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Édouard Philippe

Édouard Philippe 2027 polls: French presidential election

Horizons, the centre-right party he founded in 2021, part of the centrist Ensemble alliance formed around Emmanuel Macron

Philippe 15%, 3rd in the first round.

As of , Édouard Philippe (Horizons, the centre-right party he founded in 2021, part of the centrist Ensemble alliance formed around Emmanuel Macron) has 15.0% of first-round voting intention for the 2027 presidential election, in 3rd place, on the Sondagio average of the latest poll from each of 7 pollsters (scenario with Édouard Philippe as the only centrist candidate). Individual pollsters put Philippe between 13.0% and 17.0%. Across every scenario tested (33 published since 1 Oct), Philippe's score ranges from 9.5% to 17.0%.

  • 15.0%Sondagio average
  • 3rdfirst-round rank
  • 13–17range across pollsters
  • 19polls tracked
Polls with fieldwork up to · All candidates · Methodology (in French)

Who is Édouard Philippe?

Prime minister from 2017 to 2020 and mayor of Le Havre. Emmanuel Macron cannot stand again: the constitution limits a president to two consecutive terms.

Édouard Philippe in the polls: trend

First round · % of valid votes
051015202515.0%Toluna Harris Interactive, 8 Jul: 20.0%Ifop, 25 Aug: 18.0%Elabe, 28 Aug: 17.0%Cluster17, 1 Sept: 16.5%Ipsos BVA, 2 Sept: 19.0%OpinionWay, 3 Sept: 20.0%Toluna Harris Interactive, 10 Sept: 17.0%Cluster17, 16 Sept: 18.6%Ifop, 29 Sept: 21.0%Odoxa, 7 Oct: 17.0%Toluna Harris Interactive, 8 Oct: 17.0%YouGov, 15 Oct: 13.0%Elabe, 16 Oct: 16.5%Ifop, 19 Oct: 15.0%Toluna Harris Interactive, 21 Oct: 16.0%Cluster17, 22 Oct: 14.8%Ipsos BVA, 22 Oct: 15.0%Ifop, 29 Oct: 15.0%Toluna Harris Interactive, 5 Nov: 14.0%Jul 2026Nov 2026
Each dot is one poll from the last twelve months (reference scenario). The line is the current Sondagio average.

Same-pollster comparison: of the 5 pollsters with at least two polls in the last twelve months, 0 have Philippe at least a point higher in their latest poll than in their first, 4 at least a point lower and 1 within a point.

Édouard Philippe in the second round

Polls and Sondagio model
Poll averageSondagio model: measured vote transfers (estimate)

Le Pen v Philippe

Polls6 pollsters54.645.4
Sondagio modelmeasured vote transfers51.748.3

Range across pollsters for Philippe: 42.0 – 48.0. The model puts Philippe on 48.3, 2.9 points more than the polls, and between 41.7 and 54.3 in 8 simulations out of 10. Philippe's chance of winning: 35%.

All second-round match-ups →

Every Édouard Philippe poll

Reference scenario · newest first
Fieldwork endPollsterCommissioned byPhilippeNotice
5 November 2026Toluna Harris Interactive–14.0notice ↗
29 October 2026IfopLCI15.0notice ↗
22 October 2026Ipsos BVALe Parisien15.0notice ↗
22 October 2026Cluster17Politico14.8notice ↗
21 October 2026Toluna Harris Interactive–16.0notice ↗
19 October 2026Ifop–15.0notice ↗
16 October 2026Elabe–16.5notice ↗
15 October 2026YouGovLe HuffPost13.0notice ↗
8 October 2026Toluna Harris Interactive–17.0notice ↗
7 October 2026OdoxaPublic Sénat, presse régionale, Le Nouvel Obs17.0notice ↗
29 September 2026Ifop–21.0notice ↗
16 September 2026Cluster17Politico18.6notice ↗
10 September 2026Toluna Harris InteractiveRTL17.0notice ↗
3 September 2026OpinionWayJDD20.0notice ↗
2 September 2026Ipsos BVALe Parisien19.0notice ↗
1 September 2026Cluster17Le Point16.5notice ↗
28 August 2026Elabe–17.0notice ↗
25 August 2026Ifop–18.0notice ↗
8 July 2026Toluna Harris InteractiveRTL20.0notice ↗

Notices are the methodology filings published by the Commission des sondages (in French).

The other candidates

How we calculate

All 2027 candidates → · First-round polls →

Photo: Jacques Paquier, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons, cropped and halftoned.