Italy's new electoral law (2026)
The polls barely moved: no party or candidate changed by more than 0.6 points on average.
After three confidence votes, the Chamber of Deputies gave final approval on 8 October to a proportional system with a seat bonus for any list or coalition above 42%, replacing the Rosatellum. How the polls moved before and after. Comparing each pollster with itself: its last poll before 5 October 2026 and its first poll starting on or after 10 October 2026, for the 9 pollsters that polled in both periods.
The polls moved after these events. That does not mean the events caused the change: other news happened in the same weeks, and each poll has a margin of error of about 2 to 3 points.
Change by party or candidate
9 pollsters| Party | Average change | Range | Pollsters up / down | Verdict | Average now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Futuro Nazionale | -0.6 | -1.1 … 0.0 | 0 / 7 | Little change | 6.7% |
| Fratelli d'Italia | +0.6 | 0.0 … +1.6 | 8 / 0 | Little change | 27.5% |
| Partito Democratico | -0.3 | -1.2 … +0.4 | 2 / 4 | Little change | 20.4% |
| Forza Italia | -0.2 | -1.0 … +0.2 | 2 / 5 | Little change | 7.1% |
| +Europa | -0.1 | -0.4 … +0.1 | 1 / 5 | Little change | 1.4% |
| Azione | +0.1 | 0.0 … +0.2 | 5 / 0 | Little change | 3.1% |
| Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra | -0.1 | -0.5 … +0.5 | 2 / 5 | Little change | 6.3% |
| Italia Viva | +0.1 | -0.1 … +0.5 | 5 / 1 | Little change | 2.4% |
New since the event: Sud chiama Nord, on 1.1% on average in the 7 polls after it.
Each pollster, before and after
Before ≤ 5 Oct · After ≥ 10 Oct| Pollster | Before | After | FN | FdI | PD | Forza Italia | +Europa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Termometro Politico | 1 Oct | 15 Oct | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
| SWG | 5 Oct | 19 Oct | -0.6 | +0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.2 |
| Quorum | 22 Sept | 28 Oct | -1.1 | +1.6 | -1.2 | -0.3 | – |
| Ipsos | 24 Sept | 29 Oct | -0.9 | +0.3 | +0.4 | -1.0 | -0.3 |
| Piepoli | 5 Oct | 14 Oct | 0.0 | +0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| BiDiMedia | 6 Sept | 19 Oct | -0.6 | +1.1 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.1 |
| Eumetra | 30 Sept | 14 Oct | -0.7 | +0.4 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| EMG | 22 Sept | 20 Oct | -1.1 | +0.9 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.2 |
| Only Numbers | 1 Oct | 15 Oct | -0.2 | +0.5 | +0.3 | +0.2 | -0.4 |
End of fieldwork; each date links to the poll's source. Changes in points.
What happened
- 15 Sept · The Senate approves the bill with amendments (113 in favour, 71 against), sending it back to the Chamber for a third reading.
- 6 Oct · The government puts confidence votes on the bill's articles in the Chamber; the last of the three passes on 7 October.
- 8 Oct · Final approval in the Chamber by secret ballot, 227 to 164. The opposition says the law is designed to favour the governing coalition; Prime Minister Meloni says whoever wins must be able to govern.
- 9 Oct · President Mattarella signs it as Law 180/2026; it is published in the Gazzetta Ufficiale the same day and takes effect on 24 October.
- 26 Oct · Citizens' groups begin filing constitutional challenges against the law in courts across Italy.
- 3 Nov · Challenges are reported in 25 courts, with the first hearing set for 16 December in Trento; the law stays in force meanwhile.
Sources
- Il Post, Il Senato ha approvato la nuova legge elettorale (15 Sep 2026)
- Reuters via Internazionale, Italy's Meloni secures final approval for contested electoral reform (8 Oct 2026)
- Camera dei deputati, Legge elettorale, approvazione definitiva
- Wikipedia (it), Legge Bignami
- Sky TG24, Nuova legge elettorale: depositati ricorsi in tutta Italia (26 Oct 2026)
- L'informazione, Legge elettorale, ricorsi in 25 tribunali (3 Nov 2026)
How we measure
- Same pollster, before and after: comparing different pollsters would mistake their usual differences for movement.
- A candidate 'rose' or 'fell' only when at least 3 pollsters all moved the same way and the average change is 1.5 points or more; under 1 point is 'little change'; anything else is 'mixed'.
- Events are chosen by Sondagio and described from the cited sources. Polls: every published poll, as in the race's average.
- Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. No figures are adjusted by hand.