2028 Republican primary polls
Primaries and caucuses from early 2028Nationwide · 15 states polled
PollsVance 39%, Rubio 23%.
As of , JD Vance leads national polls of the 2028 Republican primary with 38.6%, 15.9 points ahead of Marco Rubio (22.7%), in the Sondagio average of the latest poll from 7 pollsters. The field is not set: pollsters test different names, so each figure averages the polls that included that person.
- 7pollsters in the average
- 15.9 ptsVance–Rubio gap
- 114national polls since 2024
- 15states with a poll
Latest pollMcLaughlin & Associates · · 427 voters
Vance 38%Rubio 17%Trump Jr. 14%DeSantis 7%Haley 4%Cruz 3%
Flashpoints: events and the polls
Same pollster, before and after- Trump tells donors 'we need to elect JD': Donald Trump Jr. rose with 3 of 4 pollsters (+2.5).
2028 Republican primary: national poll average
% of Republican primary voters| Candidate | Average | Range across pollsters | In polls |
|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 38.6% | 32.9 – 44.0 | 7 of 7 |
| Marco Rubio | 22.7% | 17.0 – 45.6 | 7 of 7 |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 11.9% | 2.3 – 24.0 | 6 of 7 |
| Ron DeSantis | 8.2% | 4.5 – 12.0 | 6 of 7 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 5.0% | 2.0 – 9.0 | 4 of 7 |
| Ted Cruz | 2.9% | 1.4 – 5.0 | 6 of 7 |
| Nikki Haley | 4.0% | 3.0 – 5.0 | 3 of 7 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 1.0% | 0.0 – 2.0 | 3 of 7 |
"In polls": how many of the 7 polls in the average named that person. Names tested in fewer than half of them (Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy) are listed last. Not averaged: Donald Trump (barred from a third term by the 22nd amendment); polls that named him are still listed below.
2028 Republican primary polls over time
Weekly average · national2028 Republican primary map: who leads each state
Latest poll in each state · tap a stateLoading the map…
United States · national average
Republican primary
7 pollsters · full average
Vance38.6%
Rubio22.7%
Trump Jr.11.9%
DeSantis8.2%
RFK Jr.5.0%
Cruz2.9%
Vance leads (13)Rubio leads (1)TiedNo poll yetShade = lead in the latest poll (solid 10+ pts, half 5-10, outline < 5)One poll per state, often months old · not averaged
Each state shows its latest Republican primary poll, not an average: most states have one or two polls, some from months ago. 15 of 50 states have been polled so far. Tap a state for the full poll.
2028 Republican primary polls by state
15 states · latest poll firstToo few state polls to average yet. Each state shows its most recent poll; open it for the others.
New Hampshire primary · 11 polls · latest Oct 2026Rubio 38% · Vance 38%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Rubio | Vance | DeSantis | Gabbard | Haley | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 – Oct 20 | Saint Anselm College | 734 | 38 | 38 | 5 | – | – | source ↗ |
| Aug 17 – Aug 18 | Saint Anselm College | 678 | 36 | 38 | 5 | – | – | source ↗ |
| Jul 15 – Jul 20 | University of New Hampshire | 573 | 26 | 36 | 6 | 4 | 8 | source ↗ |
| Jun 24 – Jun 25 | Saint Anselm College | 739 | 30 | 37 | 7 | 3 | – | source ↗ |
| Apr 22 – May 13 | Praecones Analytica · NH Journal | 350 | 10.2 | 42.7 | 5.1 | – | 8.5 | source ↗ |
| Mar 21 – Mar 23 | Emerson College | 529 | 17.7 | 42.8 | 4.5 | – | 6.2 | source ↗ |
| Mar 16 – Mar 18 | Saint Anselm College | 665 | 27 | 46 | 5 | 2 | 5 | source ↗ |
| Feb 12 – Feb 16 | University of New Hampshire | 664 | 7 | 53 | 6 | 2 | 9 | source ↗ |
| Nov 18 – Nov 19 | Saint Anselm College | 1,000 | 9 | 57 | 7 | 4 | 4 | source ↗ |
| Oct 16 – Oct 21 | University of New Hampshire | 679 | 5 | 51 | 3 | 8 | 9 | source ↗ |
