Spain election 2026 polls

• The Adamuz rail crash: The polls barely moved: no party or candidate changed by more than 0.5 points on average.
• Former minister Ábalos sentenced to 24 years: The polls barely moved: no party or candidate changed by more than 0.2 points on average.
• Sánchez calls a snap election for 29 November: Podemos edged down with all 12 pollsters (-1.2); Adelante Andalucía edged up with all 4 pollsters (+0.5).
• The Urda rail crash and the transport minister's resignation: The polls barely moved: no party or candidate changed by more than 0.9 points on average.

All flashpoints →

• Voters elect the Congress of Deputies, the lower house that chooses the prime minister, and most of the Senate. The Congress has 350 seats; a government needs 176 for an absolute majority.
• Seats are allocated province by province: each of Spain's 50 provinces is a constituency with its own number of seats (from 2 in Soria to 38 in Madrid in 2026), plus one seat each for Ceuta and Melilla. Inside each province, seats go to the closed party lists by the D'Hondt method, with a 3% threshold in the province.
• Because most provinces elect few deputies, the system rewards the two biggest parties and parties whose vote is concentrated in one region. That is why Catalan, Basque, Galician or Canarian parties win seats on 1–2% of the national vote, while a nationwide party on a similar score can win none.
• After the election, the King nominates a candidate who must win an investiture vote in the Congress: 176 votes in the first ballot, or simply more yes than no votes in a second ballot 48 hours later. Abstentions therefore matter, and minority governments are common.

In Sondagio's estimate as of 10 November 2026, PP comes first in 43 provinces, PSOE comes first in 7 provinces and EH Bildu comes first in 1 province. 1 is too close to call (under 2 points). No provincial polls are published: the figures apply the national average to the 2023 results.

Party	Sondagio	Pollsters' average	2023
Partido Popular	130	132	137
PSOE	111	107	121
Vox	69	66	33
Frente Amplio	8	9	–
ERC	8	9	7
Podemos	1	1	–
Adelante Andalucía	2	3	–
Junts	5	6	7
EH Bildu	7	7	6
Front Valencià	3	3	–
BNG	2	2	1
PNV	3	4	5
Coalición Canaria	1	1	1

Sondagio projection · line = majority (176)

Sondagio's projection applies its estimate for each province and allocates that province's seats by D'Hondt with the legal 3% threshold. Seats in 2026: Madrid 38 (+1), Cádiz 8 (−1), all others as in 2023. The 2023 column shows seats won in July 2023; Sumar's 31 seats then are not shown against its successors.

No party reaches the 176-seat majority in the projection. Spain's two blocs are a right made of PP and Vox (together 199 projected seats) and a left led by PSOE (111), which in 2023 won the investiture only with the votes of Sumar and of the Catalan, Basque, Galician and Canarian parties. Below are the smallest combinations of parties that reach a majority and whose members are close on two axes, left-right and regional self-government, according to the Chapel Hill Expert Survey (CHES 2024).

Rule: a combination is shown if it has at least 176 seats, if no party is surplus (the others would still have a majority without it) and if its members are no more than 5.5 points apart on left-right and 7.0 on regional self-government. This is arithmetic on published positions, not a forecast of deals. In the second investiture ballot a simple majority is enough, so abstentions can change the outcome. * Frente Amplio uses Sumar's position; Front Valencià and Adelante Andalucía use an approximate position (they are not in CHES 2024).

Party	Average	Pollster range	Seats*	2023
Partido Popular	31.5%	28.3 – 33.1 (15)	132	33.1
PSOE	26.8%	24.7 – 31.4 (15)	107	31.7
Vox	19.0%	17.5 – 19.9 (15)	66	12.4
Frente Amplio	6.3%	3.9 – 8.1 (15)	9	–
ERC	2.4%	1.9 – 2.9 (11)	9	–
Podemos	1.8%	1.2 – 3.1 (15)	1	–
Se Acabó La Fiesta	1.7%	0.4 – 2.6 (12)	0	–
Adelante Andalucía	1.5%	1.0 – 2.3 (11)	3	–
Junts	1.4%	1.2 – 1.8 (11)	6	–
EH Bildu	1.4%	1.3 – 1.6 (11)	7	–
Front Valencià	1.2%	0.9 – 1.5 (6)	3	–
BNG	0.9%	0.8 – 1.3 (11)	2	–
PNV	0.8%	0.7 – 0.9 (11)	4	–
Coalición Canaria	0.4%	0.3 – 0.5 (10)	1	–

Logos: Wikimedia Commons (public domain).

* Average of the seat projections published by the pollsters, scaled to add up to 350; not a Sondagio projection. In brackets, the number of pollsters publishing the figure. 2023: official result of the general election of 23 July 2023 (Spanish Interior Ministry).

Each province page is in Spanish: the estimate, projected seats and the 2023 result for that constituency.

• A Coruña 8
• Álava 4
• Albacete 4
• Alicante 12
• Almería 6
• Asturias 7
• Ávila 3
• Badajoz 5
• Barcelona 32
• Bizkaia 8
• Burgos 4
• Cáceres 4
• Cádiz 8
• Cantabria 5
• Castellón 5
• Ceuta 1
• Ciudad Real 5
• Córdoba 6
• Cuenca 3
• Gipuzkoa 6
• Girona 6
• Granada 7
• Guadalajara 3
• Huelva 5
• Huesca 3
• Illes Balears 8
• Jaén 5
• La Rioja 4
• Las Palmas 8
• León 4
• Lleida 4
• Lugo 4
• Madrid 38
• Málaga 11
• Melilla 1
• Murcia 10
• Navarra 5
• Ourense 4
• Palencia 3
• Pontevedra 7
• Salamanca 4
• Santa Cruz de Tenerife 7
• Segovia 3
• Sevilla 12
• Soria 2
• Tarragona 6
• Teruel 3
• Toledo 6
• Valencia 16
• Valladolid 5
• Zamora 3
• Zaragoza 7

• We take each pollster's latest poll with fieldwork ending in the 14 days before the most recent poll, and average each party's figure.
• Polls commissioned by a political party are left out of the average.
• “Pollsters' average”: the average of the seat projections the pollsters publish themselves, scaled to 350.
• Map and Sondagio projection: for each party we start from its 2023 result in each province (Frente Amplio and Podemos from Sumar's vote; Front Valencià from Sumar's vote in the Valencian Community; Podemos blends that with its own 2024 European vote; Adelante Andalucía spread evenly across Andalusia; Se Acabó La Fiesta by its 2024 European vote in each province, as it has never stood for Congress). Where a party has no list proclaimed in the official gazette (BOE) it gets no votes: Frente Amplio is not standing in Valencia, Alicante, Castellón, Teruel, Ceuta or Melilla. We shift each result by the change in the party's national average, on a logistic scale, and adjust so that the national total matches the poll average. We then allocate each province's seats by D'Hondt with the 3% threshold. Tested on 2023: starting from 2019 and given the true national vote, the method puts 342 of 350 seats with the right party.
• Uncertainty (simulations): Spanish polls often miss the whole right or the whole left at once, so each simulation moves the two blocs in opposite directions, sized on the final polls of the 5 general elections since 2015, then adds shifts shared within each autonomous community and smaller ones per province, measured between 2019 and 2023.
• Data source: every published poll, as compiled on Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). Each row links to the outlet that published it.
• Poll ban: Spanish electoral law (LOREG, art. 69.7) forbids publishing polls in Spain in the five days before polling day, from 24 November to 28 November. During that period the figures on this page stay frozen on polls with fieldwork up to 22 November.
• Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. The averages are calculated by formula from every published poll; no figures are adjusted by hand.