Castilla-La Mancha regional election 2027: polls
PSOE 43%, 13 points ahead of PP.
The PSOE is on 43.3% in the polls for the regional election in Castilla-La Mancha on 23 May 2027, ahead of the PP (30.4%), based on one poll only (SocioMétrica, September 2026). The newest poll finished fieldwork on . In the SocioMétrica poll, PSOE wins 16–18 seats of 33; an absolute majority is 17. In 2023 the PSOE came first with 45.0% and 17 seats.
- 43.3%PSOE, one poll only
- 12.9 ptsPSOE lead over PP
- 16–18PSOE seats in the poll (on the edge of a majority)
- 17absolute majority (of 33)
Castilla-La Mancha poll average
Vote estimate · one poll only (SocioMétrica, September 2026) · fieldwork 14 Sept to 17 September 2026| Party | One poll only | Range across pollsters | Polls | Seats in the poll | 2023 vote | 2023 seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Socialist Party (PSOE) | 43.3% | 43.3 | 1 | 16–18 | 45.0% | 17 |
 People's Party (PP) | 30.4% | 30.4 | 1 | 11–12 | 33.7% | 12 |
 Vox | 15.6% | 15.6 | 1 | 4–5 | 12.8% | 4 |
 Podemos | 3.7% | 3.7 | 1 | 0 | 4.2% | 0 |
 Sumar | 2.7% | 2.7 | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| CsCiudadanos (Cs) | – | – | – | – | 1.0% | 0 |
One poll only (SocioMétrica for El Español, fieldwork 14 Sept 26 – 17 Sept 26): we show its figures as published, with no averaging. Seats: as published by SocioMétrica (El Español) in its poll of 17 September 2026; Sondagio does not make its own regional seat projection. Turnout in 2023: 69.6%.
Logos: Wikimedia Commons (public domain).
Latest Castilla-La Mancha polls
18 polls · vote % and seats as each pollster published them| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | PSOE | PP | Vox | Podemos | Sumar | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sept 26 – 17 Sept 26 | SocioMétrica / El Español | 1,200 | 43.316–18 seats | 30.411–12 seats | 15.64–5 seats | 3.70 seats | 2.70 seats | source ↗ |
| 18 May 26 – 22 May 26 | Sigma Dos / El Mundo | 1,227 | 40.815–17 seats | 31.311–12 seats | 16.85–6 seats | 6.60 seats | – | source ↗ |
| 6 May 26 – 20 May 26 | NC Report / PP · commissioned by a party | 2,500 | 40.315 seats | 35.113 seats | 15.95 seats | 1.50 seats | 3.20 seats | source ↗ |
| 11 May 26 – 15 May 26 | Idus3 / PSOE · commissioned by a party | 2,000 | 44.518–19 seats | 27.810–11 seats | 16.34–5 seats | 3.90 seats | 2.50 seats | source ↗ |
| 10 Mar 26 – 16 Mar 26 | NC Report / Diario Lanza | 800 | 41.516 seats | 34.312 seats | 15.85 seats | 1.10 seats | 3.70 seats | source ↗ |
| 27 Nov 25 – 27 Dec 25 | EM-Analytics / Electomanía | 1,340 | 44.316 seats | 35.313 seats | 14.24 seats | 1.90 seats | 2.90 seats | source ↗ |
| 17 Dec 25 – 23 Dec 25 | Target Point / El Debate | 1,204 | 40.515–16 seats | 34.712–13 seats | 16.15 seats | 5.70 seats | – | source ↗ |
| 19 May 25 – 29 May 25 | Sigma Dos / El Mundo | 1,032 | 47.117–18 seats | 32.511–12 seats | 12.54 seats | 4.00 seats | – | source ↗ |
| 12 May 25 – 20 May 25 | Idus3 / PSOE · commissioned by a party | 1,700 | 46.218–19 seats | 32.811–13 seats | 12.01–3 seats | 1.50 seats | 3.30 seats | source ↗ |
| 13 May 25 – 15 May 25 | Target Point / El Debate | 1,001 | 43.215–16 seats | 34.613 seats | 13.44–5 seats | 4.50 seats | – | source ↗ |
| 7 Jan 25 – 10 Jan 25 | Idus3 / PSOE · commissioned by a party | 1,700 | 46.417–19 seats | 31.310–12 seats | 13.73–4 seats | – | 3.80 seats | source ↗ |
| 25 Nov 24 – 13 Dec 24 | NC Report / La Razón | 1,700 | 42.615 seats | 35.214 seats | 13.64 seats | 3.80 seats | – | source ↗ |
