Albert Park district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Greens 50% to win Albert Park (toss-up).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Greens wins Albert Park in 50% of simulations. The most likely final two is Liberal v Greens (64%). Albert Park is held by Labor (Nina Taylor); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 11.2 points.
Chance of winning Albert Park
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Greens | 50% | 25.0% |
| Labor | 33% | 23.7% |
| Liberal | 17% | 30.6% |
Expected first preferences: Liberal 30.6% · Greens 25.0% · Labor 23.7% · One Nation 11.6% · Others 5.0% · Independent 4.2%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 14%, Coalition 27%, Labor 27%, Greens 18%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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