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Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 2027 polls: French presidential election

La France Insoumise (LFI), the radical-left party he founded in 2016

Mélenchon 18%, 2nd in the first round.

As of , Jean-Luc Mélenchon (La France Insoumise (LFI), the radical-left party he founded in 2016) has 17.5% of first-round voting intention for the 2027 presidential election, in 2nd place, on the Sondagio average of the latest poll from each of 7 pollsters (scenario with Édouard Philippe as the only centrist candidate). Individual pollsters put Mélenchon between 15.0% and 21.3%. Across every scenario tested (46 published since 1 Oct), Mélenchon's score ranges from 15.0% to 22.5%.

  • 17.5%Sondagio average
  • 2ndfirst-round rank
  • 15–21range across pollsters
  • 19polls tracked
Polls with fieldwork up to · All candidates · Methodology (in French)

Who is Jean-Luc Mélenchon?

Presidential candidate in 2012, 2017 and 2022; in 2022 he finished third, 1.2 points behind Marine Le Pen.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the polls: trend

First round · % of valid votes
05101520253017.5%Toluna Harris Interactive, 8 Jul: 16.0%Ifop, 25 Aug: 17.0%Elabe, 28 Aug: 14.0%Cluster17, 1 Sept: 19.7%Ipsos BVA, 2 Sept: 15.0%OpinionWay, 3 Sept: 16.0%Toluna Harris Interactive, 10 Sept: 17.0%Cluster17, 16 Sept: 20.9%Ifop, 29 Sept: 16.0%Odoxa, 7 Oct: 18.0%Toluna Harris Interactive, 8 Oct: 18.0%YouGov, 15 Oct: 15.0%Elabe, 16 Oct: 15.0%Ifop, 19 Oct: 16.5%Toluna Harris Interactive, 21 Oct: 17.0%Cluster17, 22 Oct: 21.3%Ipsos BVA, 22 Oct: 17.0%Ifop, 29 Oct: 17.5%Toluna Harris Interactive, 5 Nov: 19.0%Jul 2026Nov 2026
Each dot is one poll from the last twelve months (reference scenario). The line is the current Sondagio average.

Same-pollster comparison: of the 5 pollsters with at least two polls in the last twelve months, 4 have Mélenchon at least a point higher in their latest poll than in their first, 0 at least a point lower and 1 within a point.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the second round

Polls and Sondagio model
Poll averageSondagio model: measured vote transfers (estimate)

Le Pen v Mélenchon

Most likely run-off on first-round polling
Polls6 pollsters68.331.7
Sondagio modelmeasured vote transfers64.935.1

Range across pollsters for Mélenchon: 31.0 – 32.0. The model puts Mélenchon on 35.1, 3.4 points more than the polls, and between 29.7 and 40.3 in 8 simulations out of 10. Mélenchon's chance of winning: under 1%.

All second-round match-ups →

Every Jean-Luc Mélenchon poll

Reference scenario · newest first
Fieldwork endPollsterCommissioned byMélenchonNotice
5 November 2026Toluna Harris Interactive–19.0notice ↗
29 October 2026IfopLCI17.5notice ↗
22 October 2026Ipsos BVALe Parisien17.0notice ↗
22 October 2026Cluster17Politico21.3notice ↗
21 October 2026Toluna Harris Interactive–17.0notice ↗
19 October 2026Ifop–16.5notice ↗
16 October 2026Elabe–15.0notice ↗
15 October 2026YouGovLe HuffPost15.0notice ↗
8 October 2026Toluna Harris Interactive–18.0notice ↗
7 October 2026OdoxaPublic Sénat, presse régionale, Le Nouvel Obs18.0notice ↗
29 September 2026Ifop–16.0notice ↗
16 September 2026Cluster17Politico20.9notice ↗
10 September 2026Toluna Harris InteractiveRTL17.0notice ↗
3 September 2026OpinionWayJDD16.0notice ↗
2 September 2026Ipsos BVALe Parisien15.0notice ↗
1 September 2026Cluster17Le Point19.7notice ↗
28 August 2026Elabe–14.0notice ↗
25 August 2026Ifop–17.0notice ↗
8 July 2026Toluna Harris InteractiveRTL16.0notice ↗

Notices are the methodology filings published by the Commission des sondages (in French).

Jean-Luc Mélenchon's results in past presidential elections

First round · official results
ElectionFirst round
Presidential 201211.10%
Presidential 201719.58%
Presidential 202221.95%

Share of valid votes, all of France. Source: French Ministry of the Interior.

The other candidates

How we calculate

All 2027 candidates → · First-round polls →

Photo: jlm2017.fr, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons, cropped and halftoned.