Estonia election 2027 polls
Sun Riigikogu · 101 seats
PollsD-115days to election day
Centre 21.6%, Isamaa 20.3%, SDE 16.9%.
As of , Centre Party (Keskerakond) leads the polls for Estonia's Riigikogu election with 21.6%, 1.3 points ahead of Isamaa (20.3%) and Social Democratic Party (SDE) (16.9%). The governing Reform and Eesti 200 together have 13.6%: Reform won 31.2% in 2023 and now has 11.8%; Eesti 200, 13.3% in 2023, has 1.8%, below the 5% threshold. Average of the latest poll from 3 pollsters (Norstat, Emor and Turu-uuringute AS).
- 21.6%Centre, first
- 13.6%government (Reform and Eesti 200)
- 6parties above 5%
- 3pollsters in the average
Estonia's pollsters publish shares of decided voters. The average uses each pollster's latest poll with fieldwork ending in the 45 days before the newest one. 51 of 101 seats are needed for a majority.
Latest pollNorstat · · 1,000 voters
Centre 23.3%Isamaa 22.4%SDE 16.3%EKRE 13.2%Reform 11.2%Parempoolsed 5.4%
Flashpoints: events and the polls
Same pollster, before and after- Estonia's coalition loses its majority and the defence minister resigns: Parempoolsed rose with all 3 (+2.4); Centre Party (Keskerakond) fell with all 3 pollsters (-1.7 points on average).
- Kristen Michal removes the Social Democrats from government: Social Democratic Party (SDE) fell with all 3 pollsters (-1.9 points on average); Centre Party (Keskerakond) edged up with all 3 pollsters (+1.2); Others (Greens, Koos, Left Alliance, ERK, others) edged up with all 3 pollsters (+1.0).
- Estonia's 2025 municipal elections: Conservative People's Party (EKRE) fell with all 3 pollsters (-2.8 points on average); Isamaa rose with all 3 (+2.3).
Estonia poll average
% of decided voters · 5% threshold| Party | Average | Range across pollsters | 2023 vote | 2023 seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CentreCentre Party (Keskerakond) | 21.6% | 20.6 – 23.3 | 15.3 | 16 |
| IsamaaIsamaa | 20.3% | 19.0 – 22.4 | 8.2 | 8 |
| SDESocial Democratic Party (SDE) | 16.9% | 14.0 – 20.4 | 9.3 | 9 |
| EKREConservative People's Party (EKRE) | 15.0% | 13.2 – 18.0 | 16.1 | 17 |
| ReformReform Party (Reformierakond) | 11.8% | 10.0 – 14.2 | 31.2 | 37 |
| ParempoolsedParempoolsed | 6.6% | 5.4 – 8.0 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Eesti 200Estonia 200 (Eesti 200) | 1.8% · below 5% | 1.5 – 2.0 | 13.3 | 14 |
| OthersOthers (Greens, Koos, Left Alliance, ERK, others) | 4.2% | 3.5 – 5.0 | 4.3 | 0 |
Others: the Greens (EER), Koos, the Left Alliance (United Left in 2023–24), the Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives (ERK) and other lists. 2023: official results, Estonian electoral commission.
No seat estimate. The 101 seats are filled in 12 electoral districts and then topped up with national compensation seats among parties with at least 5% of the vote. No poll is published by district, so this page shows the vote, not seats. On the current average, Reform, EKRE, Centre, SDE, Isamaa and Parempoolsed clear the threshold; Eesti 200 does not.
