New Zealand election 2026 polls
Sat House of Representatives · MMP
PollsD-2days to election day
Labour 29%, National 27%. TOP holds the balance.
As of , Labour has 29.2% of the party vote and National 27.2%, a gap of 2.0 points, in the Sondagio average of the latest poll from 5 pollsters. On those numbers the National–ACT–NZ First government would win 57 seats and Labour–Greens–Te Pāti Māori 59, both short of the 63 needed for a majority, leaving The Opportunity Party (8 seats) to decide.
- 5pollsters in the average
- 2.0 ptsLabour–National gap
- 8TOP seats (projected)
- 63seats for a majority (124 with overhang)
Who can govern? Seat projection by bloc
MMP · Sainte-Laguë · 124 seatsNationalACTNZ First
57seats · 6 short of 63Current government (National, ACT, NZ First)LabourGreensTe Pāti Māori
59seats · 4 short of 63Opposition (Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori)TOP
8seats · needed by either blocThe Opportunity PartyGovernment bloc from the left, opposition from the right, TOP in between · line = majority (63)
Sondagio ProProbability of each outcome (4,000 simulations)See the offer →
New Zealand election map by region
Party vote · tap a regionLoading the map…
New Zealand · national average
Poll average
5 pollsters · every poll
Labour35 seats29.2%
National33 seats27.2%
Greens18 seats14.8%
ACT12 seats10.3%
NZ First12 seats10.0%
TOP8 seats6.5%
Te Pāti Māori6 seats1.3%
Colour = party estimated first · darker = bigger lead (< 6, 6–13, > 13 points)Too close to call (< 2 pts)
No poll is published by region. The estimate takes each region's 2023 party vote and moves it by the national change since 2023. The 7 Māori electorates cover several regions and are not in the regional figures; their votes count nationally.
New Zealand poll average
% of the party vote · seats of 124| Party | Average | Range across pollsters | Seats (projected) | 2023 vote | 2023 seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Labour | 29.2% | 27.5 – 30.7 | 35 | 26.9 | 34 |
 National | 27.2% | 24.8 – 29.5 | 33 | 38.1 | 48 |
 Green | 14.8% | 13.0 – 16.4 | 18 | 11.6 | 15 |
 ACT | 10.3% | 9.8 – 11.0 | 12 | 8.6 | 11 |
 NZ First | 10.0% | 8.4 – 12.0 | 12 | 6.1 | 8 |
 The Opportunity Party | 6.5% | 5.1 – 8.0 | 8 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Te Pāti MāoriTe Pāti Māori | 1.3% | 0.4 – 2.0 | 6 | 3.1 | 6 |
Logos: Wikimedia Commons (public domain, except ACT: J.mcdowall, CC BY-SA 4.0, GRN: Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand, CC BY-SA 4.0).
Seats: Sondagio projection under MMP (Sainte-Laguë, 5% threshold or an electorate seat). Assumes ACT and Te Pāti Māori keep electorate seats; Te Pāti Māori keeps its 6 Māori electorates from 2023, so its seats beyond its party-vote share are overhang (4 here), which raises the majority to 63. 2023: official results, Electoral Commission.
New Zealand election polls over time
Daily averageLatest New Zealand election polls
136 polls this term · newest first| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Labour | National | Greens | ACT | NZ First | TOP | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct – 3 Nov | The Post | 1,044 | 30.7 | 26.4 | 13.0 | 9.8 | 12.0 | 5.1 | source ↗ |
| 28 Oct – 3 Nov | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 28.4 | 28.9 | 14.4 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 5.8 | source ↗ |
| 29 Oct – 2 Nov | 1 News–Verian | 1,006 | 28.8 | 29.5 | 16.4 | 10.0 | 8.4 | 6.2 | source ↗ |
| 20 Oct – 26 Oct | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 30.6 | 24.8 | 14.5 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 7.2 | source ↗ |
| 28 Sept – 25 Oct | Roy Morgan | 859 | 27.5 | 26.5 | 15.5 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | source ↗ |
| 21 Oct – 25 Oct | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 27.3 | 28.9 | 14.8 | 12.4 | 10.0 | 6.3 | source ↗ |
| 9 Oct – 19 Oct | The Post | 1,458 | 28.7 | 27.6 | 14.3 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 5.4 | source ↗ |
| 15 Oct – 19 Oct | 1 News–Verian | 1,003 | 27.0 | 32.0 | 16.0 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | source ↗ |
| 8 Oct – 12 Oct | 1 News–Verian | 1,007 | 28.0 | 28.0 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | source ↗ |
| 6 Oct – 10 Oct | Anacta | 1,352 | 29.0 | 28.0 | 15.0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 5.4 | source ↗ |
| 1 Oct – 5 Oct | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 28.2 | 28.5 | 13.3 | 9.2 | 12.0 | 4.8 | source ↗ |
| 1 Oct – 5 Oct | 1 News–Verian | 1,001 | 28.0 | 29.0 | 16.0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | source ↗ |
| 24 Sept – 1 Oct | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 30.8 | 25.9 | 14.8 | 9.0 | 10.6 | 5.5 | source ↗ |
