The 2027 budget and the centre-left's primaries plan
28 October 2026 – 4 November 2026Updated
Futuro Nazionale edged down with all 6 pollsters (-0.5).
The cabinet approved a budget of about €26 billion on 28 October; two days later the PD, M5S and AVS leaders agreed to hold primaries for a joint PM candidate by February 2027. How the polls moved before and after. Comparing each pollster with itself: its last poll before 27 October 2026 and its first poll starting on or after 31 October 2026, for the 6 pollsters that polled in both periods.
The polls moved after these events. That does not mean the events caused the change: other news happened in the same weeks, and each poll has a margin of error of about 2 to 3 points.
Change by party or candidate
6 pollsters| Party | Average change | Range | Pollsters up / down | Verdict | Average now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Futuro Nazionale | -0.5 | -0.7 … -0.1 | 0 / 6 | Slight fall with every pollster | 6.7% |
| +Europa | -0.2 | -0.4 … 0.0 | 0 / 4 | Little change | 1.4% |
| Forza Italia | -0.2 | -0.7 … +0.1 | 1 / 4 | Little change | 7.1% |
| Lega | +0.2 | -0.3 … +0.7 | 5 / 1 | Little change | 5.8% |
| Azione | +0.1 | -0.1 … +0.3 | 3 / 1 | Little change | 3.1% |
| Fratelli d'Italia | +0.1 | -0.4 … +0.4 | 4 / 2 | Little change | 27.5% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle | +0.1 | -0.4 … +0.6 | 3 / 3 | Little change | 12.9% |
| Partito Democratico | +0.1 | -0.3 … +0.4 | 4 / 2 | Little change | 20.4% |
Each pollster, before and after
Before ≤ 27 Oct · After ≥ 31 Oct| Pollster | Before | After | FN | +Europa | Forza Italia | Lega | Azione |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Termometro Politico | 22 Oct | 5 Nov | -0.7 | 0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | 0.0 |
| SWG | 26 Oct | 9 Nov | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| Quorum | 6 Oct | 9 Nov | -0.6 | – | -0.7 | +0.7 | +0.3 |
| Eumetra | 21 Oct | 4 Nov | -0.7 | -0.2 | -0.1 | +0.5 | 0.0 |
| EMG | 20 Oct | 3 Nov | -0.5 | -0.2 | -0.2 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| Only Numbers | 22 Oct | 5 Nov | -0.3 | -0.4 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
End of fieldwork; each date links to the poll's source. Changes in points.
What happened
- 28 Oct · The Council of Ministers approves the 2027 budget bill, worth about €26 billion; Meloni presents it as a multi-year plan.
- 30 Oct · Schlein, Conte, Bonelli and Fratoianni agree in a three-hour video call on a joint programme by November, primaries by February 2027 and a national demonstration against the budget in December. Primary rules remain open.
- 4 Nov · On PiazzaPulita, Conte says it would have been wiser for both him and Schlein to step back, but that the primaries will go ahead.
Sources
- Open, Manovra, il provvedimento vale circa 26 miliardi (28 Oct 2026)
- QuiFinanza, Legge di Bilancio, approvata la Manovra 2027 (28 Oct 2026)
- Open, Campo largo, i prossimi passi: programma, primarie e manifestazione (30 Oct 2026)
- Virgilio Notizie, Campo largo trova l'intesa per le primarie (30 Oct 2026)
- S&H Magazine, Campo largo, Conte e le primarie con Schlein (5 Nov 2026)
How we measure
- Same pollster, before and after: comparing different pollsters would mistake their usual differences for movement.
- A candidate 'rose' or 'fell' only when at least 3 pollsters all moved the same way and the average change is 1.5 points or more; under 1 point is 'little change'; anything else is 'mixed'.
- Events are chosen by Sondagio and described from the cited sources. Polls: every published poll, as in the race's average.
- Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. No figures are adjusted by hand.