Ringwood district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Liberal 58% to win Ringwood (lean).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Liberal wins Ringwood in 58% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v Liberal (88%). Ringwood is held by Independent (Will Fowles); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 7.5 points.
Chance of winning Ringwood
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 58% | 34.5% |
| Labor | 39% | 25.3% |
| Greens | 3% | 18.9% |
Expected first preferences: Liberal 34.5% · Labor 25.3% · Greens 18.9% · One Nation 13.0% · Others 8.3%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 19%, Coalition 29%, Labor 27%, Greens 14%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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