Sánchez calls a snap election for 29 November
Podemos edged down with all 12 pollsters (-1.2); Adelante Andalucía edged up with all 4 pollsters (+0.5).
After PP, Vox and Junts voted down two housing decrees on 2 October, Pedro Sánchez dissolved the Cortes on 5 October and called an election for 29 November. A week later the Frente Amplio named Ada Colau as its candidate. How the polls moved before and after. Comparing each pollster with itself: its last poll before 1 October 2026 and its first poll starting on or after 13 October 2026, for the 13 pollsters that polled in both periods.
The polls moved after these events. That does not mean the events caused the change: other news happened in the same weeks, and each poll has a margin of error of about 2 to 3 points.
Change by party or candidate
13 pollsters| Party | Average change | Range | Pollsters up / down | Verdict | Average now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Podemos | -1.2 | -1.8 … -0.4 | 0 / 12 | Slight fall with every pollster | 1.8% |
| Partido Popular | -1.0 | -2.1 … +0.8 | 3 / 10 | Mixed | 31.5% |
| PSOE | +0.7 | -1.0 … +2.5 | 9 / 4 | Little change | 26.8% |
| Vox | +0.6 | -0.6 … +1.7 | 11 / 2 | Little change | 19.0% |
| Adelante Andalucía | +0.5 | +0.2 … +0.6 | 4 / 0 | Slight rise with every pollster | 1.5% |
| ERC | +0.2 | 0.0 … +0.5 | 5 / 0 | Little change | 2.4% |
| Junts | +0.1 | 0.0 … +0.3 | 4 / 0 | Little change | 1.4% |
| PNV | -0.1 | -0.2 … 0.0 | 0 / 5 | Little change | 0.8% |
New since the event: Front Valencià, on 1.2% on average in the 5 polls after it.
New since the event: Frente Amplio, on 6.2% on average in the 13 polls after it.
Each pollster, before and after
Before ≤ 1 Oct · After ≥ 13 Oct| Pollster | Before | After | Podemos | PP | PSOE | Vox | AA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EM-Analytics | 25 Sept | 17 Oct | -1.8 | -0.5 | +1.8 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| Sigma Dos | 1 Oct | 30 Oct | -1.4 | -1.5 | -1.0 | +1.0 | +0.6 |
| 40dB | 28 Sept | 4 Nov | -1.5 | +0.3 | +2.5 | -0.4 | – |
| NC Report | 3 Sept | 24 Oct | -0.8 | -1.4 | +0.9 | +0.7 | – |
| DYM | 21 Sept | 6 Nov | -1.8 | -1.6 | +1.0 | +1.3 | – |
| Hamalgama Métrica | 8 Sept | 28 Oct | -1.6 | -1.2 | +1.3 | +0.6 | – |
| Target Point | 10 Sept | 30 Oct | -0.4 | +0.3 | -0.1 | +1.0 | – |
| GAD3 | 3 Sept | 5 Nov | -1.7 | +0.8 | -0.2 | -0.6 | +0.6 |
| Celeste-Tel | 21 Sept | 3 Nov | -1.4 | -2.1 | +0.3 | +1.4 | – |
| Data10 | 27 Aug | 3 Nov | -0.5 | -1.9 | -0.7 | +1.7 | +0.6 |
| Ateneo del Dato | 1 Oct | 22 Oct | -0.6 | -2.1 | +0.1 | +0.6 | – |
| More in Common | 28 Aug | 25 Oct | -1.0 | -0.4 | +0.6 | +0.5 | – |
| Winston | 1 Oct | 23 Oct | – | -1.9 | +2.2 | +0.1 | – |
End of fieldwork; each date links to the poll's source. Changes in points.
What happened
- 2 Oct · Congress rejects two housing decree-laws (eviction protections, limits on purchases by investment funds, aid and tax breaks) with votes from PP, Vox and Junts.
- 5 Oct · After an extraordinary cabinet meeting, Sánchez announces the dissolution of the Cortes and a general election on 29 November, saying he needs a broader majority.
- 6 Oct · The dissolution decree is published in the BOE; the new chambers will meet on 23 December.
- 12 Oct · IU, Movimiento Sumar, Comuns and Más Madrid propose Ada Colau as the Frente Amplio's candidate for prime minister; Podemos stays outside.
Sources
- Diario de León, Sánchez convoca elecciones generales para el 29 de noviembre tras la crisis de los decretos de vivienda (5 Oct 2026)
- Artículo 14, Pedro Sánchez convoca elecciones generales anticipadas para el 29 de noviembre (5 Oct 2026)
- El País, El Frente Amplio propone a Ada Colau como candidata a la presidencia (12 Oct 2026)
- Ara, Ada Colau será la candidata del Frente Amplio (12 Oct 2026)
- Wikipedia, 2026 Spanish general election
How we measure
- Same pollster, before and after: comparing different pollsters would mistake their usual differences for movement.
- A candidate 'rose' or 'fell' only when at least 3 pollsters all moved the same way and the average change is 1.5 points or more; under 1 point is 'little change'; anything else is 'mixed'.
- Events are chosen by Sondagio and described from the cited sources. Polls: every published poll, as in the race's average.
- Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. No figures are adjusted by hand.