Estonia election polls over time
Average since March 2023Latest Estonia election polls
264 polls since 2023 · newest first| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Centre | Isamaa | SDE | EKRE | Reform | Parempoolsed | Eesti 200 | Others | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct – 25 Oct 2026 | Norstat | 1,000 | 23.3 | 22.4 | 16.3 | 13.2 | 11.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 4.2 | source ↗ |
| 12 Oct – 21 Oct 2026 | Emor | 1,487 | 20.6 | 19.4 | 20.4 | 13.8 | 14.2 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 3.5 | source ↗ |
| 13 Oct – 18 Oct 2026 | Norstat | 1,000 | 23.0 | 22.3 | 17.6 | 14.5 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 1.4 | 2.5 | source ↗ |
| 4 Oct – 12 Oct 2026 | Norstat | 1,000 | 22.3 | 25.1 | 16.8 | 12.2 | 12.5 | 5.8 | 1.4 | 3.6 | source ↗ |
| 1 Oct – 8 Oct 2026 | Turu-uuringute AS | 899 | 21.0 | 19.0 | 14.0 | 18.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | source ↗ |
| 28 Sept – 3 Oct 2026 | Norstat | 1,000 | 22.2 | 21.8 | 15.1 | 14.9 | 13.6 | 7.2 | 1.1 | 3.6 | source ↗ |
| 22 Sept – 27 Sept 2026 | Norstat | 1,000 | 19.1 | 27.6 | 14.4 | 14.2 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 1.6 | 3.0 | source ↗ |
| 14 Sept – 23 Sept 2026 | Emor | 1,535 | 16.9 | 23.8 | 17.4 | 13.0 | 14.5 | 9.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | source ↗ |
| 14 Sept – 19 Sept 2026 | Norstat | 1,000 | 23.0 | 23.7 | 14.7 | 15.3 | 13.8 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 2.5 | source ↗ |
| 7 Sept – 13 Sept 2026 | Norstat | 1,000 | 22.0 | 21.6 | 14.0 | 12.5 | 14.7 | 8.3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | source ↗ |
| 3 Sept – 7 Sept 2026 | Turu-uuringute AS | 872 | 21.0 | 22.0 | 15.0 | 16.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | source ↗ |
| 24 Aug – 29 Aug 2026 | Norstat | 1,000 | 20.4 | 24.1 | 19.1 | 11.8 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | source ↗ |
| 17 Aug – 23 Aug 2026 | Norstat | 1,000 | 23.6 | 25.9 | 13.9 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 2.1 | source ↗ |
| 9 Aug – 15 Aug 2026 | Norstat | 1,000 | 21.2 | 22.3 | 14.4 | 13.9 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 1.6 | 3.3 | source ↗ |
| 6 Aug – 12 Aug 2026 | Turu-uuringute AS | 902 | 21.0 | 24.0 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | source ↗ |
| 2 Aug – 9 Aug 2026 | Norstat | 1,000 | 21.5 | 29.9 | 13.5 | 13.8 | 11.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | source ↗ |
| 26 Jul – 2 Aug 2026 | Norstat | 1,000 | 22.7 | 25.3 | 15.4 | 12.2 | 14.1 | 5.8 | 1.4 | 1.9 | source ↗ |
| 20 Jul – 26 Jul 2026 | Norstat | 1,000 | 23.1 | 25.1 | 15.4 | 12.9 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 3.1 | source ↗ |
| 13 Jul – 20 Jul 2026 | Norstat | 1,000 | 20.3 | 25.0 | 13.0 | 17.7 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 2.4 | source ↗ |
| 6 Jul – 16 Jul 2026 | Emor | 1,554 | 20.3 | 24.4 | 14.3 | 14.2 | 14.1 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 3.8 | source ↗ |
| 6 Jul – 13 Jul 2026 | Norstat | 1,000 | 22.4 | 27.9 | 11.8 | 15.0 | 10.3 | 7.0 | 1.6 | 4.0 | source ↗ |
| 29 Jun – 5 Jul 2026 | Norstat | 1,000 | 20.3 | 26.7 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 13.7 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 4.2 | source ↗ |
| 16 Jun – 25 Jun 2026 | Turu-uuringute AS | 906 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | source ↗ |
| 15 Jun – 20 Jun 2026 | Norstat | 1,000 | 23.0 | 26.3 | 14.6 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 1.6 | 3.6 | source ↗ |
| 8 Jun – 17 Jun 2026 | Emor | 1,587 | 21.5 | 23.5 | 16.2 | 13.4 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 2.1 | 2.8 | source ↗ |
