The Coalition splits, reunites, and Angus Taylor replaces Sussan Ley
One Nation rose with 8 of 9 pollsters (+4.9); Others fell with 8 of 9 pollsters (-1.3).
The Liberal–National Coalition split on 22 January 2026 and reunited on 8 February; five days later Angus Taylor defeated Sussan Ley in a Liberal leadership spill and became Opposition leader. How the federal polls moved before and after. Comparing each pollster with itself: its last poll before 21 January 2026 and its first poll starting on or after 14 February 2026, for the 9 pollsters that polled in both periods.
The polls moved after these events. That does not mean the events caused the change: other news happened in the same weeks, and each poll has a margin of error of about 2 to 3 points.
Change by party or candidate
9 pollsters| Party | Average change | Range | Pollsters up / down | Verdict | Average now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| One Nation | +4.9 | -0.5 … +11.0 | 8 / 1 | Rose with most pollsters | 26.8% |
| Liberal/National Coalition | -3.4 | -11.0 … 0.0 | 0 / 6 | Mixed | 23.0% |
| Others | -1.3 | -3.0 … 0.0 | 0 / 8 | Fell with most pollsters | 10.8% |
| Labor | -0.8 | -4.0 … +2.5 | 2 / 6 | Little change | 26.3% |
| Greens | -0.2 | -2.0 … +2.0 | 3 / 5 | Little change | 13.1% |
Each pollster, before and after
Before ≤ 21 Jan · After ≥ 14 Feb| Pollster | Before | After | One Nation | LNP | Others | Labor | Greens |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Morgan | 18 Jan | 22 Feb | -0.5 | 0.0 | -1.0 | +2.5 | -1.0 |
| RedBridge/Accent | 12 Dec | 27 Feb | +11.0 | -11.0 | 0.0 | -3.0 | -1.0 |
| DemosAU | 21 Jan | 20 Feb | +4.0 | 0.0 | -2.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 |
| Newspoll | 16 Jan | 26 Feb | +5.0 | -1.0 | -3.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 |
| Resolve | 16 Jan | 14 Mar | +6.0 | -6.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | +2.0 |
| Essential | 8 Dec | 23 Feb | +5.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 | -4.0 | +1.0 |
| YouGov | 23 Dec | 24 Feb | +4.0 | -7.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 |
| Freshwater | 18 Jan | 29 Mar | +6.0 | -5.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | +1.0 |
| Fox & Hedgehog | 6 Jan | 19 Feb | +4.0 | -1.0 | -2.0 | +1.0 | -2.0 |
End of fieldwork; each date links to the poll's source. Changes in points.
What happened
- 22 Jan · The Liberal–National Coalition is dissolved.
- 8 Feb · The Coalition is reunited.
- 11 Feb · Angus Taylor resigns from the shadow cabinet, saying Sussan Ley is not in a position to lead the party as it needs to be led.
- 13 Feb · Taylor defeats Ley in a leadership spill and becomes Opposition leader; Jane Hume is elected deputy. Ley later resigns from Parliament, triggering a by-election in Farrer.
Sources
How we measure
- Same pollster, before and after: comparing different pollsters would mistake their usual differences for movement.
- A candidate 'rose' or 'fell' only when at least 3 pollsters all moved the same way and the average change is 1.5 points or more; under 1 point is 'little change'; anything else is 'mixed'.
- Events are chosen by Sondagio and described from the cited sources. Polls: every published poll, as in the race's average.
- Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. No figures are adjusted by hand.