Newsom discloses a Justice Department investigation
No party or candidate moved the same way with every pollster.
On 15 June 2026 California governor Gavin Newsom said the Justice Department was investigating him and his wife, Jennifer Siebel Newsom, over finances tied to her nonprofit and business; he called it politically motivated. How the polls moved before and after. Comparing each pollster with itself: its last poll before 14 June 2026 and its first poll starting on or after 16 June 2026, for the 7 pollsters that polled in both periods.
The polls moved after these events. That does not mean the events caused the change: other news happened in the same weeks, and each poll has a margin of error of about 2 to 3 points.
Change by party or candidate
7 pollsters| Candidate | Average change | Range | Pollsters up / down | Verdict | Average now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | -2.6 | -9.9 … +3.0 | 3 / 4 | Mixed | 23.3% |
| Pete Buttigieg | +1.3 | -1.0 … +9.1 | 2 / 2 | Mixed | 10.2% |
| Josh Shapiro | -0.8 | -5.0 … +4.0 | 2 / 4 | Little change | 4.8% |
| Andy Beshear | -0.5 | -1.5 … +1.0 | 1 / 2 | Little change | 2.6% |
| JB Pritzker | +0.3 | -2.0 … +3.0 | 3 / 2 | Little change | 3.2% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | +0.1 | -3.0 … +2.0 | 4 / 3 | Little change | 10.2% |
| Gavin Newsom | -0.1 | -2.0 … +2.0 | 2 / 2 | Little change | 13.5% |
| Cory Booker | 0.0 | 0.0 … 0.0 | 0 / 0 | Little change | 2.1% |
Each pollster, before and after
Before ≤ 14 Jun · After ≥ 16 Jun| Pollster | Before | After | Harris | Buttigieg | Shapiro | Beshear | Pritzker |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights | 14 Jun | 13 Jul | +1.0 | -1.0 | +1.0 | – | 0.0 |
| Emerson College | 25 May | 20 Jul | -9.9 | +9.1 | -5.0 | -1.5 | -1.4 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 18 May | 23 Jun | -2.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | – | +3.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 20 May | 4 Aug | +3.0 | 0.0 | -3.0 | – | – |
| Harvard Harris | 31 May | 12 Jul | -7.0 | – | -1.0 | – | -2.0 |
| Focaldata | 1 Jun | 30 Jun | -4.0 | 0.0 | +4.0 | -1.0 | +1.0 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 4 Jun | 16 Aug | +1.0 | +1.0 | – | +1.0 | +1.0 |
End of fieldwork; each date links to the poll's source. Changes in points.
What happened
- 15 Jun · Newsom says he and his wife are under DOJ investigation and calls it a political attack by the Trump administration.
- 16 Jun · CNN reports the probe concerns alleged tax-related conduct involving Siebel Newsom; the LA Times reports it began the previous year. No charges have been filed.
Sources
How we measure
- Same pollster, before and after: comparing different pollsters would mistake their usual differences for movement.
- A candidate 'rose' or 'fell' only when at least 3 pollsters all moved the same way and the average change is 1.5 points or more; under 1 point is 'little change'; anything else is 'mixed'.
- Events are chosen by Sondagio and described from the cited sources. Polls: every published poll, as in the race's average.
- Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. No figures are adjusted by hand.