Kristen Michal removes the Social Democrats from government
Social Democratic Party (SDE) fell with all 3 pollsters (-1.9 points on average); Centre Party (Keskerakond) edged up with all 3 pollsters (+1.2); Others (Greens, Koos, Left Alliance, ERK, others) edged up with all 3 pollsters (+1.0).
On 10 March 2025 Prime Minister Kristen Michal expelled the Social Democrats from his three-party coalition after disputes over tax policy, leaving Reform and Eesti 200 with 52 of 101 seats. How the Riigikogu polls moved before and after. Comparing each pollster with itself: its last poll before 9 March 2025 and its first poll starting on or after 11 March 2025, for the 3 pollsters that polled in both periods.
The polls moved after these events. That does not mean the events caused the change: other news happened in the same weeks, and each poll has a margin of error of about 2 to 3 points.
Change by party or candidate
3 pollsters| Party | Average change | Range | Pollsters up / down | Verdict | Average now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isamaa | -2.7 | -4.2 … +0.2 | 1 / 2 | Mixed | 20.3% |
| Social Democratic Party (SDE) | -1.9 | -4.0 … -0.4 | 0 / 3 | Fell with every pollster | 16.9% |
| Centre Party (Keskerakond) | +1.2 | +0.8 … +1.8 | 3 / 0 | Slight rise with every pollster | 21.6% |
| Conservative People's Party (EKRE) | +1.1 | -1.1 … +4.0 | 2 / 1 | Mixed | 15.0% |
| Others (Greens, Koos, Left Alliance, ERK, others) | +1.0 | +0.4 … +1.6 | 3 / 0 | Slight rise with every pollster | 4.2% |
| Parempoolsed | +1.0 | -0.2 … +2.1 | 2 / 1 | Mixed | 6.6% |
| Reform Party (Reformierakond) | +0.9 | -1.6 … +3.2 | 2 / 1 | Little change | 11.8% |
| Estonia 200 (Eesti 200) | -0.6 | -1.3 … +0.4 | 1 / 2 | Little change | 1.8% |
Each pollster, before and after
Before ≤ 9 Mar · After ≥ 11 Mar| Pollster | Before | After | Isamaa | SDE | Keskerakond | EKRE | Greens, Koos, Left Alliance, ERK, others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norstat | 9 Mar | 23 Mar | +0.2 | -0.4 | +1.8 | +0.3 | +1.6 |
| Emor | 19 Feb | 19 Mar | -4.2 | -1.3 | +0.8 | -1.1 | +0.4 |
| Turu-uuringute AS | 16 Feb | 9 Apr | -4.0 | -4.0 | +1.0 | +4.0 | +1.0 |
End of fieldwork; each date links to the poll's source. Changes in points.
What happened
- 10 Mar · Michal announces a "government repair" and expels SDE; Reform and Eesti 200 say they will move to the right and drop several planned tax rises. SDE leader Lauri Läänemets calls it "a stab in the back".
- 11 Mar · Michal asks the President to dismiss the SDE ministers.
- 25 Mar · Five new ministers take office, including Igor Taro (Interior) and Karmen Joller (Social Affairs).
Sources
How we measure
- Same pollster, before and after: comparing different pollsters would mistake their usual differences for movement.
- A candidate 'rose' or 'fell' only when at least 3 pollsters all moved the same way and the average change is 1.5 points or more; under 1 point is 'little change'; anything else is 'mixed'.
- Events are chosen by Sondagio and described from the cited sources. Polls: every published poll, as in the race's average.
- Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. No figures are adjusted by hand.