Germany election polls
Next federal election by at the latestBundestag · 630 seats
Polls≤864days to the latest possible election date
AfD 28%, Union 20%.
If Germany voted this Sunday, the AfD would get 27.8% in the Sondagio average of , ahead of the CDU/CSU on 19.8% (8.0 points ahead). The average takes the latest poll from each of 9 pollsters.
- AfDleading
- 8.0lead over second place
- 316seats for a majority
- 9pollsters in the average
Latest pollINSA · · 2,004 respondents
AfD 28.5%Union 19.5%Grüne 14.5%SPD 14%Linke 9.5%FDP 5%BSW 3.5%
Bundestag seat estimate
630 seats · Sainte-Laguë · 5% thresholdAfD 201Union 143Grüne 110SPD 99Linke 76SSW 1
Line = majority (316 of 630).| Party | Average | Seats | 2025 result |
|---|---|---|---|
| AfD | 27.8% | 201 | 20.8% · 152 |
| CDU/CSU | 19.8% | 143 | 28.5% · 208 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | 15.2% | 110 | 11.6% · 85 |
| SPD | 13.6% | 99 | 16.4% · 120 |
| Die Linke | 10.5% | 76 | 8.8% · 64 |
| FDP | 4.0% | below 5% | 4.3% · 0 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht | 3.2% | below 5% | 5.0% · 0 |
SSW: exempt from the 5% threshold, shown with its 2025 seat.
FDP is on 4.0%, close to the 5% threshold. If it got in, the seats would be: AfD 192, Union 137, Grüne 105, SPD 94, Linke 73, FDP 28, SSW 1.
Possible majorities
Seats on today's average · majority from 316| CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens (Kenya) | 352 | ✓ Majority |
| CDU/CSU and AfD | 344 | ✓ Majority |
| SPD, Greens and Left (red-red-green) | 285 | 31 short |
| CDU/CSU and Greens (black-green) | 253 | 63 short |
| CDU/CSU and SPD (black-red) | 242 | 74 short |
The CDU and CSU have ruled out working with the AfD by party-conference resolution. This row only shows whether the seats would add up.
Only combinations whose parties would all be in the Bundestag on the average are shown. Seat arithmetic, not a forecast of coalitions.
Polling average
% of list votes · 21-day window| Party | Average | Range across pollsters | Pollsters |
|---|---|---|---|
| AfD | 27.8% | 26.0 – 30.0 | 9 |
| CDU/CSU | 19.8% | 18.0 – 23.0 | 9 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | 15.2% | 13.0 – 16.0 | 9 |
| SPD | 13.6% | 12.0 – 15.0 | 9 |
| Die Linke | 10.5% | 9.5 – 11.0 | 9 |
| FDP | 4.0% | 3.0 – 5.0 | 9 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht | 3.2% | 3.0 – 4.0 | 7 |
Pollsters in the average: INSA, Forsa, Ipsos, Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Verian, pollytix, YouGov, GMS.
Polls since the 2025 election
Weekly values of the averageState polls
2027 state elections and polls in all 16 states| Saarland | 18 Apr 2027 | SPD 33 · AfD 21 · CDU 20 | Polls → |
| Schleswig-Holstein | 18 Apr 2027 | CDU 30 · Grüne 18 · AfD 17 | Polls → |
| Nordrhein-Westfalen | 25 Apr 2027 | CDU 29 · AfD 20 · SPD 16 | Polls → |
| Bremen | 30 May 2027 | CDU 23 · SPD 21 · AfD 16 | Polls → |
| Niedersachsen | 26 Sept 2027 | SPD 26 · CDU 22 · AfD 21 | Polls → |
| Bayern | 2028 | CSU 37 · AfD 20 · Grüne 14 | Polls → |
| Hessen | 2028 | CDU 25 · AfD 23 · Grüne 16 | Polls → |
| Brandenburg | 2029 | AfD 39 · SPD 21 · CDU 11 | Polls → |
| Sachsen | 2029 | AfD 41 · CDU 20 · Linke 9 | Polls → |
| Thüringen | 2029 | AfD 40 · CDU 18 · Linke 17 | Polls → |
| Hamburg | 2030 | SPD 30 · Grüne 18 · Linke 15 | Polls → |
| Baden-Württemberg | 2031 | Grüne 30 · CDU 23 · AfD 23 | Polls → |
| Rheinland-Pfalz | 2031 | CDU 28 · AfD 24 · SPD 19 | Polls → |
| Sachsen-Anhalt | 2031 | Polls → | |
| Mecklenburg-Vorpommern | 2031 | AfD 39 · SPD 32 · Linke 9 | Polls → |
| Berlin | 2031 | Linke 25 · CDU 18 · AfD 17 | Polls → |
All polls
419 polls since the election · newest first| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | AfD | Union | Grüne | SPD | Linke | FDP | BSW | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov – 9 Nov | INSA | 2,004 | 28.5 | 19.5 | 14.5 | 14 | 9.5 | 5 | 3.5 | source ↗ |
| 3 Nov – 9 Nov | Forsa | 2,501 | 27 | 20 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 4 | – | source ↗ |
| 4 Nov – 8 Nov | Ipsos | 2,019 | 27 | 20 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 2 Nov – 6 Nov | INSA | 1,204 | 29 | 19 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 2 Nov – 4 Nov | Infratest dimap | 1,297 | 27 | 20 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 3 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 30 Oct – 2 Nov | INSA | 2,004 | 28 | 20 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 3.5 | source ↗ |
| 27 Oct – 2 Nov | Forsa | 2,500 | 26 | 20 | 17 | 14 | 11 | 4 | – | source ↗ |
