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Raphaël Glucksmann

Raphaël Glucksmann 2027 polls: French presidential election

Place Publique (with the Socialist Party, PS), on the centre-left

Glucksmann 13%, 4th in the first round.

As of , Raphaël Glucksmann (Place Publique (with the Socialist Party, PS), on the centre-left) has 12.9% of first-round voting intention for the 2027 presidential election, in 4th place, on the Sondagio average of the latest poll from each of 7 pollsters (scenario with Édouard Philippe as the only centrist candidate). Individual pollsters put Glucksmann between 9.5% and 15.5%. Across every scenario tested (41 published since 1 Oct), Glucksmann's score ranges from 9.5% to 16.5%.

  • 12.9%Sondagio average
  • 4thfirst-round rank
  • 10–16range across pollsters
  • 19polls tracked
Polls with fieldwork up to · All candidates · Methodology (in French)

Who is Raphaël Glucksmann?

Member of the European Parliament; he led the joint Place Publique and Socialist list at the 2024 European election.

Raphaël Glucksmann in the polls: trend

First round · % of valid votes
0510152012.9%Toluna Harris Interactive, 8 Jul: 11.0%Ifop, 25 Aug: 12.0%Elabe, 28 Aug: 11.5%Cluster17, 1 Sept: 12.4%Ipsos BVA, 2 Sept: 12.0%OpinionWay, 3 Sept: 12.0%Toluna Harris Interactive, 10 Sept: 10.0%Cluster17, 16 Sept: 12.9%Ifop, 29 Sept: 11.0%Odoxa, 7 Oct: 9.5%Toluna Harris Interactive, 8 Oct: 10.0%YouGov, 15 Oct: 13.0%Elabe, 16 Oct: 15.5%Ifop, 19 Oct: 14.0%Toluna Harris Interactive, 21 Oct: 13.0%Cluster17, 22 Oct: 14.9%Ipsos BVA, 22 Oct: 14.0%Ifop, 29 Oct: 11.5%Toluna Harris Interactive, 5 Nov: 12.0%Jul 2026Nov 2026
Each dot is one poll from the last twelve months (reference scenario). The line is the current Sondagio average.

Same-pollster comparison: of the 5 pollsters with at least two polls in the last twelve months, 4 have Glucksmann at least a point higher in their latest poll than in their first, 0 at least a point lower and 1 within a point.

Raphaël Glucksmann in the second round

Polls and Sondagio model
Poll averageSondagio model: measured vote transfers (estimate)

Le Pen v Glucksmann

Polls5 pollsters56.343.7
Sondagio modelmeasured vote transfers56.543.5

Range across pollsters for Glucksmann: 40.0 – 46.5. The model puts Glucksmann on 43.5, 0.2 point less than the polls, and between 38.7 and 48.3 in 8 simulations out of 10. Glucksmann's chance of winning: 4%.

All second-round match-ups →

Every Raphaël Glucksmann poll

Reference scenario · newest first
Fieldwork endPollsterCommissioned byGlucksmannNotice
5 November 2026Toluna Harris Interactive–12.0notice ↗
29 October 2026IfopLCI11.5notice ↗
22 October 2026Ipsos BVALe Parisien14.0notice ↗
22 October 2026Cluster17Politico14.9notice ↗
21 October 2026Toluna Harris Interactive–13.0notice ↗
19 October 2026Ifop–14.0notice ↗
16 October 2026Elabe–15.5notice ↗
15 October 2026YouGovLe HuffPost13.0notice ↗
8 October 2026Toluna Harris Interactive–10.0notice ↗
7 October 2026OdoxaPublic Sénat, presse régionale, Le Nouvel Obs9.5notice ↗
29 September 2026Ifop–11.0notice ↗
16 September 2026Cluster17Politico12.9notice ↗
10 September 2026Toluna Harris InteractiveRTL10.0notice ↗
3 September 2026OpinionWayJDD12.0notice ↗
2 September 2026Ipsos BVALe Parisien12.0notice ↗
1 September 2026Cluster17Le Point12.4notice ↗
28 August 2026Elabe–11.5notice ↗
25 August 2026Ifop–12.0notice ↗
8 July 2026Toluna Harris InteractiveRTL11.0notice ↗

Notices are the methodology filings published by the Commission des sondages (in French).

The other candidates

How we calculate

All 2027 candidates → · First-round polls →

Photo: Mathieu Delmestre, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons, cropped and halftoned.