2028 Democratic primary polls
Primaries and caucuses from early 2028Nationwide · 15 states polled
PollsHarris 23%, Newsom 14%.
As of , Kamala Harris leads national polls of the 2028 Democratic primary with 23.3%, 9.8 points ahead of Gavin Newsom (13.5%), in the Sondagio average of the latest poll from 8 pollsters. The field is not set: pollsters test different names, so each figure averages the polls that included that person.
- 8pollsters in the average
- 9.8 ptsHarris–Newsom gap
- 135national polls since 2024
- 15states with a poll
Latest pollMcLaughlin & Associates · · 471 voters
Harris 28%Newsom 16%Buttigieg 9%AOC 9%Ossoff 7%Shapiro 6%
Flashpoints: events and the polls
Same pollster, before and after- Newsom discloses a Justice Department investigation: No party or candidate moved the same way with every pollster.
- Newsom says he won't run if Harris does: No party or candidate moved the same way with every pollster.
2028 Democratic primary: national poll average
% of Democratic primary voters| Candidate | Average | Range across pollsters | In polls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | 23.3% | 12.0 – 34.0 | 8 of 8 |
| Gavin Newsom | 13.5% | 9.0 – 20.0 | 8 of 8 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 10.2% | 6.0 – 17.6 | 8 of 8 |
| Pete Buttigieg | 10.2% | 7.0 – 15.8 | 8 of 8 |
| Jon Ossoff | 7.8% | 4.0 – 18.2 | 8 of 8 |
| Mark Kelly | 5.8% | 3.0 – 9.1 | 6 of 8 |
| Josh Shapiro | 4.8% | 1.0 – 7.0 | 8 of 8 |
| JB Pritzker | 3.2% | 2.0 – 5.0 | 7 of 8 |
| Andy Beshear | 2.6% | 1.0 – 3.9 | 7 of 8 |
| Cory Booker | 2.1% | 0.0 – 3.0 | 5 of 8 |
"In polls": how many of the 8 polls in the average named that person. Not averaged: Donald Trump (barred from a third term by the 22nd amendment); polls that named him are still listed below.
2028 Democratic primary polls over time
Weekly average · national2028 Democratic primary map: who leads each state
Latest poll in each state · tap a stateLoading the map…
United States · national average
Democratic primary
8 pollsters · full average
Harris23.3%
Newsom13.5%
AOC10.2%
Buttigieg10.2%
Ossoff7.8%
Kelly5.8%
Harris leads (6)Buttigieg leads (3)Newsom leads (3)AOC leads (1)Ossoff leads (1)TiedNo poll yetShade = lead in the latest poll (solid 10+ pts, half 5-10, outline < 5)One poll per state, often months old · not averaged
Each state shows its latest Democratic primary poll, not an average: most states have one or two polls, some from months ago. 15 of 50 states have been polled so far. Tap a state for the full poll.
2028 Democratic primary polls by state
15 states · latest poll firstToo few state polls to average yet. Each state shows its most recent poll; open it for the others.
