Flashpoints: events and the polls
Each page takes one event and compares every pollster with itself: its last poll before and its first poll after. Newest first, race by race.
The polls moved after these events. That does not mean the events caused the change: other news happened in the same weeks, and each poll has a margin of error of about 2 to 3 points.
Poland: Parliamentary election
Same pollster, before and after- · The Constitutional Tribunal crisis: Civic Coalition (KO) fell with all 3 pollsters (-1.6 points on average); Development Plus (R+) edged down with all 3 pollsters (-0.9).
- · The PiS split and Morawiecki's Rozwój Plus: Law and Justice (PiS) fell with all 7 pollsters (-4.1 points on average); The Left (Lewica) fell with 6 of 7 pollsters (-1.3).
Italy: General election
Same pollster, before and after- · The 2027 budget and the centre-left's primaries plan: Futuro Nazionale edged down with all 6 pollsters (-0.5).
- · Italy's new electoral law (2026): The polls barely moved: no party or candidate changed by more than 0.6 points on average.
Spain: Snap general election
Same pollster, before and after- · The Urda rail crash and the transport minister's resignation: The polls barely moved: no party or candidate changed by more than 0.9 points on average.
- · Sánchez calls a snap election for 29 November: Podemos edged down with all 12 pollsters (-1.2); Adelante Andalucía edged up with all 4 pollsters (+0.5).
- · Former minister Ábalos sentenced to 24 years: The polls barely moved: no party or candidate changed by more than 0.2 points on average.
- · The Adamuz rail crash: The polls barely moved: no party or candidate changed by more than 0.5 points on average.
France: Presidential election 2027
Same pollster, before and after- · The 2026 protests and riots in France: Édouard Philippe fell with all 4 pollsters (-3.7 points on average); Raphaël Glucksmann rose with all 4 (+1.9); Marine Le Pen rose with 3 of 4 pollsters (+1.3).
United States: 2028 Democratic primary
Same pollster, before and after- · Newsom says he won't run if Harris does: No party or candidate moved the same way with every pollster.
- · Newsom discloses a Justice Department investigation: No party or candidate moved the same way with every pollster.
Estonia: Parliamentary election
Same pollster, before and after- · Estonia's coalition loses its majority and the defence minister resigns: Parempoolsed rose with all 3 (+2.4); Centre Party (Keskerakond) fell with all 3 pollsters (-1.7 points on average).
- · Estonia's 2025 municipal elections: Conservative People's Party (EKRE) fell with all 3 pollsters (-2.8 points on average); Isamaa rose with all 3 (+2.3).
- · Kristen Michal removes the Social Democrats from government: Social Democratic Party (SDE) fell with all 3 pollsters (-1.9 points on average); Centre Party (Keskerakond) edged up with all 3 pollsters (+1.2); Others (Greens, Koos, Left Alliance, ERK, others) edged up with all 3 pollsters (+1.0).
United States: 2028 Republican primary
Same pollster, before and after- · Trump tells donors 'we need to elect JD': Donald Trump Jr. rose with 3 of 4 pollsters (+2.5).
Finland: Parliamentary election
Same pollster, before and after- · The STEA grants dispute and the Garden Helsinki arena affair: Finns Party (PS) rose with all 2 (+2.0); National Coalition Party (KOK) edged down with all 2 pollsters (-1.1); Social Democratic Party (SDP) edged down with all 2 pollsters (-0.7).
- · Finns Party MPs' posts and the prime minister's apology to Asian countries: Left Alliance (VAS) edged up with all 2 pollsters (+1.1); Finns Party (PS) edged down with all 2 pollsters (-0.7).
- · Finland's 2025 municipal and county elections: Finns Party (PS) fell with all 2 pollsters (-3.9 points on average); Centre Party (KESK) rose with all 2 (+1.8); National Coalition Party (KOK) edged up with all 2 pollsters (+0.6).
Australia: Federal election
Same pollster, before and after- · One Nation wins Farrer, then the 2026 budget: One Nation rose with 9 of 10 pollsters (+3.5).
- · The Strait of Hormuz closes and Australia faces a fuel crisis: The polls barely moved: no party or candidate changed by more than 0.9 points on average.
- · The Coalition splits, reunites, and Angus Taylor replaces Sussan Ley: One Nation rose with 8 of 9 pollsters (+4.9); Others fell with 8 of 9 pollsters (-1.3).
- · Barnaby Joyce leaves the Nationals for One Nation: One Nation rose with all 7 (+6.1); Liberal/National Coalition fell with 6 of 7 pollsters (-2.8); Labor fell with 6 of 7 pollsters (-2.4).