Nepean district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Liberal 98% to win Nepean (safe).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Liberal wins Nepean in 98% of simulations. The most likely final two is Liberal v One Nation (51%). Nepean is held by Liberal (Sam Groth); in 2022 Liberal won it, LIB v ALP, by 6.4 points.
Chance of winning Nepean
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 98% | 40.9% |
| One Nation | 2% | 24.1% |
Expected first preferences: Liberal 40.9% · One Nation 24.1% · Labor 17.6% · Greens 11.3% · Others 5.5%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 31%, Coalition 30%, Labor 19%, Greens 8%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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