Barnaby Joyce leaves the Nationals for One Nation
One Nation rose with all 7 (+6.1); Liberal/National Coalition fell with 6 of 7 pollsters (-2.8); Labor fell with 6 of 7 pollsters (-2.4).
Former Nationals leader and deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce quit the National Party on 27 November 2025 and joined One Nation on 8 December, giving it a seat in the House of Representatives. How the federal polls moved before and after. Comparing each pollster with itself: its last poll before 26 November 2025 and its first poll starting on or after 9 December 2025, for the 7 pollsters that polled in both periods.
The polls moved after these events. That does not mean the events caused the change: other news happened in the same weeks, and each poll has a margin of error of about 2 to 3 points.
Change by party or candidate
7 pollsters| Party | Average change | Range | Pollsters up / down | Verdict | Average now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| One Nation | +6.1 | +1.0 … +9.0 | 7 / 0 | Rose with every pollster | 26.8% |
| Liberal/National Coalition | -2.8 | -11.0 … +3.5 | 1 / 6 | Fell with most pollsters | 23.0% |
| Labor | -2.4 | -5.0 … 0.0 | 0 / 6 | Fell with most pollsters | 26.3% |
| Others | -1.1 | -2.5 … +1.0 | 1 / 5 | Mixed | 10.8% |
| Greens | -0.4 | -3.0 … +1.0 | 3 / 3 | Little change | 13.1% |
Each pollster, before and after
Before ≤ 26 Nov · After ≥ 9 Dec| Pollster | Before | After | One Nation | LNP | Labor | Others | Greens |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Morgan | 16 Nov | 11 Jan | +1.0 | +3.5 | -3.0 | -2.5 | +1.0 |
| RedBridge/Accent | 26 Nov | 29 Jan | +8.0 | -11.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | +1.0 |
| Newspoll | 20 Nov | 16 Jan | +7.0 | -3.0 | -4.0 | +1.0 | -1.0 |
| Resolve | 8 Nov | 20 Dec | +4.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 |
| Essential | 24 Nov | 23 Jan | +7.0 | -2.0 | -5.0 | 0.0 | -2.0 |
| YouGov | 30 Oct | 23 Dec | +7.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -2.0 | +1.0 |
| Freshwater | 20 Oct | 18 Jan | +9.0 | -3.0 | 0.0 | -2.0 | -3.0 |
End of fieldwork; each date links to the poll's source. Changes in points.
What happened
- 27 Nov · Barnaby Joyce, member for New England, resigns from the National Party to sit as an independent.
- 8 Dec · Joyce joins One Nation, which now holds a House seat for the first time since the 2025 election.
Sources
How we measure
- Same pollster, before and after: comparing different pollsters would mistake their usual differences for movement.
- A candidate 'rose' or 'fell' only when at least 3 pollsters all moved the same way and the average change is 1.5 points or more; under 1 point is 'little change'; anything else is 'mixed'.
- Events are chosen by Sondagio and described from the cited sources. Polls: every published poll, as in the race's average.
- Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. No figures are adjusted by hand.