One Nation wins Farrer, then the 2026 budget
9 May 2026 – 12 May 2026Updated
One Nation rose with 9 of 10 pollsters (+3.5).
On 9 May 2026 One Nation's David Farley won the Farrer by-election, the party's first House seat won at an election; three days later Treasurer Jim Chalmers presented the federal budget. How the federal polls moved before and after. Comparing each pollster with itself: its last poll before 8 May 2026 and its first poll starting on or after 13 May 2026, for the 10 pollsters that polled in both periods.
The polls moved after these events. That does not mean the events caused the change: other news happened in the same weeks, and each poll has a margin of error of about 2 to 3 points.
Change by party or candidate
10 pollsters| Party | Average change | Range | Pollsters up / down | Verdict | Average now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| One Nation | +3.5 | 0.0 … +10.5 | 9 / 0 | Rose with most pollsters | 26.8% |
| Labor | -1.6 | -4.0 … 0.0 | 0 / 7 | Mixed | 26.3% |
| Liberal/National Coalition | -0.9 | -7.5 … +2.0 | 2 / 6 | Little change | 23.0% |
| Greens | -0.8 | -3.0 … 0.0 | 0 / 6 | Little change | 13.1% |
| Others | -0.1 | -2.0 … +2.0 | 5 / 5 | Little change | 10.8% |
Each pollster, before and after
Before ≤ 8 May · After ≥ 13 May| Pollster | Before | After | One Nation | Labor | LNP | Greens | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Morgan | 3 May | 14 May | +10.5 | -1.0 | -7.5 | -1.5 | -0.5 |
| RedBridge/Accent | 30 Apr | 28 May | +4.0 | -3.0 | -2.0 | -1.0 | +2.0 |
| Spectre Strategy | 8 Apr | 23 Jul | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| DemosAU | 14 Apr | 20 May | +2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -2.0 |
| Newspoll | 16 Apr | 17 May | +3.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 |
| Resolve | 18 Apr | 16 May | +2.0 | -3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| Essential | 27 Apr | 25 May | +3.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 |
| YouGov | 5 May | 2 Jun | +5.0 | -4.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | +1.0 |
| Freshwater | 30 Apr | 15 May | +1.0 | -3.0 | +2.0 | -1.0 | +1.0 |
| Fox & Hedgehog | 25 Mar | 26 May | +4.0 | -1.0 | +2.0 | -3.0 | -2.0 |
End of fieldwork; each date links to the poll's source. Changes in points.
What happened
- 9 May · Farrer by-election, caused by Sussan Ley's resignation: One Nation's David Farley defeats independent Michelle Milthorpe, 57.5% to 42.5% after preferences.
- 12 May · Jim Chalmers presents the 2026 federal budget, with a tax cut for workers and a partial removal of the capital gains tax discount and negative gearing.
Sources
How we measure
- Same pollster, before and after: comparing different pollsters would mistake their usual differences for movement.
- A candidate 'rose' or 'fell' only when at least 3 pollsters all moved the same way and the average change is 1.5 points or more; under 1 point is 'little change'; anything else is 'mixed'.
- Events are chosen by Sondagio and described from the cited sources. Polls: every published poll, as in the race's average.
- Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. No figures are adjusted by hand.