Finland's 2025 municipal and county elections
Finns Party (PS) fell with all 2 pollsters (-3.9 points on average); Centre Party (KESK) rose with all 2 (+1.8); National Coalition Party (KOK) edged up with all 2 pollsters (+0.6).
In the April 2025 municipal and county elections the Social Democrats came first and the Finns Party, a partner in Petteri Orpo's government, lost nearly half its 2021 share. How the national parliamentary polls moved before and after. Comparing each pollster with itself: its last poll before 12 April 2025 and its first poll starting on or after 14 April 2025, for the 2 pollsters that polled in both periods.
The polls moved after these events. That does not mean the events caused the change: other news happened in the same weeks, and each poll has a margin of error of about 2 to 3 points.
Change by party or candidate
2 pollsters| Party | Average change | Range | Pollsters up / down | Verdict | Average now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finns Party (PS) | -3.9 | -4.0 … -3.7 | 0 / 2 | Fell with every pollster | 16.0% |
| Centre Party (KESK) | +1.8 | +1.4 … +2.1 | 2 / 0 | Rose with every pollster | 13.0% |
| Social Democratic Party (SDP) | +1.5 | +1.1 … +1.9 | 2 / 0 | Rose with every pollster | 23.1% |
| National Coalition Party (KOK) | +0.6 | +0.6 … +0.6 | 2 / 0 | Slight rise with every pollster | 15.8% |
| Left Alliance (VAS) | +0.6 | +0.4 … +0.7 | 2 / 0 | Slight rise with every pollster | 12.1% |
| Movement Now (Liike Nyt) | -0.4 | -0.8 … +0.1 | 1 / 1 | Little change | 2.2% |
| Green League (VIHR) | -0.4 | -0.9 … +0.1 | 1 / 1 | Little change | 8.6% |
| Others | +0.3 | 0.0 … +0.7 | 1 / 0 | Little change | 1.9% |
Each pollster, before and after
Before ≤ 12 Apr · After ≥ 14 Apr| Pollster | Before | After | PS | KESK | SDP | KOK | VAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taloustutkimus | 7 Apr | 6 May | -4.0 | +1.4 | +1.9 | +0.6 | +0.4 |
| Verian | 16 Mar | 18 May | -3.7 | +2.1 | +1.1 | +0.6 | +0.7 |
End of fieldwork; each date links to the poll's source. Changes in points.
What happened
- 13 Apr · Municipal and county (wellbeing services county) elections are held on the same day.
- 13 Apr · Municipal result: SDP 23.1% (+5.3), National Coalition 21.9% (+0.5), Centre 16.4% (+1.5), Left Alliance 9.3% (+1.3), Finns Party 7.6% (−6.8); turnout 54.3%.
- 13 Apr · It is the first time since 2004 that the SDP has won the largest share of the vote in a municipal election.
Sources
How we measure
- Same pollster, before and after: comparing different pollsters would mistake their usual differences for movement.
- A candidate 'rose' or 'fell' only when at least 3 pollsters all moved the same way and the average change is 1.5 points or more; under 1 point is 'little change'; anything else is 'mixed'.
- Events are chosen by Sondagio and described from the cited sources. Polls: every published poll, as in the race's average.
- Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. No figures are adjusted by hand.