The PiS split and Morawiecki's Rozwój Plus
Law and Justice (PiS) fell with all 7 pollsters (-4.1 points on average); The Left (Lewica) fell with 6 of 7 pollsters (-1.3).
After some 30–40 MPs aligned with former prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki refused a loyalty pledge, Jarosław Kaczyński said on 24 July that they had left PiS; within a week they formed their own Sejm club. How the polls moved before and after. Comparing each pollster with itself: its last poll before 23 July 2026 and its first poll starting on or after 30 July 2026, for the 7 pollsters that polled in both periods.
The polls moved after these events. That does not mean the events caused the change: other news happened in the same weeks, and each poll has a margin of error of about 2 to 3 points.
Change by party or candidate
7 pollsters| Party | Average change | Range | Pollsters up / down | Verdict | Average now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Law and Justice (PiS) | -4.1 | -6.2 … -0.5 | 0 / 7 | Fell with every pollster | 22.3% |
| The Left (Lewica) | -1.3 | -2.4 … +0.7 | 1 / 6 | Fell with most pollsters | 7.2% |
| Razem | +0.9 | -2.0 … +2.6 | 6 / 1 | Little change | 4.3% |
| Civic Coalition (KO) | -0.5 | -2.4 … +1.0 | 3 / 4 | Little change | 32.3% |
| Confederation of the Polish Crown (KKP, Braun) | +0.4 | -2.1 … +2.5 | 5 / 2 | Little change | 9.4% |
| Others | +0.2 | -0.3 … +0.6 | 3 / 1 | Little change | 1.0% |
| Poland 2050 (Polska 2050) | +0.2 | -2.3 … +2.8 | 3 / 3 | Little change | 1.4% |
| Confederation (Konfederacja) | +0.1 | -2.6 … +2.3 | 4 / 3 | Little change | 13.6% |
New since the event: Development Plus (R+), on 5.2% on average in the 6 polls after it.
Each pollster, before and after
Before ≤ 23 Jul · After ≥ 30 Jul| Pollster | Before | After | PiS | Lewica | Razem | KO | KKP, Braun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBOS | 8 Jul | 20 Aug | -3.1 | -1.8 | +0.4 | +1.0 | +0.1 |
| Opinia24 | 8 Jul | 5 Aug | -6.2 | -2.4 | +1.9 | -1.3 | +1.0 |
| IBRiS | 3 Jul | 22 Aug | -5.0 | -1.8 | +2.6 | -0.3 | -2.1 |
| United Surveys | 17 Jul | 9 Aug | -0.5 | -0.9 | +1.2 | +0.8 | -1.0 |
| Pollster | 17 Jul | 2 Sept | -3.2 | +0.7 | -2.0 | +0.9 | +0.8 |
| Research Partner | 15 Jun | 21 Sept | -6.2 | -2.2 | +1.2 | -2.3 | +2.5 |
| Social Changes | 13 Jul | 3 Aug | -4.5 | -0.8 | +1.1 | -2.4 | +1.2 |
End of fieldwork; each date links to the poll's source. Changes in points.
What happened
- 15 Jul · PiS adopts a resolution requiring its MPs to leave outside political associations, with a deadline of midnight on 23 July; it targets the Rozwój Plus association Morawiecki founded in April.
- 24 Jul · Kaczyński says "30-something" MPs who did not sign have in effect left the party; Morawiecki says his group has 40 MPs, one senator and three MEPs.
- 28 Jul · Morawiecki steps down as president of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) Party.
- 29 Jul · Morawiecki announces a Rozwój Plus parliamentary club of 40 MPs and one senator, the third-largest in the Sejm.
- 3 Aug · Morawiecki says a new party will be founded by 15 October; in early October the formal founding is reported postponed by several months.
Sources
- Notes from Poland, Polish opposition PiS party set to split, with over 30 MPs being expelled (24 Jul 2026)
- Brussels Signal, PiS splits as ex-PM Morawiecki forced to leave (Jul 2026)
- Brussels Signal, Morawiecki resigns as ECR party leader (Jul 2026)
- Polsat News, Mateusz Morawiecki zapowiada nową partię. Podał termin (3 Aug 2026)
- Rzeczpospolita, Rozwój Plus. Politycy Morawieckiego „nie spieszą się” z założeniem partii (Oct 2026)
- Wikipedia, 2026 in Poland
How we measure
- Same pollster, before and after: comparing different pollsters would mistake their usual differences for movement.
- A candidate 'rose' or 'fell' only when at least 3 pollsters all moved the same way and the average change is 1.5 points or more; under 1 point is 'little change'; anything else is 'mixed'.
- Events are chosen by Sondagio and described from the cited sources. Polls: every published poll, as in the race's average.
- Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. No figures are adjusted by hand.