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The Strait of Hormuz closes and Australia faces a fuel crisis

2 March 2026 – 11 March 2026Updated

The polls barely moved: no party or candidate changed by more than 0.9 points on average.

On 2 March 2026 the Strait of Hormuz was closed as part of the Iran war, triggering a fuel crisis in Australia. Nine days later Matt Canavan replaced David Littleproud as Nationals leader. How the federal polls moved before and after. Comparing each pollster with itself: its last poll before 1 March 2026 and its first poll starting on or after 3 March 2026, for the 9 pollsters that polled in both periods.

The polls moved after these events. That does not mean the events caused the change: other news happened in the same weeks, and each poll has a margin of error of about 2 to 3 points.

Change by party or candidate

9 pollsters
PartyAverage changeRangePollsters up / downVerdictAverage now
Labor-0.9-3.0 … +1.02 / 5Little change26.3%
One Nation+0.8-2.0 … +6.06 / 3Little change26.8%
Greens+0.7-1.0 … +1.07 / 1Little change13.1%
Others+0.6-1.0 … +2.04 / 1Little change10.8%
Liberal/National Coalition-0.2-5.0 … +2.05 / 4Little change23.0%

Each pollster, before and after

Before ≤ 1 Mar · After ≥ 3 Mar
PollsterBeforeAfter Labor One Nation Greens Others LNP
Roy Morgan1 Mar15 Mar-2.0+0.5+1.00.0+0.5
RedBridge/Accent27 Feb27 Mar0.0+1.0+1.00.0+2.0
DemosAU20 Feb14 Apr-3.0-2.0+1.0+2.0+2.0
Newspoll26 Feb26 Mar-1.0-1.0+1.00.0+1.0
Resolve14 Feb14 Mar-3.0+1.0+1.0+1.0-1.0
Essential23 Feb23 Mar+1.0+2.0-1.0+1.0-2.0
YouGov24 Feb10 Mar+1.0+2.00.00.0+2.0
Freshwater18 Jan29 Mar-1.0+6.0+1.0-1.0-5.0
Fox & Hedgehog19 Feb25 Mar0.0-2.0+1.0+2.0-1.0

End of fieldwork; each date links to the poll's source. Changes in points.

What happened

Sources

How we measure

Full poll average for this race →