Lead 1 · Philippe
Présidentielle 2027 : Édouard Philippe veut donner un coup de pouce aux familles "dès le premier enfant"
TF1 Info · 9 Oct
Philippe −3.1 pts
Coverage ×3.7 compared with the previous 4 weeks (65 articles)D-157days to the first round
Le Pen 34%, 17 points ahead of Mélenchon.
As of , Marine Le Pen has 34.3% of first-round voting intentions for the 2027 French presidential election, 16.8 points ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, in the Sondagio average of the latest poll from each of 7 pollsters (the scenario where Édouard Philippe is the centre bloc's only candidate).
- 7pollsters in the average
- 16.8 ptsgap between 1st and 2nd
- 28–37Le Pen's range
- 27poll notices read
How France elects its president
Two rounds · five-year termThe president is elected directly for five years in up to two rounds. If no candidate wins more than half of the votes cast on Sunday 18 April 2027, the top two go through to a run-off two weeks later, on Sunday 2 May. Every president since 1965 has been chosen in a run-off. Emmanuel Macron, elected in 2017 and re-elected in 2022, cannot stand again: the constitution limits a president to two consecutive terms.
To get on the ballot, a candidate needs 500 sponsorships (parrainages) signed by elected officials, mostly mayors, from at least 30 départements or overseas territories, with no more than a tenth from any one of them. The Constitutional Council checks them and publishes the official list a few weeks before the vote, so the field below is still the pollsters' list of likely candidates, not the final ballot. Marine Le Pen can stand: in July 2026 the Paris Court of Appeal upheld her 2025 conviction in the European Parliament assistants case but shortened her ban from public office so that it no longer covers 2027; she has appealed to the Court of Cassation.
French polls report intentions de vote, voting intentions: the share of people who say they would vote for each candidate, counted among those who name one. Blank votes, spoilt ballots and abstention are left out, as they are in official results, so the figures add up to 100%. Pollsters must file a notice for every published election poll with the Commission des sondages, the independent poll regulator, which makes them public; that is where every figure on this page comes from.
- Marine Le Pen: Rassemblement National (RN), nationalist right; Le Pen's party, led by Jordan Bardella · 34.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon: La France Insoumise (LFI), radical left, founded by Jean-Luc Mélenchon · 17.5%
- Édouard Philippe: Horizons / Ensemble, the centre bloc that backed Emmanuel Macron (Renaissance, MoDem, Horizons) · 15.0%
- Raphaël Glucksmann: Place Publique / Socialist Party (PS), centre-left · 12.9%
- Bruno Retailleau: Les Républicains (LR), traditional centre-right, heirs of the Gaullists · 7.3%
- Éric Zemmour: Reconquête, hard right, founded by Éric Zemmour · 4.0%
- Marine Tondelier: Les Écologistes, the Greens · 3.3%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan: Debout la France (DLF), sovereigntist right · 2.4%
France 2027 polls by département: estimated map
Estimate · Sondagio modelChargement de la carte…
France · national average
Poll average
7 pollsters, latest poll 5 November 2026 · every poll
Marine Le Pen34.3%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon17.5%
Édouard Philippe15.0%
Raphaël Glucksmann12.9%
Bruno Retailleau7.3%
Éric Zemmour4.0%
Marine Tondelier3.3%
Tap a département on the map or find yours in the list.
Estimé · avance faible → nette (plus foncé)Trop serré (< 2 pts)Estimation à partir des sondages
In Sondagio's estimate at 5 November 2026, the leader in metropolitan France is Marine Le Pen in 91 départements and Jean-Luc Mélenchon in 3 départements. 2 départements are too close to call (a lead under 2 points): Hauts-de-Seine and Val-d'Oise. These figures are modelled from the national average and the 2022 and 2024 results: no poll is published by département.
In the first round on 10 April 2022, the candidate placed first was Emmanuel Macron in 49 départements, Marine Le Pen in 42 départements and Jean-Luc Mélenchon in 10 départements, out of 101 (overseas included). Source: French Interior Ministry, final results.
51 metropolitan départements switch leading political family between the official 2022 result and today's estimate, including Ain, Hautes-Alpes, Ariège and Aveyron. The estimate compares parties, not the same people: in 2022 the top three were Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
France is divided into 101 départements (96 in metropolitan France, 5 overseas), the units results are reported in. The map's controls and the département pages it links to are in French.
