Bavaria state polls
Next state election: 2028Bavarian Landtag
PollsCSU 37%, AfD 20%.
The CSU leads the Sondagio average in Bavaria on 37.0% (2023 election: 37.0%), ahead of the AfD on 20.3%. The average takes the latest poll from 3 pollsters in the 6 months before the newest poll, dated 19 October 2026.
Latest pollInfratest dimap · · 1,089 respondents
CSU 36%AfD 21%Grüne 15%FW 9%SPD 8%Linke 4%
Polling average
% of the vote · compared with the 2023 election| Party | Average | Range | Election 2023 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSU | 37.0% | 36.0 – 38.0 | 37.0% | ±0.0 |
| AfD | 20.3% | 18.0 – 22.0 | 14.6% | +5.7 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | 14.3% | 13.0 – 15.0 | 14.4% | −0.1 |
| Freie Wähler | 10.3% | 9.0 – 12.0 | 15.8% | −5.5 |
| SPD | 7.0% | 6.0 – 8.0 | 8.4% | −1.4 |
| Die Linke | 3.3% · below 5% | 3.0 – 4.0 | 1.5% | +1.8 |
| FDP | 2.0% · below 5% | 2.0 – 2.0 | 3.0% | −1.0 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht | 2.0% · below 5% | 2.0 – 2.0 | – | new |
Pollsters in the average: Infratest dimap, GMS, Civey. Threshold: 5% of the vote.
All polls
51 polls since the 2023 election · newest first| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | CSU | AfD | Grüne | FW | SPD | Linke | FDP | BSW | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 26 – 19 Oct 26 | Infratest dimap | 1,089 | 36 | 21 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 4 | – | – | source ↗ |
| 14 Oct 26 – 19 Oct 26 | GMS | 1,011 | 37 | 22 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 2 | – | source ↗ |
| 2 Oct 26 – 16 Oct 26 | Civey | 5,000 | 38 | 18 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | source ↗ |
| 27 Aug 26 – 10 Sept 26 | Civey | 5,000 | 38 | 20 | 13 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 30 Jul 26 – 13 Aug 26 | Civey | 5,000 | 38 | 20 | 13 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 2 Jul 26 – 17 Jul 26 | Civey | 5,000 | 37 | 19 | 14 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 28 May 26 – 12 Jun 26 | Civey | 5,000 | 38 | 19 | 14 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 29 Apr 26 – 13 May 26 | Civey | 5,000 | 37 | 19 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 3 Apr 26 – 17 Apr 26 | Civey | 5,000 | 38 | 19 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 26 Feb 26 – 12 Mar 26 | Civey | 5,000 | 39 | 17 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 25 Feb 26 – 3 Mar 26 | GMS | 1,003 | 39 | 18 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | source ↗ |
| 29 Jan 26 – 12 Feb 26 | Civey | 5,000 | 40 | 18 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | source ↗ |
| 1 Jan 26 – 15 Jan 26 | Civey | 5,000 | 40 | 18 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | source ↗ |
| 8 Jan 26 – 12 Jan 26 | Infratest dimap | 1,177 | 39 | 19 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 3 | – | – | source ↗ |
| 23 Dec 25 – 5 Jan 26 | GMS | 1,006 | 39 | 19 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | source ↗ |
| 27 Nov 25 – 11 Dec 25 | Civey | 5,000 | 37 | 21 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | source ↗ |
| 5 Dec 25 – 10 Dec 25 | GMS | 1,005 | 40 | 19 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | source ↗ |
| 30 Oct 25 – 13 Nov 25 | Civey | 5,000 | 40 | 20 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | source ↗ |
| 24 Sept 25 – 8 Oct 25 | Civey | 5,000 | 38 | 20 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | source ↗ |
| 24 Sept 25 – 29 Sept 25 | GMS | 1,017 | 39 | 19 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | source ↗ |
| 29 Aug 25 – 12 Sept 25 | Civey | 5,000 | 40 | 20 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | source ↗ |
| 1 Sept 25 – 10 Sept 25 | Forsa | 1,012 | 37 | 19 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | source ↗ |
| 30 Jul 25 – 14 Aug 25 | Civey | 5,000 | 41 | 20 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | source ↗ |
| 25 Jun 25 – 10 Jul 25 | Civey | 5,002 | 37 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 30 May 25 – 13 Jun 25 | Civey | 5,001 | 39 | 22 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 25 Apr 25 – 14 May 25 | Civey | 5,004 | 39 | 19 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | source ↗ |