| 31 Aug – 27 Sept | Roy Morgan | 859 | 23.5 | 31.0 | 16.0 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 6.5 | source ↗ |
| 23 Sept – 27 Sept | 1 News–Verian | 1,004 | 28.0 | 28.0 | 16.0 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 6.0 | source ↗ |
| 4 Sept – 11 Sept | The Post | 1,011 | 28.0 | 26.5 | 13.6 | 8.7 | 12.6 | 6.3 | source ↗ |
| 4 Sept – 10 Sept | Anacta | 1,701 | 31.0 | 30.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | source ↗ |
| 1 Sept – 3 Sept | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 25.9 | 29.0 | 13.9 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 4.5 | source ↗ |
| 27 Jul – 23 Aug | Roy Morgan | 858 | 24.0 | 31.0 | 15.5 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 9.5 | source ↗ |
| 14 Aug – 21 Aug | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 32.2 | 29.1 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 5.3 | source ↗ |
| 1 Aug – 11 Aug | Talbot Mills | – | 34.0 | 29.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 13.0 | 5.2 | source ↗ |
| 8 Aug – 11 Aug | 1 News–Verian | 847 | 30.0 | 29.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | source ↗ |
| 1 Aug – 4 Aug | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 27.8 | 31.0 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 6.1 | source ↗ |
| 29 Jun – 26 Jul | Roy Morgan | 881 | 25.5 | 32.0 | 13.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.0 | source ↗ |
| 10 Jul – 19 Jul | Talbot Mills | – | 33.0 | 31.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 4.7 | source ↗ |
| 2 Jul – 9 Jul | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 34.0 | 28.7 | 10.3 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 4.7 | source ↗ |
| 1 Jul – 5 Jul | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 31.5 | 30.5 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 10.8 | 3.3 | source ↗ |
| 25 May – 21 Jun | Roy Morgan | 891 | 25.5 | 31.0 | 13.5 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 6.5 | source ↗ |
| 13 Jun – 17 Jun | 1 News–Verian | 1,001 | 32.0 | 29.0 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 4.6 | source ↗ |
| 5 Jun – 11 Jun | The Post | 1,038 | 35.3 | 28.9 | 10.4 | 8.1 | 12.0 | – | source ↗ |
| 1 Jun – 10 Jun | Talbot Mills | 1,021 | 34.0 | 29.0 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 3.3 | source ↗ |
| 4 Jun – 8 Jun | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 32.2 | 30.1 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 3.2 | source ↗ |
| 27 Apr – 24 May | Roy Morgan | 870 | 26.5 | 30.5 | 12.5 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 6.0 | source ↗ |
| 1 May – 10 May | Talbot Mills | – | 36.0 | 29.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 14.0 | – | source ↗ |
| 3 May – 7 May | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 31.9 | 30.0 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 11.7 | 2.8 | source ↗ |
| 30 Mar – 26 Apr | Roy Morgan | 887 | 34.0 | 25.5 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 4.0 | source ↗ |
| 16 Apr | Talbot Mills | 1,082 | 36.0 | 29.0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 15.0 | 2.3 | source ↗ |
| 11 Apr – 15 Apr | 1 News–Verian | 1,010 | 37.0 | 30.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 3.3 | source ↗ |
| 1 Apr – 2 Apr | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 33.4 | 29.8 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 13.6 | 2.6 | source ↗ |
| 23 Feb – 22 Mar | Roy Morgan | 872 | 34.0 | 26.5 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 4.0 | source ↗ |
How we calculate
- Average: each pollster's latest poll with fieldwork ending in the 21 days before the newest poll, simple mean per party.
- Seats: MMP allocation of 120 seats by the Sainte-Laguë method among parties with at least 5% of the party vote or an electorate seat, plus overhang. Electorate seats are assumptions, not polled.
- Blocs are the current government and the parties that formed the opposition in this parliament. This is seat arithmetic, not a prediction of who will form a government.
- Data: every published poll, compiled on Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). Each row links to the original release.
- Map: 2023 party votes of the 64 general electorates (official count, New Zealand Gazette 2023-au5158), summed by region; an electorate crossing a boundary counts in the region holding most of it, West Coast–Tasman in both. Estimate: logit swing of each party by its national change from the 2023 result to the current average. Boundaries: geoBoundaries (CC BY 4.0).
- Election day (7 November, midnight to 7pm): no new content is published on this page, in line with New Zealand's election-day rules.