France 2027 polling trend: what moved the numbers
Average · dots = polls · ■ = turning pointTurning point ·
Édouard Philippe loses 3.1 pts, Raphaël Glucksmann gains 2.6 pts
Window 9 Oct – 23 Oct · detected on the average (at least 1.5 points in 14 days) · how (in French)
Lead 2 · Glucksmann
Présidentielle 2027 : Raphaël Glucksmann enfariné après sa victoire à la primaire de la gauche sociale-démocrate (vidéo)
CNews · 12 Oct
Glucksmann +2.6 pts
Coverage ×1.7 compared with the previous 4 weeks (65 articles)Lead 3 · Mélenchon
Guillaume Tabard : « Pour Sébastien Lecornu, se défendre et démasquer Jean-Luc Mélenchon »
Le Figaro · 21 Oct
Mélenchon −1.1 pt
Coverage ×1.6 compared with the previous 4 weeks (72 articles)Heavily covered, no movement
Mobilisation lycéenne: "Moi je pense qu'il n'y a pas de violences policières, c'est un oxymore", déclare Éric Zemmour, président du parti Reconquête
BFM · 12 Oct
Zemmour: less than 0.5 points of change over the window
56 articles, the average does not moveTap a ■ to see the French media coverage from that window (headlines in French). A lead is a coincidence in time, not proof of cause.How we detect a turning point (in French)
Flashpoints: events and the polls
Same pollster, before and after- The 2026 protests and riots in France: Édouard Philippe fell with all 4 pollsters (-3.7 points on average); Raphaël Glucksmann rose with all 4 (+1.9); Marine Le Pen rose with 3 of 4 pollsters (+1.3).
French presidential election 2027 poll average
First round · % of votes cast| Candidate | Average | Pollsters' range | Pollsters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 34.3% | 28.2 – 37.0 | 7 |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 17.5% | 15.0 – 21.3 | 7 |
| Édouard Philippe | 15.0% | 13.0 – 17.0 | 7 |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 12.9% | 9.5 – 15.5 | 7 |
| Bruno Retailleau | 7.3% | 6.5 – 8.0 | 7 |
| Éric Zemmour | 4.0% | 3.0 – 4.6 | 7 |
| Marine Tondelier | 3.3% | 2.0 – 6.0 | 7 |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.4% | 2.0 – 3.3 | 7 |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.0% | 1.5 – 3.0 | 7 |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.7% | 0.0 – 1.0 | 7 |
Tested by fewer than four pollsters in this scenario: Dominique de Villepin (2.0%, 1 pollster).
Not included: OpinionWay, whose recent polls do not test this scenario (they include Gabriel Attal as well as Édouard Philippe).
And in the second round?
Polls and the Sondagio modelPoll averageSondagio model: measured vote transfers (estimate)
Le Pen v Mélenchon
Most likely run-off on first-round pollingPolls6 pollsters68.331.7
Sondagio modelmeasured vote transfers64.935.1
Le Pen v Philippe
Polls6 pollsters54.645.4
Sondagio modelmeasured vote transfers51.748.3
Le Pen v Glucksmann
Polls5 pollsters56.343.7
Sondagio modelmeasured vote transfers56.543.5
Latest French presidential election 2027 polls, pollster by pollster
Disclosures required by the Act of 19 July 1977| Pollster | Commissioned by | Fieldwork | Sample | Le Pen | Mélenchon | Philippe | Glucksmann | Retailleau | Zemmour | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sondagio average | – | to 5 Nov | 7 pollsters | 34.3 | 17.5 | 15.0 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 4.0 | method (FR) |
| Toluna Harris Interactive | – | 3 Nov – 5 Nov | 2,101±2.1 pt | 36.0 | 19.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | notice ↗ |
| Ifop | LCI | 27 Oct – 29 Oct | 1,501±2.4 pt | 37.0 | 17.5 | 15.0 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 4.0 | notice ↗ |
| Cluster17 | Politico | 19 Oct – 22 Oct | 2,817±1.7 pt | 28.2 | 21.3 | 14.8 | 14.9 | 7.9 | 4.6 | notice ↗ |
| Ipsos BVA | Le Parisien | 21 Oct – 22 Oct | 1,069±2.8 pt | 33.5 | 17.0 | 15.0 | 14.0 | 8.0 | 4.5 | notice ↗ |
| Elabe | – | 14 Oct – 16 Oct | 1,701±2.2 pt | 32.5 | 15.0 | 16.5 | 15.5 | 7.0 | 3.5 | notice ↗ |
| YouGov | Le HuffPost | 12 Oct – 15 Oct | 1,000±3.0 pt | 36.0 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | notice ↗ |
| Odoxa | Public Sénat, presse régionale, Le Nouvel Obs | 24 Sept – 7 Oct | 12,005±0.9 pt | 37.0 | 18.0 | 17.0 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 4.5 | notice ↗ |
Voting intentions as a % of votes cast, in each pollster's Marine Le Pen / Édouard Philippe scenario. The margin of error shown applies to the leading candidate's score on the full sample (95% confidence interval); it is wider on the smaller group who name a candidate. Each notice (in French), filed with the Commission des sondages, sets out the method, the dates and the other scenarios tested. Most French pollsters use quota samples interviewed online.
Presidential election 2027 by département
Pages in FrenchEach page (in French) has the estimate for that département and its past presidential results.
