Italy election 2027 polls

• Italy's new electoral law (2026): The polls barely moved: no party or candidate changed by more than 0.6 points on average.
• The 2027 budget and the centre-left's primaries plan: Futuro Nazionale edged down with all 6 pollsters (-0.5).

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Bloc figures are each pollster's published centre-left (CSX) and centre-right (CDX) totals, averaged like parties; they include small allied lists not shown separately, so they can exceed the sum of the parties listed. Who runs in which coalition is decided when lists are filed.

• Law no. 180 of 9 October 2026 (Gazzetta Ufficiale no. 235, 9 October 2026) replaces the mixed Rosatellum with a proportional system with a majority bonus. It is in force from 24 October 2026 (text on Normattiva ↗).
• Thresholds: 3% nationally for a list, 10% for a coalition. Within a coalition, press reports describe a recovery (“ripescaggio”) for the best-placed list below 3% (ANSA ↗).
• Bonus: 70 Chamber seats (35 in the Senate) go to the single list or the coalition of lists with the most valid votes nationally, if it reaches at least 42%. The law's text says “lista singola o coalizione di liste”, so it can be either; with today's alliances the contest is between coalitions (art. 1 ↗, Il Fatto Quotidiano ↗).
• Cap: with the bonus, the winner cannot exceed 220 of the 400 deputies (seats abroad excluded from the cap).
• No bonus if no one reaches 42%, or if the two chambers give different winners: seats are then shared purely proportionally (ANSA ↗).
• Seats are shared by integer quotients and largest remainders (Hare), not D'Hondt (DPR 361/1957 arts. 77 and 83 as amended).

Line = majority (201 of 400). The 8 deputies elected abroad are not projected.

The leading bloc is within 3 points of 42%, so both outcomes are shown: a small polling error or a different coalition line-up could decide whether the bonus applies. The bonus also requires the same winner at 42% in the Senate, which is not projected here.

List	Average	Seats with bonus	Seats without bonus
FdIFratelli d'Italia	27.5%	94	114
Partito Democratico	20.4%	106	88
Movimento 5 Stelle	12.9%	67	55
Forza Italia	7.1%	24	29
FNFuturo Nazionale	6.7%	22	27
AVSAlleanza Verdi e Sinistra	6.3%	33	27
Lega	5.8%	20	24
Azione	3.1%	10	13
IVItalia Viva	2.4%	12	10
+Europa	1.4%	0	0
Sud chiama Nord	1.3%	4	5
Noi Moderati	1.1%	0	0

Simplified national estimate, not the official count: coalitions with at least 10% and lists outside a coalition with at least 3% share 392 seats by largest remainder; a coalition's seats go to its lists with 3% or more plus its best list under 3%. With the bonus, the leader gets its share of 322 seats plus 70 (at most 220). The real allocation runs by constituency, has special rules for Valle d'Aosta and Trentino-Alto Adige, and may differ by several seats.

Party	Average	Range across pollsters	Pollsters	Coalition
FdIFratelli d'Italia	27.5%	26.3 – 28.9	11	CDX
Partito Democratico	20.4%	19.9 – 20.8	11	CSX
Movimento 5 Stelle	12.9%	12.0 – 14.9	11	CSX
Forza Italia	7.1%	6.3 – 7.9	11	CDX
FNFuturo Nazionale	6.7%	5.1 – 7.9	11	–
AVSAlleanza Verdi e Sinistra	6.3%	5.6 – 6.7	11	CSX
Lega	5.8%	5.0 – 7.4	11	CDX
Azione	3.1%	2.8 – 3.6	11	–
IVItalia Viva	2.4%	1.9 – 2.9	11	CSX
+Europa	1.4%	0.8 – 1.8	10	CSX
Sud chiama Nord	1.3%	0.8 – 1.7	7	CDX
Noi Moderati	1.1%	0.7 – 1.7	10	CDX

Logos: Wikimedia Commons (public domain, except PD: Gambo7, CC BY-SA 4.0).

Pollsters used: SWG, Quorum, Termometro Politico, Only Numbers, Eumetra, EMG, BiDiMedia, Ipsos, Lab21, Excellera Advisory Group, Piepoli. 2022 Chamber result for reference: centre-right 43.8% (237 seats), centre-left 26.1% (85), M5S 15.4% (52), Azione–Italia Viva 7.8% (21), under the previous law.

This is the 2022 result under the previous law, not a projection: no poll is published by region.

• Average: each pollster's latest poll with fieldwork ending in the 21 days before the newest poll, simple mean per party and per coalition total.
• Coalitions: as tabulated with each poll (centre-left: PD, M5S, AVS, Italia Viva, +Europa and smaller allies; centre-right: Fratelli d'Italia, Forza Italia, Lega, Noi Moderati, Sud chiama Nord and smaller allies). Azione and Futuro Nazionale are counted outside both.
• Seats: simplified national estimate under law 180/2026 (largest remainder, thresholds and 42% bonus as described above), shown with and without the bonus. It is seat arithmetic on today's polls, not a prediction.
• Data: every published poll, compiled on Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). Each row links to the original release.
• Map: 2022 Chamber result by region (coalition with the most seats), shown for reference only. Boundaries: geoBoundaries (CC BY 4.0).
• Publication ban: no polls may be published in the 15 days before the vote (law 28/2000, art. 8). Once the date is set, this page stops updating for that period.
• Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. The averages are calculated by formula from every published poll; no figures are adjusted by hand.