The Urda rail crash and the transport minister's resignation
The polls barely moved: no party or candidate changed by more than 0.9 points on average.
On 28 October a high-speed AVE train ran into a stationary Iryo train near Urda (Toledo), killing 69 people, a month before the general election. Most parties paused their pre-campaign; Transport Minister Óscar Puente resigned on 3 November. How the polls moved before and after. Comparing each pollster with itself: its last poll before 27 October 2026 and its first poll starting on or after 29 October 2026, for the 10 pollsters that polled in both periods.
The polls moved after these events. That does not mean the events caused the change: other news happened in the same weeks, and each poll has a margin of error of about 2 to 3 points.
Change by party or candidate
10 pollsters| Party | Average change | Range | Pollsters up / down | Verdict | Average now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Podemos | -0.9 | -1.7 … +0.1 | 1 / 9 | Little change | 1.8% |
| PSOE | -0.4 | -1.5 … +1.8 | 3 / 7 | Little change | 26.8% |
| Adelante Andalucía | +0.3 | -0.1 … +0.8 | 3 / 2 | Little change | 1.5% |
| ERC | +0.2 | 0.0 … +0.5 | 5 / 0 | Little change | 2.4% |
| Frente Amplio | -0.2 | -0.8 … +0.3 | 3 / 2 | Little change | 6.3% |
| Partido Popular | -0.2 | -2.1 … +1.3 | 5 / 4 | Little change | 31.5% |
| PNV | -0.1 | -0.3 … 0.0 | 0 / 5 | Little change | 0.8% |
| Vox | +0.1 | -1.2 … +1.4 | 6 / 4 | Little change | 19.0% |
New since the event: Front Valencià, on 1.3% on average in the 3 polls after it.
Each pollster, before and after
Before ≤ 27 Oct · After ≥ 29 Oct| Pollster | Before | After | Podemos | PSOE | AA | ERC | FA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EM-Analytics | 23 Oct | 6 Nov | +0.1 | -1.4 | -0.1 | 0.0 | +0.3 |
| Sigma Dos | 22 Oct | 30 Oct | -0.9 | -1.5 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +0.1 |
| 40dB | 8 Oct | 4 Nov | -1.1 | +1.8 | – | – | – |
| NC Report | 24 Oct | 5 Nov | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.0 | +0.3 |
| DYM | 7 Oct | 6 Nov | -1.7 | -0.9 | – | – | – |
| GAD3 | 8 Oct | 5 Nov | -0.9 | -0.5 | +0.6 | +0.1 | – |
| Celeste-Tel | 21 Sept | 3 Nov | -1.4 | +0.3 | – | +0.2 | – |
| Data10 | 2 Oct | 3 Nov | -1.2 | -1.4 | +0.8 | +0.4 | – |
| Ateneo del Dato | 22 Oct | 5 Nov | -1.2 | +1.0 | – | – | -0.7 |
| IMOP | 16 Oct | 6 Nov | -0.7 | -1.2 | – | +0.4 | -0.8 |
End of fieldwork; each date links to the poll's source. Changes in points.
What happened
- 28 Oct · A Renfe AVE collides with a stationary Iryo train near Urda (Toledo), about 140 km south of Madrid. Sánchez and Feijóo cancel their schedules; every party except Vox pauses its pre-campaign.
- 30 Oct · Puente rules out resigning and points to a failure at Adif's control centre as the main cause; the PP demands political accountability.
- 3 Nov · After appearing before Congress's Standing Committee, Puente announces his resignation, saying a transport minister cannot stay on after two accidents in one year (the first was Adamuz, Córdoba, in January, with 46 dead). He also withdraws from the PSOE's lists for 29 November.
Sources
- Euronews, Puente descarta dimitir y apunta a un fallo en el centro de control de Adif (30 Oct 2026)
- BBC News Mundo via Teletica, Renuncia ministro de Transportes de España tras el choque de trenes que causó 69 muertos (3 Nov 2026)
- Artículo 14, Sánchez y Feijóo cancelan toda su agenda por el choque de trenes (28 Oct 2026)
- Diari de Tarragona, Vox mantiene su agenda del 29-N pese al accidente de tren en Toledo (Oct 2026)
- Wikipedia, 2026 Spanish general election
How we measure
- Same pollster, before and after: comparing different pollsters would mistake their usual differences for movement.
- A candidate 'rose' or 'fell' only when at least 3 pollsters all moved the same way and the average change is 1.5 points or more; under 1 point is 'little change'; anything else is 'mixed'.
- Events are chosen by Sondagio and described from the cited sources. Polls: every published poll, as in the race's average.
- Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. No figures are adjusted by hand.