The Constitutional Tribunal crisis
14 October 2026 – 3 November 2026Updated
Civic Coalition (KO) fell with all 3 pollsters (-1.6 points on average); Development Plus (R+) edged down with all 3 pollsters (-0.9).
On 30 October a judge elected by the current Sejm suspended Tribunal President Bogdan Święczkowski; President Nawrocki turned his plane back and entered the court building overnight amid protests. How the polls moved before and after. Comparing each pollster with itself: its last poll before 29 October 2026 and its first poll starting on or after 31 October 2026, for the 3 pollsters that polled in both periods.
The polls moved after these events. That does not mean the events caused the change: other news happened in the same weeks, and each poll has a margin of error of about 2 to 3 points.
Change by party or candidate
3 pollsters| Party | Average change | Range | Pollsters up / down | Verdict | Average now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civic Coalition (KO) | -1.6 | -2.1 … -0.8 | 0 / 3 | Fell with every pollster | 32.3% |
| The Left (Lewica) | +1.1 | -0.2 … +3.4 | 1 / 1 | Mixed | 7.2% |
| Confederation of the Polish Crown (KKP, Braun) | +0.9 | 0.0 … +2.1 | 2 / 0 | Little change | 9.4% |
| Development Plus (R+) | -0.9 | -1.2 … -0.6 | 0 / 3 | Slight fall with every pollster | 4.9% |
| Polish People's Party (PSL) | -0.7 | -1.5 … +0.7 | 1 / 2 | Little change | 3.6% |
| Confederation (Konfederacja) | +0.5 | -2.0 … +3.0 | 2 / 1 | Little change | 13.6% |
| Law and Justice (PiS) | +0.4 | -3.0 … +2.6 | 2 / 1 | Little change | 22.3% |
| Razem | +0.3 | -1.8 … +2.0 | 2 / 1 | Little change | 4.3% |
Each pollster, before and after
Before ≤ 29 Oct · After ≥ 31 Oct| Pollster | Before | After | KO | Lewica | KKP, Braun | R+ | PSL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBOS | 8 Oct | 4 Nov | -0.8 | +3.4 | +0.5 | -1.2 | -1.2 |
| Opinia24 | 7 Oct | 4 Nov | -2.1 | -0.2 | 0.0 | -0.6 | +0.7 |
| United Surveys | 18 Oct | 2 Nov | -2.0 | 0.0 | +2.1 | -0.9 | -1.5 |
End of fieldwork; each date links to the poll's source. Changes in points.
What happened
- 14 Oct · Maciej Berek takes his oath as a Tribunal judge at a ceremony in parliament after the President declined to swear him in; he is the fifth judge to do so. Święczkowski does not admit these judges to the court.
- 15 Oct · Nawrocki vetoes a bill redistributing Sejm seats by population, along with bills on European Court of Human Rights rulings and on political advertising.
- 30 Oct · Judge Anna Korwin-Piotrowska orders a one-month suspension of Święczkowski and Vice-President Bartłomiej Sochański and takes charge of the Tribunal; Prosecutor General Waldemar Żurek seeks to lift their immunity. Nawrocki, flying to Senegal, turns back.
- 31 Oct · Around 1 a.m. Nawrocki enters the Tribunal building amid scuffles at the door while protesters and police gather outside; he calls it a "forceful takeover" of a constitutional body. Tusk says restoring the rule of law requires decisive action.
- 3 Nov · A general assembly of Tribunal judges convened by Korwin-Piotrowska meets; Święczkowski and the judges aligned with him stay away.
Sources
- Notes from Poland, Polish president in physical confrontation with judges amid power struggle at constitutional court (31 Oct 2026)
- TVN24, Zawieszony Święczkowski, prezydent w siedzibie TK, protesty przed gmachem (31 Oct 2026)
- PAP, Informacja o zawieszeniu prezesa TK Święczkowskiego (30 Oct 2026)
- NBC News, Polish president turns back from Senegal trip as top court chief suspended (Oct 2026)
- CNN, Poland's top court: long-running spat between PM and president erupts (1 Nov 2026)
- Notes from Poland, New Polish constitutional court judge takes oath in defiance of president (14 Oct 2026)
- TVP World, Nawrocki vetoes key electoral reform bill (15 Oct 2026)
- OKO.press, Starzy sędziowie nie zablokowali zgromadzenia TK (3 Nov 2026)
How we measure
- Same pollster, before and after: comparing different pollsters would mistake their usual differences for movement.
- A candidate 'rose' or 'fell' only when at least 3 pollsters all moved the same way and the average change is 1.5 points or more; under 1 point is 'little change'; anything else is 'mixed'.
- Events are chosen by Sondagio and described from the cited sources. Polls: every published poll, as in the race's average.
- Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. No figures are adjusted by hand.