How the final polls did: New Zealand general election 2026
The final polls were off by 0.8 points a party
Sondagio's final average used 5 polls from 5 pollsters, with fieldwork to 3 November 2026. Against the count, the average missed each party by 0.8 points on average. The biggest miss was National: polled at 27.2%, it got 29.21%, 2.0 points higher. The polls had Labour first by 2.0 points; it finished first by 0.16. On seats, the widest gap was National: our estimate gave it 33, it won 42.
- 0.8mean miss
- +2.0biggest miss: National
- ✓first place: called
- +9seats v estimate: National
Party by party
% of the vote| Party | Final average | Result | Difference | Seats, estimate | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 29.2 | 29.37 | +0.2 | 35 | 36 |
| National | 27.2 | 29.21 | +2.0 | 33 | 42 |
| Green | 14.8 | 13.30 | −1.5 | 18 | 16 |
| ACT | 10.3 | 10.92 | +0.6 | 12 | 13 |
| NZ First | 10.0 | 9.78 | −0.2 | 12 | 12 |
| The Opportunity Party | 6.5 | 5.96 | −0.5 | 8 | 7 |
| Te Pāti Māori | 1.3 | 0.57 | −0.7 | 4 | 5 |
| Others | 0.7 | 0.89 | +0.2 | – | – |
- National, ACT and NZ First: polled 47.5% (57 seats), got 49.91% (67).
- Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori: polled 45.3% (57 seats), got 43.24% (57).
Difference: result minus final average, in points. Seats, estimate: what the final average gave under our seat method (122 seats); result: 131. Preliminary count of election night, before special votes; the official result follows about three weeks later.
How this is measured
- The average is the one on the race page before voting, frozen on 3 November 2026: 1 News–Verian, RNZ–Reid Research, Roy Morgan, Taxpayers' Union–Curia, The Post, polls of the last 21 days.
- Mean miss is the average of the absolute differences over the named parties; "Others" is left out because it is what remains to 100.
- A poll average is a measure of opinion some days before the vote, not a forecast; late movement and turnout show up here as misses all the same.
Sources: Electoral Commission, election-night preliminary count ↗ (7 November 2026, 100.0% counted); the polls, each linked to its publisher ↗. The race page · Every election compared