Former minister Ábalos sentenced to 24 years
The polls barely moved: no party or candidate changed by more than 0.2 points on average.
On 22 June 2026 the Supreme Court sentenced former PSOE transport minister José Luis Ábalos to 24 years in prison in the face-mask contracts case, along with his former adviser Koldo García. The PP demanded Sánchez's resignation and an early election. How the polls moved before and after. Comparing each pollster with itself: its last poll before 21 June 2026 and its first poll starting on or after 23 June 2026, for the 7 pollsters that polled in both periods.
The polls moved after these events. That does not mean the events caused the change: other news happened in the same weeks, and each poll has a margin of error of about 2 to 3 points.
Change by party or candidate
7 pollsters| Party | Average change | Range | Pollsters up / down | Verdict | Average now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERC | +0.2 | +0.1 … +0.3 | 4 / 0 | Little change | 2.4% |
| Adelante Andalucía | +0.1 | -0.1 … +0.3 | 1 / 1 | Little change | 1.5% |
| EH Bildu | +0.1 | 0.0 … +0.3 | 1 / 0 | Little change | 1.4% |
| Podemos | +0.1 | -0.5 … +0.8 | 3 / 3 | Little change | 1.8% |
| Partido Popular | -0.1 | -0.5 … +0.2 | 3 / 4 | Little change | 31.5% |
| PSOE | -0.1 | -0.7 … +0.5 | 2 / 5 | Little change | 26.8% |
| Vox | -0.1 | -0.5 … +0.5 | 3 / 4 | Little change | 19.0% |
| BNG | 0.0 | 0.0 … 0.0 | 0 / 0 | Little change | 0.9% |
Each pollster, before and after
Before ≤ 21 Jun · After ≥ 23 Jun| Pollster | Before | After | ERC | AA | EH Bildu | Podemos | PP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EM-Analytics | 19 Jun | 24 Jul | +0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.5 |
| Sigma Dos | 11 Jun | 20 Jul | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.3 | -0.4 | +0.2 |
| 40dB | 1 Jun | 29 Jun | – | – | – | +0.8 | -0.4 |
| NC Report | 27 May | 1 Jul | +0.1 | – | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.2 |
| DYM | 22 May | 20 Jul | – | – | – | +0.6 | +0.1 |
| SocioMétrica | 30 May | 4 Jul | +0.2 | -0.1 | 0.0 | +0.6 | -0.3 |
| Target Point | 18 Jun | 17 Jul | – | – | – | -0.5 | +0.1 |
End of fieldwork; each date links to the poll's source. Changes in points.
What happened
- 22 Jun · In a unanimous ruling by seven judges, the Supreme Court sentences Ábalos to 24 years and Koldo García to 19 for criminal organisation, bribery, embezzlement and influence peddling; businessman Víctor de Aldama gets a suspended 4½ years for cooperating with the court.
- 22 Jun · Feijóo calls the ruling "a conviction of the government" and demands Sánchez's resignation and an election, but rules out a no-confidence motion for now and presses the government's partners.
- 24 Jun · Sánchez distances himself from Ábalos and Santos Cerdán, says the PSOE acted from the first minute, and denounces what he calls persecution of his family.
- 14 Oct · The Supreme Court rejects the nullity motions and confirms the sentences, leaving an appeal to the Constitutional Court open.
Sources
- Euronews, El Supremo condena a Ábalos a 24 años de cárcel y a Koldo a 19 por la trama de las mascarillas (22 Jun 2026)
- elDiario.es, José Luis Ábalos, condenado a cárcel por el Tribunal Supremo (22 Jun 2026)
- Ara, Feijóo exige la dimisión de Sánchez por la sentencia contra Ábalos (22 Jun 2026)
- Ara, Sánchez responde a la sentencia a Ábalos con ataques a Feijóo y desafiando a los socios (Jun 2026)
- Artículo 14, El Supremo confirma las condenas de Ábalos y Koldo y abre la puerta a que puedan recurrir al Constitucional (14 Oct 2026)
How we measure
- Same pollster, before and after: comparing different pollsters would mistake their usual differences for movement.
- A candidate 'rose' or 'fell' only when at least 3 pollsters all moved the same way and the average change is 1.5 points or more; under 1 point is 'little change'; anything else is 'mixed'.
- Events are chosen by Sondagio and described from the cited sources. Polls: every published poll, as in the race's average.
- Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. No figures are adjusted by hand.