Prahran district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Greens 97% to win Prahran (safe).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Greens wins Prahran in 97% of simulations. The most likely final two is Liberal v Greens (>99%). Prahran is held by Liberal (Rachel Westaway); in 2022 Greens won it, GRN v LIB, by 12.0 points.
Chance of winning Prahran
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Greens | 97% | 42.4% |
| Liberal | 3% | 29.1% |
Expected first preferences: Greens 42.4% · Liberal 29.1% · Labor 15.7% · One Nation 8.9% · Others 3.1%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 10%, Coalition 22%, Labor 29%, Greens 26%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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