New South Wales election 2027 polls

Two-party-preferred: Labor v Coalition after preferences, from the 2 of 3 pollsters that publish it (Insightfully does not). Others include independents. 2023: official results, NSW Electoral Commission.

No seat estimate. No poll is published by district, and the usual shortcut, moving every district's 2023 Labor-v-Coalition result by the statewide two-party swing, cannot show where One Nation, on about 26% of first preferences, reaches the final two or wins. With One Nation that strong, such a count would mislead, so this page shows the vote, not seats. 47 of 93 seats are needed for a majority.

Optional preferential voting. Unlike Victoria and federal elections, NSW voters may number just one box. Many ballots stop counting before the final two (they "exhaust"), so preferences flow more weakly than in Victoria, and the two-party-preferred figures above, which pollsters estimate from past preference flows, are less certain. It matters most where One Nation and the Coalition split the right-of-centre vote.

Until early 2026 most pollsters did not list One Nation separately (–); its vote was counted in Others. Those polls are shown but not averaged.

• Average: each pollster's latest poll with fieldwork ending in the 90 days before the newest poll, simple mean per party. Two-party-preferred (Labor v Coalition) is averaged over the pollsters that publish it; other match-ups (Labor or Coalition v One Nation) are not used.
• Others: independents plus other parties. When a poll publishes neither, Others is what remains of 100% after Labor, the Coalition, the Greens and One Nation.
• Not in the average: polls commissioned by a party, MRP seat projections, and polls that do not list One Nation separately. Party-commissioned polls and MRPs are listed and marked.
• A poll run in two waves (Resolve, August and September) is dated from the first day of fieldwork to the last.
• Trend: the same average computed for each day since 15 March 2026, when the window first held only polls that list One Nation separately.
• No seat estimate is shown: there are no district polls, and a uniform two-party swing ignores One Nation.
• No poll blackout applies in New South Wales, so this page keeps updating until election day.
• Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. The averages are calculated by formula from every published poll; no figures are adjusted by hand.
• Sources: Opinion polling for the 2027 New South Wales state election (Wikipedia) (CC BY-SA 4.0); NSW Electoral Commission, 2023 State General Election results. Poll compilation from Wikipedia, licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0. Each poll row links to the original release.