Lower Saxony state election 2027: polls
Landtag of Lower Saxony · 146 seats
Polls-318days to the election
SPD 26%, CDU 22%.
The SPD leads the Sondagio average in Lower Saxony on 26.0% (2022 election: 33.4%), ahead of the CDU on 22.0%. The average takes the latest poll from one pollster in the 6 months before the newest poll, dated 8 September 2026. State polls are rare: the newest one is 65 days old.
Latest pollINSA · · 1,000 respondents
SPD 26%CDU 22%AfD 21%Grüne 15%Linke 6%FDP 5%BSW 3%
Polling average
% of the vote · compared with the 2022 election| Party | Average | Range | Election 2022 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPD | 26.0% | 26.0 – 26.0 | 33.4% | −7.4 |
| CDU | 22.0% | 22.0 – 22.0 | 28.1% | −6.1 |
| AfD | 21.0% | 21.0 – 21.0 | 11.0% | +10.0 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | 15.0% | 15.0 – 15.0 | 14.5% | +0.5 |
| Die Linke | 6.0% | 6.0 – 6.0 | 2.7% | +3.3 |
| FDP | 5.0% | 5.0 – 5.0 | 4.7% | +0.3 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht | 3.0% · below 5% | 3.0 – 3.0 | – | new |
Pollsters in the average: INSA. Threshold: 5% of the vote. The Landtag has at least 146 seats; this election has 90 constituencies instead of 87.
All polls
13 polls since the 2022 election · newest first| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | SPD | CDU | AfD | Grüne | Linke | FDP | BSW | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 26 – 8 Sept 26 | INSA | 1,000 | 26 | 22 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 14 Apr 26 – 21 Apr 26 | INSA | 1,000 | 25 | 25 | 20 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 12 Jan 26 – 29 Jan 26 | Allensbach | 1,064 | 26 | 27 | 21 | 10 | 7 | 3 | – | source ↗ |
| 12 Nov 25 – 17 Nov 25 | Infratest dimap | 1,156 | 26 | 26 | 20 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | source ↗ |
| 10 Feb 25 – 17 Feb 25 | INSA | 1,000 | 25 | 30 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | source ↗ |
| 11 Nov 24 – 29 Nov 24 | Allensbach | 1,007 | 27 | 33 | 16 | 10 | – | 4 | 4 | source ↗ |
| 4 Nov 24 – 11 Nov 24 | INSA | 1,000 | 26 | 31 | 15 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 6 | source ↗ |
| 31 Oct 24 – 6 Nov 24 | Infratest dimap | 1,159 | 25 | 32 | 15 | 12 | – | – | 4 | source ↗ |
| 19 Dec 23 – 12 Jan 24 | Allensbach | 1,070 | 29 | 30 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 4 | – | source ↗ |
| 6 Nov 23 – 11 Nov 23 | Infratest dimap | 1,178 | 26 | 28 | 18 | 13 | – | 5 | – | source ↗ |
| 9 Oct 23 – 16 Oct 23 | INSA | 1,000 | 27 | 29 | 17 | 13 | 3 | 4 | – | source ↗ |
| 15 Jun 23 – 30 Jun 23 | Allensbach | 1,101 | 32 | 29 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 5 | – | source ↗ |
| 1 Feb 23 – 8 Feb 23 | Forsa | 2,007 | 33 | 26 | 10 | 17 | 3 | 5 | – | source ↗ |
| 9 Oct 22 | 2022 election | – | 33.4 | 28.1 | 11 | 14.5 | 2.7 | 4.7 | – | – |
Other states
Polls in all 16 states and nationally- Saarland state election · 18 April 2027
- Schleswig-Holstein state election · 18 April 2027
- North Rhine-Westphalia state election · 25 April 2027
- Bremen state election · 30 May 2027
- Bavaria state polls · 2028
- Hesse state polls · 2028
- Brandenburg state polls · 2029
- Saxony state polls · 2029
- Thuringia state polls · 2029
- Hamburg state polls · 2030
- Baden-Württemberg state polls · 2031
- Berlin state polls · 2031
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state polls · 2031
- Rhineland-Palatinate state polls · 2031
- Saxony-Anhalt state polls · 2031
- Germany federal election polls
How we calculate it
- Average: each pollster's latest poll with fieldwork ending in the 180 days before the newest poll; simple mean per party. State polls are rare, so the window is longer than for the federal average.
- Data: every published poll, as compiled on Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). Each row links to the original publication.
- No blackout: polls may be published up to election day; only exit polls are banned before 6 pm.
- Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate, party or campaign. Nothing is adjusted by hand. Full method →