New Hampshire primary · 10 polls · latest Oct 2026Buttigieg 28% · Ossoff 14%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Buttigieg | Ossoff | Kelly | AOC | Newsom | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 – Oct 20 | Saint Anselm College | 784 | 28 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 8 | source ↗ |
| Aug 17 – Aug 18 | Saint Anselm College | 733 | 25 | 12 | 12 | 17 | 7 | source ↗ |
| Jul 15 – Jul 20 | University of New Hampshire | 648 | 21 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 8 | source ↗ |
| Jun 24 – Jun 25 | Saint Anselm College | 810 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 11 | source ↗ |
| Mar 21 – Mar 23 | Emerson College | 523 | 19.7 | – | 10.1 | 11.8 | 11.6 | source ↗ |
| Mar 16 – Mar 18 | Saint Anselm College | 690 | 29 | – | – | 10 | 15 | source ↗ |
| Feb 12 – Feb 16 | University of New Hampshire | 635 | 20 | – | 10 | 15 | 15 | source ↗ |
| Nov 18 – Nov 19 | Saint Anselm College | 1,015 | 28 | – | – | – | 24 | source ↗ |
| Oct 16 – Oct 21 | University of New Hampshire | 602 | 19 | – | 3 | 14 | 15 | source ↗ |
| Aug 26 – Aug 27 | Saint Anselm College | 867 | 23 | – | – | 7 | 23 | source ↗ |
California primary · 8 polls · latest Oct 2026AOC 18% · Buttigieg 17%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | AOC | Buttigieg | Newsom | Kelly | Harris | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 – Oct 20 | McLaughlin & Associates | 419 | 18 | 17 | 14 | 10 | 7 | source ↗ |
| Mar 9 – Mar 15 | UC Berkeley IGS · LA Times | 2,317 | 14 | 11 | 26 | 7 | 9 | source ↗ |
| Feb 25 – Mar 3 | UC Berkeley Citrin Center · TrueDot / Politico | 702 | 12 | 11 | 28 | 5 | 14 | source ↗ |
| Dec 1 – Dec 2 | Emerson College · Nexstar Media | 567 | 13.4 | 15.7 | 35.9 | – | 8.8 | source ↗ |
| Jul 28 – Aug 12 | UC Berkeley Citrin Center · TrueDot/ Politico | 807 | 10 | 13 | 25 | 2 | 19 | source ↗ |
| Aug 4 – Aug 5 | Emerson College | 444 | 9 | 17.4 | 23.1 | – | 11 | source ↗ |
| May 21 – May 30 | Capitol Weekly | 1,122 | 9.9 | 7.3 | 17.2 | – | 15.3 | source ↗ |
| Feb 3 – Feb 7 | Capitol Weekly | 681 | – | 15 | 27 | – | 15 | source ↗ |
Texas primary · 3 polls · latest Sep 2026Harris 31% · Newsom 17%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Harris | Newsom | Buttigieg | AOC | Ossoff | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 – Sep 26 | Big Data Poll | 284 | 30.9 | 16.5 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.4 | source ↗ |
| Aug 24 – Aug 26 | Overton Insights | 371 | 28.4 | 11.5 | 14.2 | 10.6 | 11.6 | source ↗ |
| Aug 11 – Aug 12 | Emerson College | 370 | 16.8 | 19.5 | 21.6 | 5.6 | – | source ↗ |
Michigan primary · 2 polls · latest Jul 2026Harris 25% · Buttigieg 19%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Harris | Buttigieg | AOC | Newsom | Booker | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8 – Jul 11 | Glengariff Group · WDIV / Detroit News | 500 | 25.1 | 19.4 | 11.5 | 10.1 | 8.3 | source ↗ |
| Apr 17 – Apr 19 | Glengariff Group | 500 | 14.6 | 17 | 6.3 | 15.2 | – | source ↗ |
North Carolina primary · 2 polls · latest Sep 2026Harris 31% · Buttigieg 15%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Harris | Buttigieg | Newsom | AOC | Shapiro | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27 – Sep 29 | Big Data Poll | 281 | 31 | 15 | 14 | 8 | 8 | source ↗ |
| Jul 28 – Jul 30 | Emerson College | 421 | 12 | 16.8 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 3.2 | source ↗ |
Ohio primary · 2 polls · latest Sep 2026Harris 22% · Newsom 16%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Harris | Newsom | Buttigieg | AOC | Shapiro | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 – Sep 27 | Big Data Poll | 302 | 21.9 | 16.2 | 12.7 | 10.1 | 7.9 | source ↗ |
| Aug 18 – Aug 19 | Emerson College | 383 | 6.8 | 20 | 15.3 | 8.1 | 2.8 | source ↗ |
Alaska primary · 1 poll · latest Oct 2025Newsom 23% · Buttigieg 20%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Newsom | Buttigieg | Harris | AOC | Walz | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 – Oct 15 | Alaska Survey Research | 315 | 23 | 20 | 19 | 17 | 7 | source ↗ |