| 28 Mar 25 – 11 Apr 25 | Civey | 5,006 | 39 | 18 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | source ↗ |
| 28 Feb 25 – 14 Mar 25 | Civey | 5,006 | 41 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | source ↗ |
| 30 Jan 25 – 13 Feb 25 | Civey | 5,007 | 41 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 4 | source ↗ |
| 3 Jan 25 – 17 Jan 25 | Civey | 5,011 | 43 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 28 Nov 24 – 12 Dec 24 | Civey | 5,001 | 42 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 4 | source ↗ |
| 1 Nov 24 – 15 Nov 24 | Civey | 5,008 | 44 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 4 | source ↗ |
| 11 Oct 24 – 18 Oct 24 | Civey | 5,001 | 42 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 3 | – | source ↗ |
| 7 Oct 24 – 14 Oct 24 | INSA | 1,000 | 43 | 18 | 10 | 11 | 8 | – | – | 5 | source ↗ |
| 11 Sept 24 – 16 Sept 24 | GMS | 1,048 | 42 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 6 | source ↗ |
| 5 Sept 24 – 12 Sept 24 | Civey | 5,002 | 42 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 2 | – | source ↗ |
| 9 Aug 24 – 16 Aug 24 | Civey | 5,002 | 42 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 3 | – | source ↗ |
| 22 Jul 24 – 2 Aug 24 | Forsa | 1,036 | 43 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 8 | – | 2 | 4 | source ↗ |
| 11 Jul 24 – 18 Jul 24 | Civey | 5,004 | 42 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 3 | – | source ↗ |
| 7 Jun 24 – 14 Jun 24 | Civey | 5,004 | 41 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 3 | – | source ↗ |
| 3 May 24 – 10 May 24 | Civey | 5,005 | 41 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 3 | – | source ↗ |
| 30 Apr 24 – 6 May 24 | GMS | 1,023 | 41 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 4 Apr 24 – 11 Apr 24 | Civey | 5,002 | 42 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 3 | – | source ↗ |
| 8 Mar 24 – 15 Mar 24 | Civey | 5,001 | 42 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 2 | – | source ↗ |
| 9 Feb 24 – 16 Feb 24 | Civey | 5,001 | 40 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 3 | – | source ↗ |
| 31 Jan 24 – 5 Feb 24 | GMS | 1,018 | 42 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 11 Jan 24 – 15 Jan 24 | Infratest dimap | 1,161 | 40 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 7 | – | 3 | – | source ↗ |
| 4 Jan 24 – 11 Jan 24 | Civey | 5,000 | 41 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | – | source ↗ |
| 27 Dec 23 – 2 Jan 24 | GMS | 1,002 | 41 | 14 | 13 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 3 | – | source ↗ |
| 8 Dec 23 – 15 Dec 23 | Civey | 4,999 | 41 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | – | source ↗ |
| 10 Nov 23 – 17 Nov 23 | Civey | 5,001 | 40 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 3 | – | source ↗ |
| 8 Oct 23 | 2023 election | – | 37 | 14.6 | 14.4 | 15.8 | 8.4 | 1.5 | 3 | – | – |
Other states
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- Bremen state election · 30 May 2027
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- Saxony state polls · 2029
- Thuringia state polls · 2029
- Hamburg state polls · 2030
- Baden-Württemberg state polls · 2031
- Berlin state polls · 2031
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state polls · 2031
- Rhineland-Palatinate state polls · 2031
- Saxony-Anhalt state polls · 2031
- Germany federal election polls
How we calculate it
- Average: each pollster's latest poll with fieldwork ending in the 180 days before the newest poll; simple mean per party. State polls are rare, so the window is longer than for the federal average.
- Data: every published poll, as compiled on Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). Each row links to the original publication.
- No blackout: polls may be published up to election day; only exit polls are banned before 6 pm.
- Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate, party or campaign. Nothing is adjusted by hand. Full method →