Estonia's coalition loses its majority and the defence minister resigns
Parempoolsed rose with all 3 (+2.4); Centre Party (Keskerakond) fell with all 3 pollsters (-1.7 points on average).
In August two MPs left the Reform–Eesti 200 coalition, leaving Kristen Michal at the head of a minority government; on 2 September Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur resigned over a €70 million artillery-shell contract, the same day the Riigikogu elected Ülle Madise president. How the Riigikogu polls moved before and after. Comparing each pollster with itself: its last poll before 8 August 2026 and its first poll starting on or after 3 September 2026, for the 3 pollsters that polled in both periods.
The polls moved after these events. That does not mean the events caused the change: other news happened in the same weeks, and each poll has a margin of error of about 2 to 3 points.
Change by party or candidate
3 pollsters| Party | Average change | Range | Pollsters up / down | Verdict | Average now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parempoolsed | +2.4 | +2.0 … +2.8 | 3 / 0 | Rose with every pollster | 6.6% |
| Centre Party (Keskerakond) | -1.7 | -3.4 … -0.7 | 0 / 3 | Fell with every pollster | 21.6% |
| Isamaa | -1.4 | -3.7 … 0.0 | 0 / 2 | Mixed | 20.3% |
| Others (Greens, Koos, Left Alliance, ERK, others) | -0.9 | -2.7 … +0.9 | 1 / 2 | Little change | 4.2% |
| Conservative People's Party (EKRE) | +0.7 | -1.2 … +3.0 | 2 / 1 | Little change | 15.0% |
| Estonia 200 (Eesti 200) | -0.6 | -2.0 … +0.2 | 1 / 1 | Little change | 1.8% |
| Social Democratic Party (SDE) | +0.6 | -1.4 … +3.1 | 1 / 1 | Little change | 16.9% |
| Reform Party (Reformierakond) | +0.3 | 0.0 … +0.6 | 2 / 0 | Little change | 11.8% |
Each pollster, before and after
Before ≤ 8 Aug · After ≥ 3 Sept| Pollster | Before | After | Parempoolsed | Keskerakond | Isamaa | Greens, Koos, Left Alliance, ERK, others | EKRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norstat | 2 Aug | 13 Sept | +2.5 | -0.7 | -3.7 | +0.9 | +0.3 |
| Emor | 16 Jul | 23 Sept | +2.8 | -3.4 | -0.6 | -2.7 | -1.2 |
| Turu-uuringute AS | 25 Jun | 7 Sept | +2.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 | +3.0 |
End of fieldwork; each date links to the poll's source. Changes in points.
What happened
- 9 Aug · Kalev Stoicescu, chair of the Riigikogu National Defence Committee, announces he is leaving Eesti 200.
- 10 Aug · Meelis Kiili leaves the Reform Party; the coalition falls from 52 to 50 of 101 seats. Michal: "Estonia currently has a minority coalition."
- 2 Sept · Reports show the Centre for Defence Investments paid about €70 million in advance for shells for Ukraine to a supplier that had never produced them; Pevkur resigns, taking political responsibility. The same day the Riigikogu elects Ülle Madise president in the first round, with 71 votes.
- 16 Sept · Former Defence Forces commander Martin Herem, an independent, takes over as defence minister.
Sources
- dpa International, Estonian coalition loses majority after two lawmakers walk out (10 Aug 2026)
- ERR News, Expert: Reform rifts grow, but Michal unlikely to be ousted as PM before election (11 Aug 2026)
- ERR News, Estonia's defense minister resigns in national defense procurement scandal (2 Sep 2026)
- Euronews, Estonian defence minister resigns in €70m EU-funded procurement scandal for Ukraine (3 Sep 2026)
- Wikipedia, 2026 Estonian presidential election
- Wikipedia, Kristen Michal's cabinet
How we measure
- Same pollster, before and after: comparing different pollsters would mistake their usual differences for movement.
- A candidate 'rose' or 'fell' only when at least 3 pollsters all moved the same way and the average change is 1.5 points or more; under 1 point is 'little change'; anything else is 'mixed'.
- Events are chosen by Sondagio and described from the cited sources. Polls: every published poll, as in the race's average.
- Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. No figures are adjusted by hand.