| 30 Apr 24 – 27 May 24 | EM-Analytics / Electomanía | 1,340 | 46.719 seats | 35.713 seats | 10.91 seats | 0.70 seats | 2.70 seats | source ↗ |
| 22 Apr 24 – 10 May 24 | The Place Public Affairs / PSOE · commissioned by a party | 4,904 | 47.919–20 seats | 31.210–13 seats | 12.51–4 seats | – | 5.40 seats | source ↗ |
| 26 Mar 24 – 29 Apr 24 | EM-Analytics / Electomanía | 1,340 | 47.719 seats | 35.013 seats | 11.41 seats | 0.80 seats | 2.20 seats | source ↗ |
| 29 Jan 24 – 26 Feb 24 | EM-Analytics / Electomanía | 1,340 | 47.719 seats | 34.713 seats | 10.81 seats | 0.70 seats | 2.90 seats | source ↗ |
| 24 Dec 23 – 28 Jan 24 | EM-Analytics / Electomanía | 1,340 | 47.419 seats | 34.513 seats | 11.21 seats | 0.70 seats | 3.00 seats | source ↗ |
| 25 Nov 23 – 23 Dec 23 | EM-Analytics / Electomanía | 1,340 | 47.619 seats | 34.213 seats | 11.11 seats | 0.70 seats | 3.20 seats | source ↗ |
Vote estimate (%) and, below it, seats as projected by the pollster. “?”: the poll published seats only; such polls are not in the average. Polls commissioned by a party (NC Report/PP, Idus3/PSOE and The Place Public Affairs/PSOE) are shown but not counted in the average.
What is at stake in Castilla-La Mancha on 23 May 2027
Castilla-La Mancha is one of Spain's 17 autonomous communities, with its own parliament and government. Voters elect the 33 members of the Cortes of Castilla-La Mancha (Cortes de Castilla-La Mancha) from party lists, on the same day as municipal elections across Spain; the chamber then elects the regional president. An absolute majority is 17 seats; short of that, a party needs allies or abstentions to win the investiture vote. The current president is Emiliano García-Page (PSOE). Main candidates: Emiliano García-Page (PSOE), Francisco Núñez (PP) and David Moreno (Vox).
The parties in the polls:
- Socialist Party (PSOE): Spain's main centre-left party.
- People's Party (PP): Spain's main centre-right party.
- Vox: the national hard-right party.
- Podemos: a left-wing party born from the 2011 anti-austerity protests.
- Sumar: the left-wing alliance to the left of the PSOE.
In the 2023 election, on a turnout of 69.6%, PSOE won 45.0% (17 seats), PP won 33.7% (12 seats) and Vox won 12.8% (4 seats). In 2023 Podemos ran in coalition with other left-wing groups in several regions; the figure is for that list.
More polls: all of Spain's 2027 regional elections (Asturias, Cantabria, La Rioja, Madrid, Murcia, Navarre) and the Spain general election poll average.
How we calculate
- Average: each pollster's latest poll with fieldwork ending in the 90 days before the newest Castilla-La Mancha poll; a simple average by party. Few regional polls are published, so the window counts back from the newest poll, not from today. Where there is only one, we show that poll and label it “one poll only”.
- Polls commissioned by a party, and polls that only publish seats, are left out of the average. The seats shown are those of the newest poll that publishes them; Sondagio does not calculate its own seat allocation.
- Spanish electoral law (LOREG, art. 69.7) bans publishing polls in Spain in the five days before the vote (18 to 22 May 2027). During that period the figures are frozen.
- Data: every published poll, compiled on Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0); the 2023 results come from the same table. Each row links to the original publication. Party colours are indicative.
- Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. The averages are calculated by formula from every published poll; no figures are adjusted by hand.
Updated .