Estonia's 2025 municipal elections
Conservative People's Party (EKRE) fell with all 3 pollsters (-2.8 points on average); Isamaa rose with all 3 (+2.3).
In the October 2025 local elections Centre won the most votes nationally and in Tallinn, Isamaa nearly doubled its share, and Prime Minister Kristen Michal's Reform Party fell to 10%. How the Riigikogu polls moved before and after. Comparing each pollster with itself: its last poll before 18 October 2025 and its first poll starting on or after 20 October 2025, for the 3 pollsters that polled in both periods.
The polls moved after these events. That does not mean the events caused the change: other news happened in the same weeks, and each poll has a margin of error of about 2 to 3 points.
Change by party or candidate
3 pollsters| Party | Average change | Range | Pollsters up / down | Verdict | Average now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative People's Party (EKRE) | -2.8 | -5.4 … -1.0 | 0 / 3 | Fell with every pollster | 15.0% |
| Isamaa | +2.3 | +1.0 … +3.0 | 3 / 0 | Rose with every pollster | 20.3% |
| Centre Party (Keskerakond) | +0.8 | -0.8 … +2.3 | 2 / 1 | Little change | 21.6% |
| Reform Party (Reformierakond) | -0.5 | -1.5 … 0.0 | 0 / 1 | Little change | 11.8% |
| Social Democratic Party (SDE) | +0.4 | -0.7 … +1.8 | 1 / 1 | Little change | 16.9% |
| Others (Greens, Koos, Left Alliance, ERK, others) | +0.3 | 0.0 … +0.6 | 2 / 0 | Little change | 4.2% |
| Estonia 200 (Eesti 200) | -0.2 | -1.0 … +0.3 | 1 / 1 | Little change | 1.8% |
| Parempoolsed | -0.2 | -0.6 … +0.1 | 1 / 1 | Little change | 6.6% |
Each pollster, before and after
Before ≤ 18 Oct · After ≥ 20 Oct| Pollster | Before | After | EKRE | Isamaa | Keskerakond | Reformierakond | SDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norstat | 17 Oct | 26 Oct | -5.4 | +2.8 | +2.3 | 0.0 | -0.7 |
| Emor | 13 Oct | 12 Nov | -2.0 | +3.0 | -0.8 | -1.5 | +1.8 |
| Turu-uuringute AS | 9 Oct | 10 Nov | -1.0 | +1.0 | +1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
End of fieldwork; each date links to the poll's source. Changes in points.
What happened
- 19 Oct · Election day; preliminary turnout 59.2%.
- 19 Oct · National result: Centre 21.1% (24.4% in 2021), Isamaa 18.6% (10.2%), Reform 10.0% (17.3%), SDE 9.9% (4.9%), EKRE 8.2% (13.2%), Parempoolsed 4.7%, Eesti 200 1.7%.
- 19 Oct · Centre wins 37 of 79 seats in Tallinn; EKRE wins none there. In Tartu, Isamaa takes 16 seats to Reform's 15.
- 20 Oct · Michal: "This result is not a good one."
Sources
How we measure
- Same pollster, before and after: comparing different pollsters would mistake their usual differences for movement.
- A candidate 'rose' or 'fell' only when at least 3 pollsters all moved the same way and the average change is 1.5 points or more; under 1 point is 'little change'; anything else is 'mixed'.
- Events are chosen by Sondagio and described from the cited sources. Polls: every published poll, as in the race's average.
- Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. No figures are adjusted by hand.