| Aug 26 – Aug 27 | Saint Anselm College | 791 | 7 | 56 | 8 | 5 | 3 | source ↗ |
California primary · 3 polls · latest Mar 2026Vance 43% · Rubio 15%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Vance | Rubio | DeSantis | Cruz | Haley | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25 – Mar 3 | UC Berkeley Citrin Center · TrueDot / Politico | 362 | 43 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 3 | source ↗ |
| Dec 1 – Dec 2 | Emerson College · Nexstar Media | 339 | 51.8 | 11.2 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 3.1 | source ↗ |
| Aug 4 – Aug 5 | Emerson College | 221 | 39.6 | 4.2 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 4.6 | source ↗ |
Florida primary · 3 polls · latest Jul 2026Rubio 42% · Vance 24%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Rubio | Vance | DeSantis | Cruz | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27 – Jul 29 | Quantus Insights | 635 | 42 | 24.2 | 12.9 | 0.9 | source ↗ |
| May 13 – May 16 | Change Research | 951 | 33 | 32 | 19 | – | source ↗ |
| Feb 26 – Feb 27 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 600 | – | 47 | 33 | – | source ↗ |
Georgia primary · 3 polls · latest Sep 2026Vance 38% · Rubio 16%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Vance | Rubio | Kemp | DeSantis | Trump Jr. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 – Sep 23 | Big Data Poll | 328 | 37.5 | 15.6 | 14.7 | 12.9 | – | source ↗ |
| Apr 22 – Apr 24 | yes. every kid. | 603 | 44 | 22 | – | 6 | 8 | source ↗ |
| Jul 22 – Jul 23 | yes. every kid. | 608 | 48 | 7 | – | 9 | 9 | source ↗ |
Tennessee primary · 3 polls · latest Aug 2026Vance 56% · Rubio 22%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Vance | Rubio | DeSantis | Haley | Trump Jr. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15 – Aug 26 | Targoz Market Research | 608 | 56 | 22 | 11 | – | – | source ↗ |
| Jul 29 – Aug 1 | Wick.io | 600 | 39.1 | 31.8 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 2.8 | source ↗ |
| Mar 6 – Mar 10 | Spry Strategies | 600 | 55.2 | 6 | 7 | – | 2.5 | source ↗ |
Texas primary · 3 polls · latest Sep 2026Vance 41% · Rubio 16%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Vance | Rubio | RFK Jr. | Cruz | DeSantis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 – Sep 26 | Big Data Poll | 376 | 40.6 | 16 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 4.8 | source ↗ |
| Aug 24 – Aug 26 | Overton Insights | 578 | 28.8 | 29.5 | – | 6.5 | 11.2 | source ↗ |
| Aug 11 – Aug 12 | Emerson College | 491 | 44.6 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 8.8 | 6.1 | source ↗ |
Minnesota primary · 2 polls · latest Sep 2026Vance 40% · Rubio 23%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Vance | Rubio | DeSantis | Haley | RFK Jr. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29 – Sep 30 | Big Data Poll | 249 | 40 | 22.5 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | source ↗ |
| Jun 23 – Jun 25 | Minnesota Private Business Council | 1,601 | 47.4 | 31.4 | 3.8 | – | – | source ↗ |
North Carolina primary · 2 polls · latest Sep 2026Vance 40% · Rubio 18%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Vance | Rubio | RFK Jr. | DeSantis | Haley | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27 – Sep 29 | Big Data Poll | 331 | 40 | 18 | 10 | 9 | 5 | source ↗ |
| Jul 28 – Jul 30 | Emerson College | 405 | 53.3 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 2.7 | source ↗ |
Ohio primary · 2 polls · latest Sep 2026Vance 41% · Rubio 14%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Vance | Rubio | Gabbard | RFK Jr. | Haley | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 – Sep 27 | Big Data Poll | 340 | 40.7 | 14.4 | 10.6 | 7.1 | 6.2 | source ↗ |
