Argentina election 2027 polls

• Argentines elect a president and vice-president on a joint ticket for four years; voting is compulsory for citizens aged 18 to 70. Javier Milei, the libertarian economist elected in 2023, can run for a second consecutive term.
• The same day, half of the Chamber of Deputies (130 of 257 seats) and a third of the Senate (24 of 72 seats) are renewed.
• La Libertad Avanza (LLA) is Milei's party. Its main rival is Peronism, Argentina's dominant political movement since the 1940s, which runs as Fuerza Patria (FP); its most-polled figure is Axel Kicillof, governor of Buenos Aires province.
• The smaller forces: PRO, the centre-right party of former president Mauricio Macri, which has allied with Milei in Congress; the UCR (Radical Civic Union), the country's oldest party; the Trotskyist Left Front (FIT-U); and Provincias Unidas, a centrist alliance of provincial governors.

Coalition	Average (valid votes)	As published	Range across pollsters	Polls
La Libertad Avanza (Milei)	40.2%	34.0%	35.3 – 46.7	13
Fuerza Patria (Peronists)	37.2%	31.5%	23.8 – 43.7	13
FIT-U (Workers' Left Front)	7.5%	6.4%	3.5 – 10.5	13
PRO (Republican Proposal)	7.3%	6.2%	4.5 – 12.5	9
Provincias Unidas (governors' coalition)	5.3%	4.3%	1.2 – 9.8	9
UCR (Radical Civic Union)	2.7%	2.0%	2.4 – 3.0	2
OthersOthers	7.8%	6.8%	3.8 – 20.9	10

Logos: Wikimedia Commons (public domain).

Valid votes: we remove blank votes and abstention and rescale the rest to 100, which is how votes are counted for the first-round rule (it uses valid affirmative votes). "As published" is the average of the original figures, blank votes included. "Polls" = how many of the 13 pollsters ask about that coalition. LLA leads in 7 of them and Fuerza Patria in 5 (1 tied).

A presidential ticket wins outright in the first round with more than 45% of valid affirmative votes, or at least 40% with a lead of more than 10 points over the runner-up. Otherwise the top two tickets go to a second round (the "balotaje"), expected around November 21, 2027. It is a lower bar than in most two-round systems: in 2015 and 2023 nobody cleared it, and both runoffs were won by the candidate who came second in round one.

We apply the rule to the averages as they stand today. The election is almost a year away, the candidates are not settled, and blank answers in polls are not the same as blank votes on the day, so this is not a prediction of who will win.

The most-tested match-up is Javier Milei against Axel Kicillof: they appear together in 9 of the 9 recent pollsters. In those polls Milei averages 38.8% and Kicillof 27.9%, a gap of 10.9 points; Milei leads in 8 of 9.

Candidate	Coalition	Average	Range	Pollsters testing them
Javier Milei	LLA	38.8%	30.5 – 55.4	9 of 9
Axel Kicillof	FP	27.9%	13.8 – 37.1	9 of 9
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner	FP	12.8%	10.9 – 14.7	2 of 9
Myriam Bregman	FIT-U	10.2%	8.9 – 12.0	8 of 9
Sergio Massa	FP	8.3%	5.6 – 15.4	6 of 9
Victoria Villarruel	PD	7.7%	6.8 – 8.6	2 of 9
Juan Schiaretti	PU	4.5%	1.9 – 7.1	2 of 9
Mauricio Macri	PRO	4.2%	4.1 – 4.2	2 of 9
Juan Grabois	FP	2.5%	2.3 – 2.7	2 of 9

Photos via Wikimedia Commons, cropped and halftoned: Javier Milei: Cancillería Argentina, CC BY 2.0 · Axel Kicillof: autor desconocido, Public domain · Cristina Fernández de Kirchner: Víctor Bugge, CC BY 2.0 · Sergio Massa: Palácio do Planalto from Brasilia, Brasil, CC BY 2.0 · Guillermo Moreno: Gastón Cuello, CC BY-SA 4.0 · Juan Grabois: Esquerda.net, CC BY-SA 2.0 · Mauricio Macri: Casa Rosada (Argentina Presidency of the Nation), CC BY 2.5 ar · Juan Schiaretti: MRECIC ARG, CC BY-SA 2.0 · Myriam Bregman: HCDN, Public domain · Victoria Villarruel: Senado de la Nación Argentina, CC BY-SA 4.0.

Each pollster tests different names, so the averages do not add up to 100 and candidates who appear in few polls cannot be compared directly. For each candidate we take each pollster's latest poll that included them in the 90 days before the newest one (November 6, 2026); when a pollster published several scenarios on the same day, we average them. † One poll only. Guillermo Moreno appears only in older polls. Victoria Villarruel is Milei's vice-president, now estranged from him; the source lists her as PD. The source lists Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (president 2007–2015) and Guillermo Moreno among politicians barred from office by a court ruling.

Argentina's open, simultaneous and compulsory primaries (PASO), in which every voter takes part and every party picks its tickets on the same day, are still law (Law 26,571), set for the second Sunday of August. In April 2026 the government sent Congress a bill to suspend them for 2027, but as of early November 2026 the Senate had not voted on it and the governing party lacked the votes, according to Filo.news (November 1, 2026, in Spanish) ↗.

If they go ahead, they would be in August 2027 and the poll ban would also apply before them. We will update this section when Congress decides.

The map shows who carried each district (the 23 provinces and the city of Buenos Aires) in the November 19, 2023 runoff between Javier Milei (LLA) and Sergio Massa (Unión por la Patria, the Peronist coalition at the time), for reference. There are not enough provincial polls to estimate 2027, so we do not estimate results by district.

• 2023 primaries: none of the 12 polls reviewed by the fact-checker Chequeado foresaw that Milei would win about 30% of the vote; on average they had him third, on 18.9%. Chequeado (Spanish) ↗
• National midterm of October 26, 2025: La Libertad Avanza took more than 40% of the vote, a wider win than most polls expected. iProfesional (Spanish) ↗
• The error has not always run the same way: in the Buenos Aires province election of September 2025, several polls overstated La Libertad Avanza. El Cronista (Spanish) ↗

An average reduces the weight of any single poll, but it cannot correct an error that all of them share.

Figures as published (% with blank and abstention included). One pollster may publish several scenarios with different candidates. *Lead: gap between the top two, calculated by Sondagio from the row's figures (in some rows it differs from the one shown by the source).

• Valid votes: from each poll we remove blank votes and abstention and rescale the rest to 100. The average uses these figures, which is why they are higher than the ones each pollster publishes.
• Coalition average: each pollster's latest poll with fieldwork ending in the 90 days before the newest poll; simple mean per coalition. We use 90 days because national polls are sparse.
• Candidate average: for each candidate, each pollster's latest poll that included them in the same window, with the number of pollsters that tested them.
• First-round rule (Constitution, arts. 97 and 98): more than 45% of valid affirmative votes, or at least 40% with a lead of more than 10 points. We apply it to the averages as arithmetic, not as a forecast.
• Data: every published poll, compiled on Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). Each row links to the original publication.
• Map: official 2023 presidential runoff result by district. Boundaries: geoBoundaries (CC BY 4.0).
• Poll ban (veda electoral, Law 26,215, art. 44 quáter): no polls may be published from eight days before the vote until three hours after polling stations close. From midnight on October 16, 2027 until 9 p.m. on October 24 (Argentina time), the figures on this page are frozen. If PASO primaries are held, the same applies before them.
• Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. The averages are calculated by formula from every published poll; no figures are adjusted by hand.