Murcia regional election 2027: polls
PP 43%, 18 points ahead of Vox.
The PP is on 43.1% in the polls for the regional election in the Region of Murcia on 23 May 2027, ahead of Vox (25.4%), based on one poll only (CEMOP, September 2026). The newest poll finished fieldwork on . In the CEMOP poll, PP wins 21–22 seats of 45; an absolute majority is 23. In 2023 the PP came first with 42.8% and 21 seats.
- 43.1%PP, one poll only
- 17.7 ptsPP lead over Vox
- 21–22PP seats in the poll (short of a majority)
- 23absolute majority (of 45)
Murcia poll average
Vote estimate · one poll only (CEMOP, September 2026) · fieldwork 1 Sept to 17 September 2026| Party | One poll only | Range across pollsters | Polls | Seats in the poll | 2023 vote | 2023 seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 People's Party (PP) | 43.1% | 43.1 | 1 | 21–22 | 42.8% | 21 |
 Vox | 25.4% | 25.4 | 1 | 12 | 17.7% | 9 |
 Socialist Party (PSOE) | 17.7% | 17.7 | 1 | 9–10 | 25.6% | 13 |
 Podemos | 5.3% | 5.3 | 1 | 2 | 4.7% | 2 |
| MCCCartagena Citizens' Movement (MCC) | – | – | – | – | 3.0% | 0 |
One poll only (CEMOP, fieldwork 1 Sept 26 – 17 Sept 26): we show its figures as published, with no averaging. Seats: as published by CEMOP in its poll of 17 September 2026; Sondagio does not make its own regional seat projection. Turnout in 2023: 63.2%.
Logos: Wikimedia Commons (public domain).
Latest Murcia polls
25 polls · vote % and seats as each pollster published them| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | PP | Vox | PSOE | Podemos | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 26 – 17 Sept 26 | CEMOP | 821 | 43.121–22 seats | 25.412 seats | 17.79–10 seats | 5.32 seats | source ↗ |
| 22 May 26 – 29 May 26 | Sigma Dos / El Mundo | 1,180 | 43.521–22 seats | 18.89 seats | 24.011–12 seats | 6.12–3 seats | source ↗ |
| 18 May 26 – 21 May 26 | Sigma Dos / La 7 | 1,000 | ?21–22 seats | ?9–10 seats | ?12–13 seats | ?2–3 seats | source ↗ |
| 13 Apr 26 – 28 Apr 26 | OBEDE / UCAM | 800 | 43.821–22 seats | 23.011 seats | 24.512 seats | 2.90–1 seats | source ↗ |
| 20 Jan 26 – 6 Feb 26 | CEMOP | 820 | 37.719 seats | 25.712 seats | 24.112 seats | 4.32 seats | source ↗ |
| 18 Nov 25 – 28 Nov 25 | OBEDE / UCAM | 800 | 37.619 seats | 27.213 seats | 23.311 seats | – | source ↗ |
| 3 Nov 25 – 21 Nov 25 | CEMOP | 820 | 38.319 seats | 25.312 seats | 23.912 seats | 5.52 seats | source ↗ |
| 30 Aug 25 – 28 Sept 25 | EM-Analytics / Electomanía | 1,310 | 43.321 seats | 15.47 seats | 31.115 seats | 1.50 seats | source ↗ |
| 1 Sept 25 – 12 Sept 25 | CEMOP | 820 | 36.118 seats | 27.913 seats | 25.812 seats | 5.62 seats | source ↗ |
| 26 Apr 25 – 5 Jun 25 | Sigma Dos / El Mundo | 1,072 | 43.821–22 seats | 17.58–9 seats | 26.513–14 seats | 4.51–2 seats | source ↗ |
| 16 May 25 – 31 May 25 | NC Report / La Razón | 350 | ?24 seats | ?9 seats | ?12 seats | – | source ↗ |
| 16 Apr 25 – 19 Apr 25 | SyM Consulting | 1,000 | 41.019–20 seats | 23.411 seats | 26.412–13 seats | 4.32 seats | source ↗ |
| 24 Mar 25 – 4 Apr 25 | CEMOP | 820 | 42.821 seats | 22.410 seats | 24.512 seats | 4.12 seats | source ↗ |
| 28 Nov 24 – 28 Dec 24 | EM-Analytics / Electomanía | 1,310 | 42.121 seats | 13.87 seats | 31.316 seats | 2.10 seats | source ↗ |
| 25 Nov 24 – 11 Dec 24 | CEMOP | 820 | 46.623 seats | 20.710 seats | 23.911 seats | 3.11 seats | source ↗ |
| 15 Nov 24 – 29 Nov 24 | OBEDE / UCAM | 800 | 46.323 seats | 19.610 seats | 23.312 seats | – | source ↗ |
| 15 Oct 24 – 19 Oct 24 | SyM Consulting | 1,000 | 45.422 seats | 19.59 seats | 25.812–13 seats | 4.01–2 seats | source ↗ |