| Aug 18 – Aug 19 | Emerson College | 490 | 55.4 | 8.9 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 4 | source ↗ |
Iowa caucus · 1 poll · latest Apr 2025Vance 47% · Haley 12%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Vance | Haley | Ramaswamy | DeSantis | Rubio | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 – Apr 15 | Poll Decision Science | 564 | 47 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 8 | – |
Maine primary · 1 poll · latest Oct 2025Vance 60% · DeSantis 11%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Vance | DeSantis | Haley | Rubio | Cruz | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 – Oct 21 | University of New Hampshire | 380 | 60 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | source ↗ |
Michigan primary · 1 poll · latest Apr 2026Vance 53% · Rubio 27%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Vance | Rubio | DeSantis | Trump Jr. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21 – Apr 24 | Glengariff Group | 500 | 52.5 | 26.7 | 7.9 | 2.8 | source ↗ |
Nevada caucus · 1 poll · latest Nov 2025Vance 63% · Rubio 7%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Vance | Rubio | DeSantis | Ramaswamy | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16 – Nov 18 | Emerson College | 310 | 63.3 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 3.6 | source ↗ |
South Carolina primary · 1 poll · latest Jul 2025Vance 46% · Haley 12%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Vance | Haley | Trump Jr. | DeSantis | Scott | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18 – Jul 21 | yes. every kid. | 406 | 46 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 5 | source ↗ |
Vermont primary · 1 poll · latest Oct 2025Vance 61% · Huckabee Sanders 8%
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Vance | Huckabee Sanders | DeSantis | Rubio | Gabbard | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 – Oct 21 | University of New Hampshire | 186 | 61 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | source ↗ |
Latest national 2028 Republican primary polls
40 most recent · newest first| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | Vance | Rubio | Trump Jr. | DeSantis | RFK Jr. | Cruz | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 – Nov 5 | McLaughlin & Associates | 427 LV | 38 | 17 | 14 | 7 | – | 3 | source ↗ |
| Oct 28 – Nov 1 | AtlasIntel | 3,566 LV | 32.9 | 45.6 | 2.3 | 4.5 | – | 1.4 | source ↗ |
| Oct 15 – Oct 21 | Clarity Campaign Labs | 413 LV | 40 | 17 | 17 | 9 | 5 | 2 | source ↗ |
| Oct 15 – Oct 19 | Echelon Insights | 417 LV | 38 | 20 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 4 | source ↗ |
| Oct 5 – Oct 7 | Noble Predictive Insights · The Center Square | 1,137 RV | 44 | 18 | – | 8 | – | 5 | source ↗ |
| Oct 2 – Oct 5 | Focaldata · Financial Times | 803 LV | 38 | 24 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 2 | source ↗ |
| Sep 26 – Sep 28 | Harvard Harris | RV | 39 | 17 | 24 | – | 9 | – | source ↗ |
| Sep 16 – Sep 22 | McLaughlin & Associates | 430 LV | 35 | 15 | 14 | 6 | – | 3 | source ↗ |
| Sep 17 – Sep 21 | Echelon Insights | 424 LV | 38 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 3 | source ↗ |
| Sep 11 – Sep 16 | Clarity Campaign Labs | 406 LV | 35 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 3 | source ↗ |
| Sep 13 – Sep 15 | Big Data Poll | 1,110 LV | 38 | 16 | – | 8 | 6 | 4 | source ↗ |
| Aug 28 – Sep 2 | Focaldata | 662 LV | 43 | 21 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 4 | source ↗ |
| Aug 25 – Sep 1 | Bowling Green State University · YouGov | 499 LV | 44 | 21 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 3 | source ↗ |
