Australian federal election polls

Two numbers, not one. Two-party-preferred shows how the vote splits once preferences flow to the final two. With One Nation level with Labor on first preferences, pollsters no longer agree on who those two are: some publish Labor v Coalition, some Labor v One Nation, several both. Each pairing is averaged only over the pollsters that publish it, so the two averages come from different polls and are never merged. At the 2025 election Labor won 55.2% against the Coalition. Essential's figures keep undecided voters and are rescaled to 100 before averaging.

Colours show who holds each seat today, shaded by how safe it was at the May 2025 election (AEC). This is not a projection: no poll is published for most seats, and the seat models above are national tallies. One Nation's two seats changed hands after 2025 (Farrer by-election; Barnaby Joyce's defection in New England). Dots mark seats with their own poll.

Coalition: Liberal, National and LNP combined (Roy Morgan and some others publish them separately). Others include independents. 2025: official results, Australian Electoral Commission.

The latest seat-by-seat model, DemosAU's MRP (fieldwork 4 Aug 2026 – 19 Sept 2026), projects Labor 84, the Coalition 34 and One Nation 24 seats. It is an estimate from one pollster's model, not a forecast, and earlier models put One Nation anywhere from 12 to 60 seats.

DemosAU MRP, 19 Sept: Labor from the left, Coalition from the right, others between · line = majority (76)

Why no uniform-swing estimate. The usual shortcut moves every seat's Labor-v-Coalition result by the national swing. With One Nation on about a quarter of the vote, it cannot show the seats where One Nation reaches the final two, and the MRP models put One Nation in dozens of them. So this page shows only the seat-by-seat models, each with its date, and they disagree widely: read them as a range, not a prediction. In the House today (25 June 2026, Wikipedia): Labor 94, Coalition 41 (Liberal 27, National 14), One Nation 2, Greens 1, crossbench 12. One Nation's two seats came from Barnaby Joyce's defection and the Farrer by-election.

Single-seat polls use small samples (under 200 in the Tasmanian seats); they show local contests the national average cannot, not reliable seat calls.

• Barnaby Joyce leaves the Nationals for One Nation: One Nation rose with all 7 (+6.1); Liberal/National Coalition fell with 6 of 7 pollsters (-2.8); Labor fell with 6 of 7 pollsters (-2.4).
• The Coalition splits, reunites, and Angus Taylor replaces Sussan Ley: One Nation rose with 8 of 9 pollsters (+4.9); Others fell with 8 of 9 pollsters (-1.3).
• The Strait of Hormuz closes and Australia faces a fuel crisis: The polls barely moved: no party or candidate changed by more than 0.9 points on average.
• One Nation wins Farrer, then the 2026 budget: One Nation rose with 9 of 10 pollsters (+3.5).

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Each pollster's newest national poll since the 2025 election, with how many it has published. Roy Morgan, Newspoll, Resolve, YouGov and Essential poll most often; the average uses only polls from the last 28 days.

2PP columns show the figures as published (Labor first). Essential's do not add to 100 because they keep undecided voters.

• Average: each pollster's latest poll with fieldwork ending in the 28 days before the newest poll, simple mean per party. Today that is 8 polls from 8 pollsters.
• Two-party-preferred: Labor v Coalition and Labor v One Nation are averaged separately, each over the pollsters that publish it. A poll published with several pairings counts in each. Figures that keep undecided voters (Essential) are rescaled to 100 first.
• Coalition: Liberal, National and LNP figures are added together when a pollster publishes them separately. Others include independents.
• Not in the average: MRP seat projections (DemosAU, RedBridge/Accent, YouGov). They are listed and marked, and their seat tallies appear in the seat section.
• Seats: no uniform-swing estimate (see above). The MRP tallies are the pollsters' own models, shown as published.
• No poll blackout applies in Australia, so this page keeps updating until election day.
• Sources: Opinion polling for the next Australian federal election (Wikipedia) (CC BY-SA 4.0); Next Australian federal election, pre-election standings (Wikipedia) (CC BY-SA 4.0); Australian Electoral Commission, 2025 federal election results. Each poll row links to the original release.