Florida primary · 1 poll · latest Jun 2025Buttigieg 23% · AOC 14%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Buttigieg | AOC | Newsom | Shapiro | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7 – Jun 10 | Victory Insights | 600 | 23 | 14 | 12 | 3 | source ↗ |
Georgia primary · 1 poll · latest Sep 2026Ossoff 30% · Harris 24%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Ossoff | Harris | Newsom | Buttigieg | AOC | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 – Sep 23 | Big Data Poll | 313 | 29.6 | 24 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 6 | source ↗ |
Maine primary · 1 poll · latest Oct 2025Newsom 16% · AOC 15%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Newsom | AOC | Buttigieg | Harris | Pritzker | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 – Oct 21 | University of New Hampshire | 470 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 8 | source ↗ |
Massachusetts primary · 1 poll · latest Aug 2026Buttigieg 21% · AOC 14%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Buttigieg | AOC | Newsom | Harris | Kelly | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13 – Aug 16 | Suffolk University · Boston Globe | 500 | 21 | 14.2 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 7.6 | source ↗ |
Minnesota primary · 1 poll · latest Sep 2026Harris 24% · AOC 15%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Harris | AOC | Buttigieg | Newsom | Kelly | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29 – Sep 30 | Big Data Poll | 297 | 24.3 | 15.3 | 12.3 | 10.5 | 7.2 | source ↗ |
Nevada primary · 1 poll · latest Nov 2025Newsom 37% · Buttigieg 19%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Newsom | Buttigieg | AOC | Harris | Beshear | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16 – Nov 18 | Emerson College | 348 | 36.9 | 18.9 | 8.9 | 6 | 3.6 | source ↗ |
Tennessee primary · 1 poll · latest Aug 2026Harris 30% · Newsom 18%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Harris | Newsom | Buttigieg | AOC | Kelly | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15 – Aug 26 | Targoz Market Research | 385 | 30 | 18 | 11 | 10 | 8 | source ↗ |
Vermont primary · 1 poll · latest Oct 2025Newsom 17% · AOC 17%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Newsom | AOC | Buttigieg | Sanders | Harris | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 – Oct 21 | University of New Hampshire | 476 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 6 | source ↗ |
Latest national 2028 Democratic primary polls
40 most recent · newest first| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Harris | Newsom | AOC | Buttigieg | Ossoff | Kelly | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 – Nov 5 | McLaughlin & Associates | 471 LV | 28 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 5 | source ↗ |
| Oct 28 – Nov 1 | AtlasIntel | 3,566 LV | 12.6 | 9 | 17.6 | 15.8 | 18.2 | 9.1 | source ↗ |
| Oct 24 – Oct 26 | Harvard Harris | RV | 34 | 20 | 11 | 10 | 6 | – | source ↗ |
| Oct 23 – Oct 25 | Leger | 375 A | 22 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 6 | – | source ↗ |
| Oct 12 – Oct 19 | New York Times · Siena | 1,170 RV | 12 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 3 | source ↗ |
| Oct 15 – Oct 19 | Echelon Insights | 522 LV | 19 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 5 | 7 | source ↗ |
| Oct 5 – Oct 7 | Noble Predictive Insights · The Center Square | 1,171 RV | 29 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 6 | source ↗ |
| Sep 26 – Sep 28 | Harvard Harris | RV | 38 | 17 | 12 | 11 | 6 | – | source ↗ |
| Sep 26 – Sep 28 | Focaldata · Financial Times | 778 LV | 30 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 5 | source ↗ |
| Sep 16 – Sep 22 | McLaughlin & Associates | 463 LV | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | – | 8 | source ↗ |
| Sep 17 – Sep 21 | Echelon Insights | 491 LV | 24 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 7 | source ↗ |