| Aug 26 – Aug 28 | Quantus Insights | 473 LV | 41 | 29 | 9 | 6 | – | – | source ↗ |
| Aug 18 – Aug 24 | McLaughlin & Associates | 433 LV | 32 | 12 | 19 | 6 | – | 2 | source ↗ |
| Aug 7 – Aug 11 | Focaldata | 874 A | 42 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 3 | source ↗ |
| Jul 19 – Jul 20 | Emerson College | – | 39 | 38 | 5 | 5 | – | – | source ↗ |
| Jul 9 – Jul 13 | Echelon Insights | 1,004 LV | 38 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 2 | source ↗ |
| Jul 11 – Jul 12 | Harvard Harris | 1,776 RV | 42 | 22 | 18 | – | 6 | – | source ↗ |
| Jul 8 – Jul 10 | YouGov | 369 A | 32 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 2 | source ↗ |
| Jul 3 – Jul 7 | Quantus Insights | 480 LV | 42 | 26 | – | 9 | – | 4 | source ↗ |
| Jul 1 – Jul 4 | Zogby Analytics | 375 LV | 51 | 13 | – | 13 | – | 5 | source ↗ |
| Jun 26 – Jun 30 | Focaldata | 727 LV | 40 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 2 | source ↗ |
| Jun 26 – Jun 28 | Big Data Poll | 1,166 LV | 37 | 18 | – | 8 | 7 | 5 | source ↗ |
| Jun 24 – Jun 26 | J.L. Partners · Daily Mail | 517 LV | 51 | 15 | – | 9 | – | 6 | source ↗ |
| Jun 17 – Jun 23 | McLaughlin & Associates | 440 RV | 35 | 15 | 14 | 5 | – | 3 | source ↗ |
| Jun 11 – Jun 14 | Echelon Insights | 418 LV | 42 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | source ↗ |
| Jun 5 – Jun 9 | Echelon Insights | 1,121 LV | 38 | 19 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | source ↗ |
| Jun 1 – Jun 4 | Noble Predictive Insights | 1,046 RV | 36 | 17 | – | 7 | – | 5 | source ↗ |
| May 29 – Jun 1 | Focaldata | 667 A | 37 | 18 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 3 | source ↗ |
| May 29 – May 31 | Harvard Harris | 1,725 RV | 45 | 21 | 21 | – | – | – | source ↗ |
| May 26 – May 28 | I&I · TIPP | 561 RV | 29 | 12 | 19 | 6 | 4 | 3 | source ↗ |
| May 24 – May 27 | Big Data Poll | 1,148 LV | 37.4 | 16.1 | – | 7.2 | 5.9 | 3.3 | source ↗ |
| May 24 – May 25 | Emerson College | 432 LV | 35.5 | 34.6 | – | 5.4 | 3.1 | 0.7 | source ↗ |
| May 16 – May 20 | Overton Insights | 509 | 39 | 32 | – | 9 | – | – | source ↗ |
| May 15 – May 19 | Daily Mail · JL Partners | 496 LV | 47 | 18 | – | 9 | – | 4 | – |
| May 12 – May 18 | McLaughlin & Associates | 431 LV | 32 | 15 | 13 | 6 | – | – | source ↗ |
| May 14 – May 18 | Echelon Insights | 418 LV | 36 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 2 | 2 | source ↗ |
| Apr 28 – May 17 | Lord Ashcroft Polls | 3,804 A | 32 | 13 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 3 | source ↗ |
| May 4 – May 7 | AtlasIntel | 2,069 A | 29.6 | 45.4 | 0.4 | 11.2 | – | – | source ↗ |
LV: likely voters · RV: registered voters · A: adults. – : name not tested in that poll.
How we calculate
- Average: each pollster's latest national poll with fieldwork ending in the 45 days before the newest poll, simple mean per candidate over the polls that named them.
- No one has formally entered the race for most of these names; figures measure support in hypothetical fields and move as candidates enter or rule themselves out.
- Donald Trump: Barred from a third term by the 22nd Amendment. He is left out of the average.
- States: polls are listed as published, not averaged. When the same poll appears under two states with identical figures, the copy is dropped.
- Data: every published poll, compiled on Wikipedia (national, by state; CC BY-SA 4.0). Each row links to the original release.
Independence: Sondagio's founder has no ties to any candidate or campaign. The averages are calculated by formula from every published poll; no figures are adjusted by hand.
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