Monbulk district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Liberal 64% to win Monbulk (lean).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Liberal wins Monbulk in 64% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v Liberal (58%). Monbulk is held by Labor (Daniela De Martino); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 7.6 points.
Chance of winning Monbulk
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 64% | 27.8% |
| Labor | 21% | 21.6% |
| One Nation | 10% | 19.6% |
| Greens | 5% | 18.3% |
Expected first preferences: Liberal 27.8% · Labor 21.6% · One Nation 19.6% · Greens 18.3% · Others 9.3% · Independent 3.5%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 22%, Coalition 24%, Labor 22%, Greens 15%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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