The Adamuz rail crash
The polls barely moved: no party or candidate changed by more than 0.5 points on average.
On 18 January 2026 an Iryo high-speed train derailed near Adamuz (Córdoba) and a Renfe Alvia struck it seconds later, killing 46 people. The government declared official mourning, and the PP and others called for Transport Minister Óscar Puente to resign. How the polls moved before and after. Comparing each pollster with itself: its last poll before 17 January 2026 and its first poll starting on or after 19 January 2026, for the 7 pollsters that polled in both periods.
The polls moved after these events. That does not mean the events caused the change: other news happened in the same weeks, and each poll has a margin of error of about 2 to 3 points.
Change by party or candidate
7 pollsters| Party | Average change | Range | Pollsters up / down | Verdict | Average now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vox | +0.5 | 0.0 … +1.1 | 6 / 0 | Little change | 19.0% |
| Podemos | +0.3 | -0.1 … +0.6 | 5 / 1 | Little change | 1.8% |
| Partido Popular | -0.2 | -0.5 … +0.5 | 1 / 6 | Little change | 31.5% |
| PSOE | -0.2 | -0.7 … +0.6 | 1 / 6 | Little change | 26.8% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | +0.2 | -0.5 … +0.6 | 4 / 1 | Little change | 1.7% |
| EH Bildu | +0.1 | 0.0 … +0.2 | 2 / 0 | Little change | 1.4% |
| BNG | +0.1 | 0.0 … +0.2 | 1 / 0 | Little change | 0.9% |
| Junts | -0.1 | -0.3 … 0.0 | 0 / 2 | Little change | 1.4% |
Each pollster, before and after
Before ≤ 17 Jan · After ≥ 19 Jan| Pollster | Before | After | Vox | Podemos | PP | PSOE | SALF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EM-Analytics | 16 Jan | 30 Jan | +0.6 | 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.4 | +0.2 |
| Sigma Dos | 29 Dec | 30 Jan | +0.6 | +0.2 | -0.3 | -0.4 | – |
| 40dB | 5 Jan | 2 Feb | +0.1 | +0.2 | -0.3 | +0.6 | -0.5 |
| NC Report | 9 Jan | 13 Feb | +0.5 | -0.1 | -0.4 | -0.4 | – |
| SocioMétrica | 10 Jan | 13 Feb | +0.5 | +0.4 | -0.4 | -0.7 | +0.4 |
| Target Point | 15 Jan | 19 Feb | +1.1 | +0.5 | +0.5 | -0.3 | +0.6 |
| CIS (Logoslab) | 10 Jan | 6 Feb | 0.0 | +0.6 | -0.2 | -0.1 | +0.4 |
End of fieldwork; each date links to the poll's source. Changes in points.
What happened
- 18 Jan · At 19:43 an Iryo train from Málaga to Madrid derails near Adamuz; a Renfe Alvia hits it about 20 seconds later. 46 people die, including the Alvia's driver, and nearly 300 are injured.
- 20 Jan · Three days of official mourning begin; Sánchez had cancelled his trip to Davos to visit the site. High-speed services between Madrid and Andalusia remain suspended.
- 26 Jan · Feijóo calls for Puente's resignation; Madrid's regional president Isabel Díaz Ayuso demands that both Puente and Sánchez step down.
- 29 Jan · Puente appears before the Senate at the PP's request, met with shouts of "dimisión" from PP senators; he says responsibility lies with whoever contributed "by action or omission".
- 11 Feb · Sánchez reports to the Congress plenary on the Adamuz crash and a Rodalies accident in Gelida (Barcelona).
Sources
- Wikipedia, 2026 Adamuz train derailment
- elDiario.es, Feijóo pide la dimisión de Puente por Adamuz (26 Jan 2026)
- Última Hora, Recibe a Óscar Puente en el Senado con gritos de dimisión (29 Jan 2026)
- Diari de Tarragona, Sánchez comparecerá en el Congreso el 11 de febrero para informar del accidente de Adamuz (Jan 2026)
- Última Hora, Ayuso exige la dimisión de Puente y Sánchez por el accidente de Adamuz (26 Jan 2026)
How we measure
- Same pollster, before and after: comparing different pollsters would mistake their usual differences for movement.
- A candidate 'rose' or 'fell' only when at least 3 pollsters all moved the same way and the average change is 1.5 points or more; under 1 point is 'little change'; anything else is 'mixed'.
- Events are chosen by Sondagio and described from the cited sources. Polls: every published poll, as in the race's average.
- Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. No figures are adjusted by hand.