| 26 Oct – 30 Oct | INSA | 1,202 | 29 | 20 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 23 Oct – 26 Oct | INSA | 2,010 | 29.5 | 19 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 20 Oct – 26 Oct | Forsa | 2,501 | 27 | 21 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 4 | – | source ↗ |
| 19 Oct – 23 Oct | INSA | 1,209 | 30 | 19 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 20 Oct – 22 Oct | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 1,225 | 26 | 23 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 3 | – | source ↗ |
| 14 Oct – 20 Oct | Verian | 1,470 | 28 | 20 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 3 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 16 Oct – 19 Oct | pollytix | 1,300 | 29 | 19 | 14 | 15 | 11 | 5 | 4 | source ↗ |
| 16 Oct – 19 Oct | YouGov | 1,773 | 28 | 18 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 16 Oct – 19 Oct | INSA | 2,002 | 30 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 3.5 | source ↗ |
| 14 Oct – 19 Oct | GMS | 1,012 | 30 | 19 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 13 Oct – 19 Oct | Forsa | 2,502 | 27 | 20 | 17 | 13 | 11 | 4 | – | source ↗ |
| 12 Oct – 16 Oct | INSA | 1,206 | 29 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 4 | source ↗ |
| 2 Oct – 16 Oct | Allensbach | 1,048 | 27 | 23 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 4 | – | source ↗ |
| 9 Oct – 12 Oct | INSA | 2,006 | 30 | 18.5 | 14 | 13.5 | 10 | 4.5 | 3.5 | source ↗ |
| 6 Oct – 12 Oct | Forsa | 2,502 | 26 | 19 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 4 | – | source ↗ |
| 5 Oct – 9 Oct | INSA | 1,207 | 30 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 5 Oct – 7 Oct | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 1,311 | 28 | 21 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 3 | – | source ↗ |
| 2 Oct – 5 Oct | INSA | 2,002 | 30.5 | 17.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | source ↗ |
| 29 Sept – 5 Oct | Forsa | 2,502 | 26 | 19 | 17 | 14 | 11 | 4 | – | source ↗ |
| 30 Sept – 4 Oct | Ipsos | 2,002 | 28 | 20 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 4 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 28 Sept – 2 Oct | INSA | 1,202 | 30 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 4 | source ↗ |
| 28 Sept – 30 Sept | Infratest dimap | 1,303 | 27 | 20 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 4 | – | source ↗ |
| 25 Sept – 28 Sept | INSA | 2,001 | 29.5 | 19 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 10 | 4 | 3.5 | source ↗ |
| 22 Sept – 28 Sept | Forsa | 2,501 | 26 | 19 | 16 | 14 | 12 | 4 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 21 Sept – 25 Sept | INSA | 1,203 | 29 | 19 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 22 Sept – 24 Sept | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 1,346 | 28 | 21 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 3 | – | source ↗ |
| 16 Sept – 22 Sept | Verian | 1,464 | 28 | 20 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 4 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 15 Sept – 22 Sept | Forsa | 2,504 | 27 | 20 | 17 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 18 Sept – 21 Sept | INSA | 2,004 | 29.5 | 19.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | source ↗ |
| 14 Sept – 18 Sept | INSA | 1,202 | 29 | 20 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 14 Sept – 16 Sept | pollytix | 3,113 | 27 | 19 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 5 | 5 | source ↗ |
| 4 Sept – 16 Sept | Allensbach | 1,051 | 28 | 23 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 5 | – | source ↗ |
| 11 Sept – 14 Sept | YouGov | 1,787 | 29 | 18 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 4 | source ↗ |
How we calculate it
- Average: each pollster's latest poll with fieldwork ending in the 21 days before the newest poll; simple mean per party. The CDU and CSU are shown together as the Union, as pollsters report them.
- Seats: the Federal Electoral Act as reformed in 2023 and as ruled by the Federal Constitutional Court on 30 July 2024. 630 seats are shared nationally by Sainte-Laguë/Schepers among parties with at least 5% of list votes. Constituency wins no longer add seats. The three-constituency exception is not modelled. This is seat arithmetic on today's polls, not a forecast.
- Data: every published poll, as compiled on Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). Each row links to the original publication.
- No blackout: German law allows polls to be published up to election day; only exit polls are banned before 6 pm on the day.
- Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate, party or campaign. Averages come from a fixed formula over every published poll; nothing is adjusted by hand.
- Full method → · Wikipedia