Victorian election 2026 polls

Labor from the left, Coalition from the right · line = majority (45)

Read this as a rough guide. The estimate moves every district's 2022 Labor-v-Coalition result by the same statewide two-party swing. One Nation polls around 22% on first preferences and could finish in the final two in many districts, where a Labor-v-Coalition swing says little. Seats where the 2022 contest was not Labor v Coalition (Greens and independent seats), or whose member has since changed party, are counted as uncertain.

No poll is published by district. The estimate takes each district's 2022 two-party-preferred result (VEC) and moves it by the statewide change since 2022. Boundaries are unchanged since 2022.

Party	Average	Range across pollsters	2022 vote
CoalitionLiberal/National Coalition	30.1%	28.0 – 33.0	34.5
Labor	23.9%	22.5 – 25.0	37.0
One Nation	22.2%	20.0 – 24.0	0.3
Greens	14.4%	12.5 – 16.0	11.5
OthersOthers	9.4%	6.0 – 13.5	16.7
Two-party-preferred	Coalition 55.7 · Labor 44.3	Labor 44.0 – 45.0	Labor 55.0

Logos: Wikimedia Commons (public domain, except ALP: Snowyally, CC BY-SA 4.0, GRN: Australian Greens Party, CC BY-SA 2.5 au, ONP: LeoC12, CC BY-SA 4.0).

Two-party-preferred: Labor v Coalition after preferences, from the 3 pollsters that publish it (Resolve does not). Others include independents. 2022: official results, Victorian Electoral Commission.

• Average: each pollster's latest poll with fieldwork ending in the 28 days before the newest poll, simple mean per party. Two-party-preferred (Labor v Coalition) is averaged over the pollsters that publish it; other match-ups (Labor or Coalition v One Nation) are not used.
• Not in the average: polls commissioned by a party (the Online Research Unit poll for the Victorian Greens) and MRP seat projections (YouGov). They are listed and marked.
• Seat estimate: each district's 2022 Labor two-party-preferred share plus the statewide change since 2022 (-10.7 points). A district is "ahead" for the party above 50%; under 1 point is too close to call. Districts where the 2022 final two were not Labor v Coalition, Narracan (no 2022 two-party count after its supplementary election), Prahran (won by the Liberals at a 2025 by-election) and the two seats held by Independent Labor members are uncertain.
• This is seat arithmetic on one assumption, not a forecast: swings differ by district, and One Nation, the Greens and independents can reach the final two.
• No poll blackout applies in Victoria, so this page keeps updating until election day.
• Sources: Opinion polling for the 2026 Victorian state election (Wikipedia) (CC BY-SA 4.0); VEC, 2022 two-party-preferred results, all districts; 2026 Victorian state election, pre-election pendulum (Wikipedia) (CC BY-SA 4.0); 2022 Victorian state election, post-election pendulum (Wikipedia) (CC BY-SA 4.0); Vicmap Admin – State Assembly Polygon 2022 (DEECA) (CC BY 4.0). Each poll row links to the original release.