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Spain election 2026 in Ceuta: polls and seat projection

Ceuta1 seat
D-16days to the election

PP estimated first in Ceuta, 35%.

As of 12 November 2026, PP is estimated at 34.7% in the constituency of Ceuta for Spain's general election on 29 November, against 32.4% for Vox, according to the Sondagio model. The single seat goes to the list with the most votes; across the 2,000 simulations, the 80% range is: PP 0–1 and Vox 0–1. PP tops the vote in 58% of simulations (Vox in 33% and PSOE in 9%). No polls of single provinces are published: the estimate applies the national average to the 2023 result.

In 2023, PP came first in Ceuta with 38.8% (official result).
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Estimate and seats in Ceuta

Sondagio model · D'Hondt, 3% threshold
PartyEstimated vote, %80% rangeSeatsTops the vote
PP34.729.7–39.50–158%
Vox32.427.5–37.10–133%
PSOE27.422.2–32.709%

Estimate: the national average of 16 pollsters applied to the 2023 result; 8 in 10 simulations fall inside the range. It is not a poll of Ceuta. Method.

The parties in Ceuta

who they are · who heads the list
PartyWho they areHeads the list
PPthe main centre-right party (People's Party), in opposition since 2018Rafael Martínez Peñalver Mateos
Voxradical-right Spanish nationalists, hard line on immigration and on Catalan and Basque nationalismAna Belén Cifuentes Cánovas
PSOEthe centre-left Socialist party of Prime Minister Pedro SánchezLuis Manuel Tovar Gálvez

6 lists stand for Congress in Ceuta. Source: lists proclaimed in the BOE of 3 November 2026, with the correction of 7 November. Every name on every list (in Spanish) →

2023 general election result in Ceuta

23 July 2023 · Congress · % of valid votes · official result
Party% of votesSeats
PP38.81
PSOE34.00
Vox23.30
Sumar2.50

Source: Spain's Interior Ministry, official results (compiled on Wikipedia, CC BY-SA 4.0).

Questions about the election in Ceuta

How many seats does Ceuta elect?
Ceuta elects 1 of the 350 members of Spain's Congress of Deputies at the general election of 29 November 2026, the same number as in 2023. The seat goes to the list with the most votes.
Who is ahead in Ceuta according to the polls?
In the Sondagio estimate as of 12 November 2026, PP comes first in Ceuta with 34.7% (between 29.7% and 39.5% in 80% of simulations), ahead of Vox on 32.4%. PP tops the vote in 58% of the 2,000 simulations; Vox in 33% and PSOE in 9%. Estimated seats: PP 0–1 and Vox 0–1.
Who heads the lists for Congress in Ceuta?
Rafael Martínez Peñalver Mateos (PP) and Ana Belén Cifuentes Cánovas (Vox). These are the lists officially proclaimed and published in Spain's state gazette (BOE) on 3 November 2026; 6 lists stand for Congress in Ceuta.
Are there polls of Ceuta for the general election?
Almost every poll of the general election is national and publishes no figures for Ceuta. The Sondagio estimate applies the national average of 16 pollsters to the 2023 result in Ceuta: it is a model, not a poll of the constituency.
When is Spain's general election?
Sunday 29 November 2026. Polling stations open from 9am to 8pm. Spanish law bans the publication of polls from 24 to 28 November.
Who won in Ceuta at the 2023 general election?
PP topped the vote in Ceuta on 23 July 2023 with 38.8% of valid votes. Seats: PP 1 (official result).

More on Spain's election

All 52 constituencies