Newsom says he won't run if Harris does
14 September 2026 – 14 September 2026Updated
No party or candidate moved the same way with every pollster.
In a CNN interview aired 14 September 2026, Gavin Newsom said he would not seek the 2028 nomination if Kamala Harris runs, calling a head-to-head primary 'mutual assured destruction'. How the polls moved before and after. Comparing each pollster with itself: its last poll before 13 September 2026 and its first poll starting on or after 15 September 2026, for the 5 pollsters that polled in both periods.
The polls moved after these events. That does not mean the events caused the change: other news happened in the same weeks, and each poll has a margin of error of about 2 to 3 points.
Change by party or candidate
5 pollsters| Candidate | Average change | Range | Pollsters up / down | Verdict | Average now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Shapiro | -1.4 | -3.0 … 0.0 | 0 / 3 | Mixed | 4.8% |
| Jon Ossoff | +1.0 | -1.0 … +3.0 | 2 / 1 | Mixed | 7.8% |
| Kamala Harris | +0.8 | -4.0 … +6.0 | 3 / 1 | Little change | 23.3% |
| Mark Kelly | +0.8 | -1.0 … +3.0 | 2 / 1 | Little change | 5.8% |
| Pete Buttigieg | -0.8 | -3.0 … +2.0 | 1 / 3 | Little change | 10.2% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | -0.4 | -4.0 … +3.0 | 2 / 3 | Little change | 10.2% |
| Gavin Newsom | -0.4 | -4.0 … +2.0 | 2 / 2 | Little change | 13.5% |
| Cory Booker | +0.3 | 0.0 … +1.0 | 1 / 0 | Little change | 2.1% |
Each pollster, before and after
Before ≤ 13 Sept · After ≥ 15 Sept| Pollster | Before | After | Shapiro | Ossoff | Harris | Kelly | Buttigieg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights | 17 Aug | 21 Sept | -3.0 | +3.0 | +6.0 | 0.0 | -3.0 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 24 Aug | 22 Sept | -1.0 | – | 0.0 | +1.0 | -1.0 |
| Harvard Harris | 30 Aug | 28 Sept | 0.0 | -1.0 | -4.0 | – | +2.0 |
| Focaldata | 2 Sept | 28 Sept | -3.0 | +1.0 | +1.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 16 Aug | 7 Oct | 0.0 | – | +1.0 | +3.0 | -2.0 |
End of fieldwork; each date links to the poll's source. Changes in points.
What happened
- 14 Sept · Newsom tells CNN's Jake Tapper 'I wouldn't run if she ran', and repeats it when pressed.
Sources
How we measure
- Same pollster, before and after: comparing different pollsters would mistake their usual differences for movement.
- A candidate 'rose' or 'fell' only when at least 3 pollsters all moved the same way and the average change is 1.5 points or more; under 1 point is 'little change'; anything else is 'mixed'.
- Events are chosen by Sondagio and described from the cited sources. Polls: every published poll, as in the race's average.
- Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. No figures are adjusted by hand.