Marine Le Pen 2027 polls: French presidential election

Rassemblement National (RN), the far-right party

Le Pen 34%, leading in the first round.

As of 5 November 2026, Marine Le Pen (Rassemblement National (RN), the far-right party) has 34.3% of first-round voting intention for the 2027 presidential election, in first place, on the Sondagio average of the latest poll from each of 7 pollsters (scenario with Édouard Philippe as the only centrist candidate). Individual pollsters put Le Pen between 28.2% and 37.0%. Across every scenario tested (46 published since 1 Oct), Le Pen's score ranges from 26.0% to 38.0%.

34.3%Sondagio average
1stfirst-round rank
28–37range across pollsters
19polls tracked

Polls with fieldwork up to 5 Nov · All candidates · Methodology (in French)

Who is Marine Le Pen?

Presidential candidate in 2012, 2017 and 2022; she reached the run-off against Emmanuel Macron in 2017 and 2022. She is eligible to stand in 2027: in July 2026 the Paris Court of Appeal upheld her 2025 conviction in the European Parliament assistants case but shortened her ban from public office so that it no longer covers the election. She has appealed to the Court of Cassation.

Marine Le Pen in the polls: trend

First round · % of valid votes

Each dot is one poll from the last twelve months (reference scenario). The line is the current Sondagio average.

Same-pollster comparison: of the 5 pollsters with at least two polls in the last twelve months, 3 have Le Pen at least a point higher in their latest poll than in their first, 2 at least a point lower and 0 within a point.

Marine Le Pen in the second round

Polls and Sondagio model

Poll averageSondagio model: measured vote transfers (estimate)

Le Pen v Mélenchon

Most likely run-off on first-round polling

Polls6 pollsters68.3

31.7

Sondagio modelmeasured vote transfers64.9

35.1

Range across pollsters for Mélenchon: 31.0 – 32.0. The model puts Mélenchon on 35.1, 3.4 points more than the polls, and between 29.7 and 40.3 in 8 simulations out of 10. Mélenchon's chance of winning: under 1%.

Le Pen v Philippe

Polls6 pollsters54.6

45.4

Sondagio modelmeasured vote transfers51.7

48.3

Range across pollsters for Philippe: 42.0 – 48.0. The model puts Philippe on 48.3, 2.9 points more than the polls, and between 41.7 and 54.3 in 8 simulations out of 10. Philippe's chance of winning: 35%.

Le Pen v Glucksmann

Polls5 pollsters56.3

43.7

Sondagio modelmeasured vote transfers56.5

43.5

Range across pollsters for Glucksmann: 40.0 – 46.5. The model puts Glucksmann on 43.5, 0.2 point less than the polls, and between 38.7 and 48.3 in 8 simulations out of 10. Glucksmann's chance of winning: 4%.

All second-round match-ups →

Every Marine Le Pen poll

Reference scenario · newest first

Fieldwork end	Pollster	Commissioned by	Le Pen	Notice
5 November 2026	Toluna Harris Interactive	–	36.0	notice ↗
29 October 2026	Ifop	LCI	37.0	notice ↗
22 October 2026	Ipsos BVA	Le Parisien	33.5	notice ↗
22 October 2026	Cluster17	Politico	28.2	notice ↗
21 October 2026	Toluna Harris Interactive	–	35.0	notice ↗
19 October 2026	Ifop	–	36.0	notice ↗
16 October 2026	Elabe	–	32.5	notice ↗
15 October 2026	YouGov	Le HuffPost	36.0	notice ↗
8 October 2026	Toluna Harris Interactive	–	36.0	notice ↗
7 October 2026	Odoxa	Public Sénat, presse régionale, Le Nouvel Obs	37.0	notice ↗
29 September 2026	Ifop	–	33.0	notice ↗
16 September 2026	Cluster17	Politico	27.0	notice ↗
10 September 2026	Toluna Harris Interactive	RTL	34.0	notice ↗
3 September 2026	OpinionWay	JDD	33.0	notice ↗
2 September 2026	Ipsos BVA	Le Parisien	34.5	notice ↗
1 September 2026	Cluster17	Le Point	26.1	notice ↗
28 August 2026	Elabe	–	34.0	notice ↗
25 August 2026	Ifop	–	33.0	notice ↗
8 July 2026	Toluna Harris Interactive	RTL	34.0	notice ↗

Notices are the methodology filings published by the Commission des sondages (in French).

Marine Le Pen's results in past presidential elections

First round · official results

Election	First round
Presidential 2012	17.90%
Presidential 2017	21.30%
Presidential 2022	23.15%

Share of valid votes, all of France. Source: French Ministry of the Interior.

The other candidates

How we calculate

Average: the latest poll from each pollster in the reference scenario, from the notices French pollsters must file with the Commission des sondages, the official poll regulator.
Second round: the poll average of each tested match-up, alongside a Sondagio model built from measured vote transfers (polls and the 2024 run-offs). The model is an estimate, not a poll.
Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. The averages are calculated by formula from every published poll; no figures are adjusted by hand.

All 2027 candidates → · First-round polls →

Photo: VOX España, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons, cropped and halftoned.