| 8 Jun – 14 Jun 2026 | Norstat | 1,000 | 24.1 | 25.5 | 14.3 | 14.6 | 12.5 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 2.3 | source ↗ |
| 1 Jun – 5 Jun 2026 | Norstat | 1,000 | 20.0 | 25.7 | 17.8 | 13.5 | 11.7 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 3.5 | source ↗ |
| 25 May – 31 May 2026 | Norstat | 1,000 | 21.0 | 26.8 | 11.3 | 13.4 | 14.2 | 8.4 | 1.4 | 3.6 | source ↗ |
| 18 May – 23 May 2026 | Norstat | 1,000 | 21.6 | 28.0 | 12.5 | 14.3 | 11.4 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | source ↗ |
| 11 May – 20 May 2026 | Emor | 1,429 | 20.6 | 23.5 | 17.4 | 13.9 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 2.4 | 3.6 | source ↗ |
| 11 May – 17 May 2026 | Norstat | 1,000 | 20.2 | 28.9 | 14.1 | 13.0 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 1.0 | 4.3 | source ↗ |
| 7 May – 13 May 2026 | Turu-uuringute AS | 903 | 25.0 | 20.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | source ↗ |
| 4 May – 10 May 2026 | Norstat | 1,000 | 21.9 | 24.4 | 14.2 | 14.3 | 11.7 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 4.7 | source ↗ |
| 27 Apr – 3 May 2026 | Norstat | 1,000 | 23.3 | 25.9 | 15.8 | 13.5 | 11.0 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 3.7 | source ↗ |
| 20 Apr – 26 Apr 2026 | Norstat | 1,000 | 20.9 | 27.7 | 13.5 | 13.6 | 13.0 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 4.4 | source ↗ |
| 13 Apr – 22 Apr 2026 | Emor | 1,526 | 21.9 | 25.2 | 17.0 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 2.5 | source ↗ |
| 13 Apr – 19 Apr 2026 | Norstat | 1,000 | 23.7 | 25.8 | 12.7 | 14.4 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 0.7 | 3.8 | source ↗ |
| 6 Apr – 12 Apr 2026 | Norstat | 1,000 | 21.6 | 26.7 | 13.8 | 14.8 | 12.5 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 3.3 | source ↗ |
| 2 Apr – 8 Apr 2026 | Turu-uuringute AS | 876 | 23.0 | 24.0 | 14.0 | 11.0 | 14.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | source ↗ |
| 30 Mar – 5 Apr 2026 | Norstat | 1,000 | 22.6 | 24.3 | 16.6 | 12.0 | 12.6 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 4.1 | source ↗ |
The latest 40 polls. Norstat publishes a poll every week, Emor and Turu-uuringute about once a month.
How we calculate
- Average: each pollster's latest poll with fieldwork ending in the 45 days before the newest poll, simple mean per party. The window is anchored to the newest poll, not to today, so a quiet week does not empty it.
- Figures are used as published: Estonian pollsters report shares of decided voters (people who say they do not know are left out). Rounding and very small parties mean a poll's figures can add up to slightly less than 100.
- Others: the sum of the small parties (Greens, Koos, Left Alliance, ERK) and other lists shown in each poll.
- Kantar Emor renamed itself Emor in 2026; its polls count as one pollster. Rows for election results (2023 Riigikogu, 2024 European Parliament) and events (cabinet changes, the 2025 municipal elections) are skipped, as are subsamples of Estonian and other-nationality voters.
- Trend: the same average computed every other day since 17 March 2023, on days with at least two pollsters in the window.
- No seat estimate is shown: seats are allocated by district and then by national compensation seats, and there are no district polls.
- Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. The averages are calculated by formula from every published poll; no figures are adjusted by hand.
- Sources: Opinion polling for the next Estonian parliamentary election (Wikipedia) (CC BY-SA 4.0); Estonian electoral commission, 2023 Riigikogu election results. Poll compilation from Wikipedia, licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0. Each poll row links to the original release.