The STEA grants dispute and the Garden Helsinki arena affair
Finns Party (PS) rose with all 2 (+2.0); National Coalition Party (KOK) edged down with all 2 pollsters (-1.1); Social Democratic Party (SDP) edged down with all 2 pollsters (-0.7).
In June 2026 a row over Finns Party minister Wille Rydman's grant criteria split the coalition; in July questions over a €35 million state subsidy for the Garden Helsinki arena led parliament back from recess for confidence votes on Petteri Orpo's government. How the parliamentary polls moved before and after. Comparing each pollster with itself: its last poll before 14 June 2026 and its first poll starting on or after 22 July 2026, for the 2 pollsters that polled in both periods.
The polls moved after these events. That does not mean the events caused the change: other news happened in the same weeks, and each poll has a margin of error of about 2 to 3 points.
Change by party or candidate
2 pollsters| Party | Average change | Range | Pollsters up / down | Verdict | Average now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finns Party (PS) | +2.0 | +1.6 … +2.5 | 2 / 0 | Rose with every pollster | 16.0% |
| National Coalition Party (KOK) | -1.1 | -1.3 … -0.8 | 0 / 2 | Slight fall with every pollster | 15.8% |
| Social Democratic Party (SDP) | -0.7 | -0.9 … -0.4 | 0 / 2 | Slight fall with every pollster | 23.1% |
| Left Alliance (VAS) | +0.6 | +0.5 … +0.6 | 2 / 0 | Slight rise with every pollster | 12.1% |
| Centre Party (KESK) | -0.3 | -0.6 … 0.0 | 0 / 1 | Little change | 13.0% |
| Others | -0.3 | -0.5 … -0.2 | 0 / 2 | Little change | 1.9% |
| Green League (VIHR) | -0.3 | -0.5 … -0.1 | 0 / 2 | Little change | 8.6% |
| Movement Now (Liike Nyt) | +0.2 | +0.2 … +0.2 | 2 / 0 | Little change | 2.2% |
Each pollster, before and after
Before ≤ 14 Jun · After ≥ 22 Jul| Pollster | Before | After | PS | KOK | SDP | VAS | KESK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taloustutkimus | 1 Jun | 1 Sept | +2.5 | -1.3 | -0.4 | +0.5 | -0.6 |
| Verian | 18 May | 14 Sept | +1.6 | -0.8 | -0.9 | +0.6 | 0.0 |
End of fieldwork; each date links to the poll's source. Changes in points.
What happened
- 15 Jun · Social Affairs Minister Wille Rydman (Finns Party) issues new criteria for STEA grants to health and welfare organisations without the coalition partners' agreement.
- 23 Jun · The cabinet votes 10–7 to send the criteria back for review, with the Finns Party opposed; Rydman survives a no-confidence vote 88–74 as all ten Swedish People's Party MPs abstain.
- 30 Jun · Orpo defends a conditional €35 million subsidy for the Garden Helsinki arena, whose project company is chaired by former National Coalition minister Jan Vapaavuori, amid questions over lobbying.
- 16 Jul · Orpo admits a "mistake" over the financing; MPs agree to break off their summer recess.
- 20 Jul · After an extraordinary session, the government withdraws the subsidy; no state money had been paid.
- 21 Jul · After about nine hours of debate, parliament votes 101–90 for confidence in Orpo and then in the government.
Sources
- Yle News, Rydman survives confidence vote; SFP abstention exposes divisions (23 Jun 2026)
- Wikipedia, Orpo cabinet
- Helsinki Times, Orpo: Government drops Garden Helsinki subsidy (20 Jul 2026)
- Yle News, Orpo wins confidence vote after Garden Helsinki controversy (22 Jul 2026)
- Bloomberg, Finland's Government Survives Confidence Vote After Lobbying Scandal Debate (21 Jul 2026)
How we measure
- Same pollster, before and after: comparing different pollsters would mistake their usual differences for movement.
- A candidate 'rose' or 'fell' only when at least 3 pollsters all moved the same way and the average change is 1.5 points or more; under 1 point is 'little change'; anything else is 'mixed'.
- Events are chosen by Sondagio and described from the cited sources. Polls: every published poll, as in the race's average.
- Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. No figures are adjusted by hand.