Narre Warren South district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
One Nation 58% to win Narre Warren South (lean).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), One Nation wins Narre Warren South in 58% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v One Nation (65%). Narre Warren South is held by Labor (Gary Maas); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 8.3 points.
Chance of winning Narre Warren South
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| One Nation | 58% | 26.6% |
| Liberal | 29% | 26.2% |
| Labor | 14% | 27.8% |
Expected first preferences: Labor 27.8% · One Nation 26.6% · Liberal 26.2% · Others 10.2% · Greens 8.9%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 30%, Coalition 16%, Labor 29%, Greens 10%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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