| Sep 13 – Sep 15 | Big Data Poll | 1,329 LV | 27 | 16 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 5 | source ↗ |
| Sep 7 – Sep 13 | Veteran Action · The Honest Poll | 626 LV | 32 | 21 | 9 | 13 | 6 | – | source ↗ |
| Sep 3 – Sep 10 | Liberal Currents · Center for Strategic Politics | 683 V | 25 | 15 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 9 | source ↗ |
| Aug 28 – Sep 2 | Focaldata | 614 LV | 29 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 6 | source ↗ |
| Aug 25 – Sep 1 | Bowling Green State University · YouGov | 566 LV | 17 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 7 | 6 | source ↗ |
| Aug 28 – Aug 30 | Morning Consult | RV | 24 | 12 | – | 9 | 7 | – | source ↗ |
| Aug 28 – Aug 30 | Harvard Harris | 2,100 RV | 42 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 7 | – | source ↗ |
| Aug 26 – Aug 28 | Quantus Insights | 551 LV | 8.1 | 7.1 | 15.3 | 25.7 | 21.3 | – | source ↗ |
| Aug 18 – Aug 24 | McLaughlin & Associates | 474 LV | 29 | 16 | 9 | 10 | – | 7 | source ↗ |
| Aug 13 – Aug 17 | Echelon Insights | 483 LV | 18 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 5 | 7 | source ↗ |
| Aug 12 – Aug 16 | Noble Predictive Insights | 930 RV | 28 | 14 | 7 | 12 | – | 3 | source ↗ |
| Aug 7 – Aug 11 | Focaldata | 616 LV | 26 | 15 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 6 | source ↗ |
| Aug 2 – Aug 4 | Rasmussen Reports | 1,222 LV | 37 | 14 | 9 | 10 | – | 9 | source ↗ |
| Jul 24 – Jul 27 | Big Data Poll | 1,338 LV | 29.7 | 14.3 | 8.6 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 5 | source ↗ |
| Jul 15 – Jul 21 | McLaughlin & Associates | 472 LV | 28 | 18 | 10 | 8 | – | 3 | source ↗ |
| Jul 20 | J.L. Partners | 517 RV | 31 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 4 | source ↗ |
| Jul 19 – Jul 20 | Emerson College | 574 LV | 8 | 17 | 13 | 19 | 13 | – | source ↗ |
| Jul 9 – Jul 13 | Echelon Insights | 496 LV | 21 | 14 | 9 | 13 | – | 4 | source ↗ |
| Jul 11 – Jul 12 | Harvard Harris | 1,776 RV | 37 | 24 | 9 | 10 | – | – | source ↗ |
| Jul 8 – Jul 10 | YouGov | 485 A | 17 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 3 | source ↗ |
| Jul 3 – Jul 7 | Quantus Insights | 1,140 LV | 35.3 | 17.7 | 11.1 | 12.9 | – | – | source ↗ |
| Jul 1 – Jul 6 | Manhattan Institute | 1,121 LV | 19 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 3 | 6 | source ↗ |
| Jul 1 – Jul 4 | Zogby Analytics | 391 LV | 38 | 19 | 12 | 9 | – | 6 | source ↗ |
| Jun 26 – Jun 30 | Focaldata | 755 LV | 33 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 5 | source ↗ |
| Jun 24 – Jun 26 | Daily Mail · J.L. Partners | 1,040 RV | 29 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 5 | source ↗ |
| Jun 17 – Jun 23 | McLaughlin & Associates | 464 LV | 26 | 16 | 9 | 8 | – | 3 | source ↗ |
| Jun 11 – Jun 14 | Echelon Insights | 515 LV | 20 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 2 | 4 | source ↗ |
| Jun 1 – Jun 4 | Noble Predictive Insights | 1,013 RV | 27 | 14 | 8 | 11 | – | – | source ↗ |
| May 29 – Jun 1 | Focaldata | 685 RV | 37 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 5 | source ↗ |
LV: likely voters · RV: registered voters · A: adults. – : name not tested in that poll.
How we calculate
- Average: each pollster's latest national poll with fieldwork ending in the 45 days before the newest poll, simple mean per candidate over the polls that named them.
- No one has formally entered the race for most of these names; figures measure support in hypothetical fields and move as candidates enter or rule themselves out.
- Donald Trump: Barred from a third term by the 22nd Amendment. He is left out of the average.
- States: polls are listed as published, not averaged. When the same poll appears under two states with identical figures, the copy is dropped.
- Data: every published poll, compiled on Wikipedia (national, by state; CC BY-SA 4.0). Each row links to the original release.
Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. The averages are calculated by formula from every published poll; no figures are adjusted by hand.
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