- 01Ain
- 02Aisne
- 03Allier
- 04Alpes-de-Haute-Provence
- 05Hautes-Alpes
- 06Alpes-Maritimes
- 07Ardèche
- 08Ardennes
- 09Ariège
- 10Aube
- 11Aude
- 12Aveyron
- 13Bouches-du-Rhône
- 14Calvados
- 15Cantal
- 16Charente
- 17Charente-Maritime
- 18Cher
- 19Corrèze
- 21Côte-d'Or
- 22Côtes-d'Armor
- 23Creuse
- 24Dordogne
- 25Doubs
- 26Drôme
- 27Eure
- 28Eure-et-Loir
- 29Finistère
- 2ACorse-du-Sud
- 2BHaute-Corse
- 30Gard
- 31Haute-Garonne
- 32Gers
- 33Gironde
- 34Hérault
- 35Ille-et-Vilaine
- 36Indre
- 37Indre-et-Loire
- 38Isère
- 39Jura
- 40Landes
- 41Loir-et-Cher
- 42Loire
- 43Haute-Loire
- 44Loire-Atlantique
- 45Loiret
- 46Lot
- 47Lot-et-Garonne
- 48Lozère
- 49Maine-et-Loire
- 50Manche
- 51Marne
- 52Haute-Marne
- 53Mayenne
- 54Meurthe-et-Moselle
- 55Meuse
- 56Morbihan
- 57Moselle
- 58Nièvre
- 59Nord
- 60Oise
- 61Orne
- 62Pas-de-Calais
- 63Puy-de-Dôme
- 64Pyrénées-Atlantiques
- 65Hautes-Pyrénées
- 66Pyrénées-Orientales
- 67Bas-Rhin
- 68Haut-Rhin
- 69Rhône
- 70Haute-Saône
- 71Saône-et-Loire
- 72Sarthe
- 73Savoie
- 74Haute-Savoie
- 75Paris
- 76Seine-Maritime
- 77Seine-et-Marne
- 78Yvelines
- 79Deux-Sèvres
- 80Somme
- 81Tarn
- 82Tarn-et-Garonne
- 83Var
- 84Vaucluse
- 85Vendée
- 86Vienne
- 87Haute-Vienne
- 88Vosges
- 89Yonne
- 90Territoire de Belfort
- 91Essonne
- 92Hauts-de-Seine
- 93Seine-Saint-Denis
- 94Val-de-Marne
- 95Val-d'Oise
- 971Guadeloupe
- 972Martinique
- 973Guyane
- 974La Réunion
- 976Mayotte
Every French presidential election 2027 poll filed
27 notices · Commission des sondages- 5 NovToluna Harris Interactivenotice ↗
- 29 OctIfop for LCInotice ↗
- 22 OctCluster17 for Politiconotice ↗
- 22 OctIpsos BVA for Le Parisiennotice ↗
- 22 OctOpinionWay for Cnewsnotice ↗
- 21 OctToluna Harris Interactivenotice ↗
- 19 OctIfopnotice ↗
- 16 OctElabenotice ↗
- 15 OctYouGov for Le HuffPostnotice ↗
- 14 OctOpinionWay for Cnewsnotice ↗
- 8 OctToluna Harris Interactivenotice ↗
- 7 OctOdoxa for Public Sénat, presse régionale, Le Nouvel Obsnotice ↗
- 29 SeptIfopnotice ↗
- 21 SeptYouGov for Huffpostnotice ↗
- 16 SeptCluster17 for Politiconotice ↗
- 10 SeptToluna Harris Interactive for RTLnotice ↗
- 10 SeptOpinionWay for Cnewsnotice ↗
- 3 SeptOpinionWay for JDDnotice ↗
- 2 SeptIpsos BVA for Le Parisiennotice ↗
- 1 SeptCluster17 for Le Pointnotice ↗
- 28 AugElabenotice ↗
- 25 AugIfopnotice ↗
- 8 JulToluna Harris Interactive for RTLnotice ↗
- 24 JunIfop for Le Figaronotice ↗
- 11 JunOpinionWay for JDDnotice ↗
- 26 MarOpinionWay for LOpinionnotice ↗
- 12 SeptOpinionWay for Challengesnotice ↗
How we calculate
- Average: each pollster's latest poll in the 35 days before the newest one, simple mean per candidate, in the scenario most pollsters test.
- Département map: an estimate, not a poll. It moves each département's 2022 and 2024 results by the national change in the polls; no poll is published at département level.
- Second round: polls of each possible run-off, plus a Sondagio model built from measured vote transfers: each first-round electorate as the polls measure it, moved toward what it did in the 2024 run-offs as far as 2017 and 2022 suggest.
- Poll ban: French law (Act no. 77-808 of 19 July 1977, art. 11) forbids publishing or commenting on any election poll on the day before and the day of each round, and treats simulations built from polls as polls. This page, its map, model and forecast therefore stop updating from Saturday 17 April, 00:00 to Sunday 18 April, 20:00 and from Saturday 1 May, 00:00 to Sunday 2 May, 20:00 (Paris time), when the last polling stations in metropolitan France close.
- Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. The averages are calculated by formula from every published poll; no figures are adjusted by hand.
- Full method, in French: sondagio.com/fr-fr/methode. The French version of this page: Sondages présidentielle 2027, 1er tour.