The 2026 protests and riots in France
Édouard Philippe fell with all 4 pollsters (-3.7 points on average); Raphaël Glucksmann rose with all 4 (+1.9); Marine Le Pen rose with 3 of 4 pollsters (+1.3).
School blockades that began in September became nationwide marches in October, peaking on 17 October with riots and thousands of arrests. How the 2027 presidential polls moved before and after. Comparing each pollster with itself: its last poll before 30 September 2026 and its first poll starting on or after 18 October 2026, for the 4 pollsters that polled in both periods.
The polls moved after these events. That does not mean the events caused the change: other news happened in the same weeks, and each poll has a margin of error of about 2 to 3 points.
Change by party or candidate
4 pollsters| Candidate | Average change | Range | Pollsters up / down | Verdict | Average now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Édouard Philippe | -3.7 | -6.0 … -1.0 | 0 / 4 | Fell with every pollster | 15.0% |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | +1.9 | +0.5 … +3.0 | 4 / 0 | Rose with every pollster | 12.9% |
| Marine Le Pen | +1.3 | -1.0 … +4.0 | 3 / 1 | Rose with most pollsters | 34.3% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | +1.0 | 0.0 … +2.0 | 3 / 0 | Rose with most pollsters | 17.5% |
| Fabien Roussel | -0.9 | -1.2 … -0.5 | 0 / 4 | Slight fall with every pollster | 2.0% |
| Éric Zemmour | +0.7 | 0.0 … +1.5 | 3 / 0 | Little change | 4.0% |
| Marine Tondelier | -0.3 | -1.0 … +0.5 | 1 / 3 | Little change | 3.3% |
| Nathalie Arthaud | +0.2 | 0.0 … +0.5 | 2 / 0 | Little change | 0.7% |
Each pollster, before and after
Before ≤ 30 Sept · After ≥ 18 Oct| Pollster | Before | After | Philippe | Glucksmann | Le Pen | Mélenchon | Roussel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluna Harris Interactive | 10 Sept | 21 Oct | -1.0 | +3.0 | +1.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 |
| Ifop | 29 Sept | 29 Oct | -6.0 | +0.5 | +4.0 | +1.5 | -1.0 |
| Cluster17 | 16 Sept | 22 Oct | -3.8 | +2.0 | +1.2 | +0.4 | -1.2 |
| Ipsos BVA | 2 Sept | 22 Oct | -4.0 | +2.0 | -1.0 | +2.0 | -0.5 |
End of fieldwork; each date links to the poll's source. Changes in points.
What happened
- 15 Sept · Workers in several sectors demonstrate over the cost of living; the movement's start date.
- 1 Oct · Second nationwide day of action: universities join; the Interior Ministry counts 1,027 lycées affected.
- 13 Oct · Fifth nationwide day: 161,500 marchers according to the Interior Ministry, 480,000 according to the youth unions.
- 17 Oct · Largest day: 550,000 marchers in 110 marches according to the Interior Ministry (800,000 according to organisers); riots and looting follow, including a fire at Limoges town hall.
- 18 Oct · About 1,800 arrests nationwide by the morning; President Macron addresses the country that evening.
- 5 Nov · National strike over the cost of living: 575,000 marchers according to the Interior Ministry; largely peaceful.
Sources
How we measure
- Same pollster, before and after: comparing different pollsters would mistake their usual differences for movement.
- A candidate 'rose' or 'fell' only when at least 3 pollsters all moved the same way and the average change is 1.5 points or more; under 1 point is 'little change'; anything else is 'mixed'.
- Events are chosen by Sondagio and described from the cited sources. Polls: every published poll, as in the race's average.
- Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. No figures are adjusted by hand.