| 23 Sept 24 – 4 Oct 24 | CEMOP | 820 | 44.122 seats | 18.89 seats | 24.912 seats | 5.12 seats | source ↗ |
| 2 Sept 24 – 11 Sept 24 | Sigma Dos / La 7 | 1,004 | 46.822–23 seats | 16.37–8 seats | 26.612–13 seats | 4.31–2 seats | source ↗ |
| 13 Jul 24 – 16 Jul 24 | NC Report / La Razón | 1,000 | 47.024 seats | 15.98 seats | 23.812 seats | 3.11 seats | source ↗ |
| 15 Jul 24 – 16 Jul 24 | Data10 / OKDiario | 1,500 | 46.623 seats | 14.27 seats | 27.714 seats | 3.41 seats | source ↗ |
| 20 May 24 – 30 May 24 | CEMOP | 820 | 46.122 seats | 17.98 seats | 26.913 seats | 4.72 seats | source ↗ |
| 5 Mar 24 – 22 Mar 24 | CEMOP | 818 | 47.723 seats | 16.78 seats | 24.312 seats | 5.42 seats | source ↗ |
| 11 Jan 24 – 22 Jan 24 | CEMOP | 817 | 41.821 seats | 20.410 seats | 24.812 seats | 5.12 seats | source ↗ |
| 3 Jul 23 – 13 Jul 23 | CEMOP | 1,200 | 44.322 seats | 17.58–9 seats | 25.312–13 seats | 5.72 seats | source ↗ |
Vote estimate (%) and, below it, seats as projected by the pollster. “?”: the poll published seats only; such polls are not in the average.
What is at stake in Murcia on 23 May 2027
The Region of Murcia is one of Spain's 17 autonomous communities, with its own parliament and government. Voters elect the 45 members of the Regional Assembly of Murcia (Asamblea Regional de Murcia) from party lists, on the same day as municipal elections across Spain; the chamber then elects the regional president. An absolute majority is 23 seats; short of that, a party needs allies or abstentions to win the investiture vote. The current president is Fernando López Miras (PP). Main candidates: Fernando López Miras (PP), Francisco Lucas Ayala (PSOE), Rubén Martínez (Vox) and María Marín (Podemos).
The parties in the polls:
- People's Party (PP): Spain's main centre-right party.
- Vox: the national hard-right party.
- Socialist Party (PSOE): Spain's main centre-left party.
- Podemos: a left-wing party born from the 2011 anti-austerity protests.
In the 2023 election, on a turnout of 63.2%, PP won 42.8% (21 seats), PSOE won 25.6% (13 seats), Vox won 17.7% (9 seats) and Podemos won 4.7% (2 seats). In 2023 Podemos ran in coalition with other left-wing groups in several regions; the figure is for that list.
More polls: all of Spain's 2027 regional elections (Asturias, Cantabria, Castilla-La Mancha, La Rioja, Madrid, Navarre) and the Spain general election poll average.
How we calculate
- Average: each pollster's latest poll with fieldwork ending in the 90 days before the newest Murcia poll; a simple average by party. Few regional polls are published, so the window counts back from the newest poll, not from today. Where there is only one, we show that poll and label it “one poll only”.
- Polls commissioned by a party, and polls that only publish seats, are left out of the average. The seats shown are those of the newest poll that publishes them; Sondagio does not calculate its own seat allocation.
- Spanish electoral law (LOREG, art. 69.7) bans publishing polls in Spain in the five days before the vote (18 to 22 May 2027). During that period the figures are frozen.
- Data: every published poll, compiled on Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0); the 2023 results come from the same table. Each row links to the original publication. Party colours are indicative.
- Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. The averages are calculated by formula from every published poll; no figures are adjusted by hand.
Updated .