Poland election 2027 polls

Governing parties from the left, right-wing opposition from the right · line = majority (231 of 460)

Parties near the threshold

Small changes around 5% move many seats. Projection with each of these parties on the other side of the line (others unchanged):

Party	Average	Scenario	Its seats	Governing parties	PiS + Konf. + KKP
R+R+	5.2%	drops below 5%	0	212	248
Razem	4.3%	clears 5%	5	209	237

Cross-check: one national D'Hondt count across 460 seats (no constituencies) gives the governing parties 202 and PiS–Konfederacja–KKP 232. The constituency projection gives larger parties more seats, as real Sejm elections do, because many constituencies elect 7 to 12 MPs.

No poll is published by region. The estimate takes each constituency's official 2023 result and moves it by the national change since 2023 (proportional swing), then adds up the constituencies of each voivodeship.

Party	Average	Range across pollsters	Seats (projected)	Threshold
Civic Coalition (KO)	32.1%	29.8 – 34.3	189	8%
Law and Justice (PiS)	22.9%	20.4 – 26.4	134	5%
KonfederacjaConfederation (Konfederacja)	12.8%	10.1 – 14.9	62	5%
Confederation of the Polish Crown (KKP, Braun)	9.4%	7.3 – 13.0	44	5%
The Left (Lewica)	7.2%	6.1 – 8.0	22	5%
R+Development Plus (R+)	5.2%	4.0 – 6.2	9	5%
Razem	4.3%	3.6 – 5.8	0	5%
Polish People's Party (PSL)	3.8%	2.8 – 5.5	0	5%
Poland 2050 (Polska 2050)	1.4%	0.0 – 2.6	0	5%
Others	0.8%	–	0	–

Logos: Wikimedia Commons (public domain, except PSL: Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe, CC BY-SA 3.0 pl).

6 parties clear the threshold in today's average. 2023 result (official, PKW): PiS 35.38% (194 seats), KO 30.70% (157 seats), Third Way (Polska 2050 + PSL) 14.40% (65 seats), Lewica (incl. Razem) 8.61% (26 seats), Konfederacja (incl. KKP) 7.16% (18 seats).

Party figures are shares of decided voters (undecided removed, the rest scaled to 100); the undecided column is the share each pollster published.

• Average: each pollster's latest poll with fieldwork ending in the 21 days before the newest poll, simple mean per party, as shares of decided voters ("don't know" removed, the rest scaled to 100).
• Seats: 460 seats in 41 constituencies (seat numbers as in 2023), allocated by the D'Hondt method in each constituency among lists with at least 5% of the national vote (8% for coalition committees; KO is assumed to run as a coalition again, as in 2023). The German Minority is exempt from the threshold and keeps its 2023 vote. Applied to the 2023 results, this method reproduces the official seat count (PiS 194, KO 157, Third Way 65, Lewica 26, Konfederacja 18).
• Base: official 2023 Sejm results by constituency (PKW). Lists have changed since 2023, so 2023 votes are split by the current poll ratio of the parties that shared a list: Third Way → Polska 2050 and PSL; Lewica (which included Razem) → Lewica and Razem; Konfederacja (which included Grzegorz Braun's party) → Konfederacja and KKP; PiS → PiS and R+ (Development Plus, which polls list separately); all other lists → others. Each party's share in each constituency then moves by its national change (proportional swing) and is adjusted so the national total equals the poll average.
• Assumptions not in the polls: every party runs on its own list with the same thresholds; alliances or joint lists would change the seat maths. Blocs are the parties of the current government and the right-wing opposition; this is seat arithmetic, not a prediction of who will form a government.
• Election date: not yet set. Under article 98 of the Constitution the President orders the election for a non-working day in the 30 days before the end of the Sejm's four-year term, so October–November 2027.
• Election silence (Electoral Code art. 115): no poll may be published from midnight before the day before voting until polls close. This page is not updated during that period.
• Data: every published poll, compiled on Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0); each row links to the original release. 2023 results: PKW. Map boundaries: geoBoundaries (CC BY 4.0).